Sam Hoppen Profile picture
Sep 6 18 tweets 19 min read
A couple of years ago I published a weekly matchups thread with charts for each game, and this year I'm bringing it back! While I'll normally share on Thursdays, I'm so excited for Week 1 to start that I'm sharing this week's today!

Let's have a great season, everyone! 🏈
Before I start, here's a description of the 3 charts:
1. Comparing OFF vs. DEF key stat rankings
2. Player distribution of 2021/22 DK points
3. Player % of team rushing/receiving expected fpts

In addition to these charts, I'll also include one stat nugget relevant to that game!
#Bills @ #Rams (+2.5)
Game total: 52
BUF implied team total: 27.25
LA implied team total: 24.75
Key stat: Buffalo's defensive pass EPA/play went from -0.112 (2nd) with Tre'Davious White (weeks 1-12) to 0.035 (15th) without him (weeks 13-20). He's out Thursday night.
#Saints @ #Falcons (+5.5)
Game total: 42.5
NO implied team total: 24
ATL implied team total: 18.5
Key stat: In the first 8 weeks with Jameis under center, NO ranked 28th in PROE. Now he gets Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave, all of whom played 0 snaps for NO in 2021
#Browns @ #Panthers (-2.5)
Game total: 41.5
CLE implied team total: 19.5
CAR implied team total: 22
Key stat: In 7 healthy games last year, Christian McCaffrey averaged 20 opportunities per game - only 8 other RBs averaged that much last year.
#49ers @ #Bears (+7.5)
Game total: 41
SF implied team total: 24.25
CHI implied team total: 16.75
Key stat: Last year, 6.8% of Justin Fields' passes were dropped, the most among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks all season.
#Steelers @ #Bengals (-6.5)
Game total: 44.5
PIT implied team total: 19
CIN implied team total: 25.5
Key stat: Ben Roethlisberger averaged a paltry 2.18-second pocket time, the lowest in the league. A more mobile QB under center should open up more opportunities to extend plays.
#Eagles @ #Lions (+3.5)
Game total: 49
PHI implied team total: 26.25
DET implied team total: 22.75
Key stat: When leading in the second half of games, the Eagles led the league with a 51.9% rush rate.
#Colts @ #Texans (+8)
Game total: 46
IND implied team total: 27
HOU implied team total: 19
Key stat: In two games against the Texans last season, Jonathan Taylor totaled 288 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.
#Patriots @ #Dolphins (-3.5)
Game total: 47
NE implied team total: 21.75
MIA implied team total: 25.25
Key stat: Last year, Tua targeted TEs at a 29.2% rate, the highest among all QBs.
#Ravens @ #Jets (+7)
Game total: 45
BAL implied team total: 26
NYJ implied team total: 19
Key stat: Both the Ravens and Jets' defense allowed an explosive pass (15+ yards) rate over 10%, the worst in the