A couple of years ago I published a weekly matchups thread with charts for each game, and this year I'm bringing it back! While I'll normally share on Thursdays, I'm so excited for Week 1 to start that I'm sharing this week's today!
Let's have a great season, everyone! 🏈
Let's have a great season, everyone! 🏈
Before I start, here's a description of the 3 charts:
1. Comparing OFF vs. DEF key stat rankings
2. Player distribution of 2021/22 DK points
3. Player % of team rushing/receiving expected fpts
In addition to these charts, I'll also include one stat nugget relevant to that game!
1. Comparing OFF vs. DEF key stat rankings
2. Player distribution of 2021/22 DK points
3. Player % of team rushing/receiving expected fpts
In addition to these charts, I'll also include one stat nugget relevant to that game!
#Bills @ #Rams (+2.5)
Game total: 52
BUF implied team total: 27.25
LA implied team total: 24.75
Key stat: Buffalo's defensive pass EPA/play went from -0.112 (2nd) with Tre'Davious White (weeks 1-12) to 0.035 (15th) without him (weeks 13-20). He's out Thursday night.
Game total: 52
BUF implied team total: 27.25
LA implied team total: 24.75
Key stat: Buffalo's defensive pass EPA/play went from -0.112 (2nd) with Tre'Davious White (weeks 1-12) to 0.035 (15th) without him (weeks 13-20). He's out Thursday night.
#Saints @ #Falcons (+5.5)
Game total: 42.5
NO implied team total: 24
ATL implied team total: 18.5
Key stat: In the first 8 weeks with Jameis under center, NO ranked 28th in PROE. Now he gets Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave, all of whom played 0 snaps for NO in 2021
Game total: 42.5
NO implied team total: 24
ATL implied team total: 18.5
Key stat: In the first 8 weeks with Jameis under center, NO ranked 28th in PROE. Now he gets Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave, all of whom played 0 snaps for NO in 2021
#Browns @ #Panthers (-2.5)
Game total: 41.5
CLE implied team total: 19.5
CAR implied team total: 22
Key stat: In 7 healthy games last year, Christian McCaffrey averaged 20 opportunities per game - only 8 other RBs averaged that much last year.
Game total: 41.5
CLE implied team total: 19.5
CAR implied team total: 22
Key stat: In 7 healthy games last year, Christian McCaffrey averaged 20 opportunities per game - only 8 other RBs averaged that much last year.
#49ers @ #Bears (+7.5)
Game total: 41
SF implied team total: 24.25
CHI implied team total: 16.75
Key stat: Last year, 6.8% of Justin Fields' passes were dropped, the most among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks all season.
Game total: 41
SF implied team total: 24.25
CHI implied team total: 16.75
Key stat: Last year, 6.8% of Justin Fields' passes were dropped, the most among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks all season.
#Steelers @ #Bengals (-6.5)
Game total: 44.5
PIT implied team total: 19
CIN implied team total: 25.5
Key stat: Ben Roethlisberger averaged a paltry 2.18-second pocket time, the lowest in the league. A more mobile QB under center should open up more opportunities to extend plays.
Game total: 44.5
PIT implied team total: 19
CIN implied team total: 25.5
Key stat: Ben Roethlisberger averaged a paltry 2.18-second pocket time, the lowest in the league. A more mobile QB under center should open up more opportunities to extend plays.
#Eagles @ #Lions (+3.5)
Game total: 49
PHI implied team total: 26.25
DET implied team total: 22.75
Key stat: When leading in the second half of games, the Eagles led the league with a 51.9% rush rate.
Game total: 49
PHI implied team total: 26.25
DET implied team total: 22.75
Key stat: When leading in the second half of games, the Eagles led the league with a 51.9% rush rate.
#Colts @ #Texans (+8)
Game total: 46
IND implied team total: 27
HOU implied team total: 19
Key stat: In two games against the Texans last season, Jonathan Taylor totaled 288 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.
Game total: 46
IND implied team total: 27
HOU implied team total: 19
Key stat: In two games against the Texans last season, Jonathan Taylor totaled 288 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.
#Patriots @ #Dolphins (-3.5)
Game total: 47
NE implied team total: 21.75
MIA implied team total: 25.25
Key stat: Last year, Tua targeted TEs at a 29.2% rate, the highest among all QBs.
Game total: 47
NE implied team total: 21.75
MIA implied team total: 25.25
Key stat: Last year, Tua targeted TEs at a 29.2% rate, the highest among all QBs.
#Ravens @ #Jets (+7)
Game total: 45
BAL implied team total: 26
NYJ implied team total: 19
Key stat: Both the Ravens and Jets' defense allowed an explosive pass (15+ yards) rate over 10%, the worst in the league.
Game total: 45
BAL implied team total: 26
NYJ implied team total: 19
Key stat: Both the Ravens and Jets' defense allowed an explosive pass (15+ yards) rate over 10%, the worst in the league.
#Jaguars @ #Commanders (-2.5)
Game total: 43.5
JAX implied team total: 20.5
WAS implied team total: 23
Key stat: Only 5 QBs targeted RBs at a higher rate than Carson Wentz last year. Going from Hines/JT to McKissic/Gibson shouldn't change that much.
Game total: 43.5
JAX implied team total: 20.5
WAS implied team total: 23
Key stat: Only 5 QBs targeted RBs at a higher rate than Carson Wentz last year. Going from Hines/JT to McKissic/Gibson shouldn't change that much.
#Chiefs @ #Cardinals (+6)
Game total: 54
KC implied team total: 30
ARI implied team total: 24
Key stat: In the 2nd half of 2021, the Chiefs had the lowest aDOT (6.4 yards) but had he second-highest YAC/catch (6.9 yards).
Game total: 54
KC implied team total: 30
ARI implied team total: 24
Key stat: In the 2nd half of 2021, the Chiefs had the lowest aDOT (6.4 yards) but had he second-highest YAC/catch (6.9 yards).
#Raiders @ #Chargers (-3.5)
Game total: 52.5
LV implied team total: 24.5
LAC implied team total: 28
Key stat: This is the only matchup on the main DFS slate to feature two teams in the top 10 in PROE last season.
Game total: 52.5
LV implied team total: 24.5
LAC implied team total: 28
Key stat: This is the only matchup on the main DFS slate to feature two teams in the top 10 in PROE last season.
#Packers @ #Vikings (+2)
Game total: 47
GB implied team total: 24.5
MIN implied team total: 22.5
Key stat: The Vikings (6.6%) and Packers (6.4%) led the league in offensive turnover rate, both with less than 7% of drives ending in a turnover.
Game total: 47
GB implied team total: 24.5
MIN implied team total: 22.5
Key stat: The Vikings (6.6%) and Packers (6.4%) led the league in offensive turnover rate, both with less than 7% of drives ending in a turnover.
#Giants @ #Titans (-5.5)
Game total: 43.5
NYG implied team total: 19
TEN implied team total: 24.5
Key stat: The Giants' 40.3% rush rate on 1st down ranked 2nd-lowest in the league last year. The lowest? Buffalo, where Brian Daboll previously coached.
Game total: 43.5
NYG implied team total: 19
TEN implied team total: 24.5
Key stat: The Giants' 40.3% rush rate on 1st down ranked 2nd-lowest in the league last year. The lowest? Buffalo, where Brian Daboll previously coached.
#Buccaneers @ #Cowboys (+2.5)
Game total: 50.5
TB implied team total: 26.5
DAL implied team total: 24
Key stat: In their Week 1 matchup last year, Dallas featured a +21.7% PROE. The rest of the season it dipped to +0.8%.
Game total: 50.5
TB implied team total: 26.5
DAL implied team total: 24
Key stat: In their Week 1 matchup last year, Dallas featured a +21.7% PROE. The rest of the season it dipped to +0.8%.
#Broncos @ #Seahawks (+6.5)
Game total: 44.5
DEN implied team total: 25.5
SEA implied team total: 19
Key stat: Rashaad Penny's 1.84 rushing yards over expected per carry ranked first among RBs with at least 75 carries last year.
Game total: 44.5
DEN implied team total: 25.5
SEA implied team total: 19
Key stat: Rashaad Penny's 1.84 rushing yards over expected per carry ranked first among RBs with at least 75 carries last year.
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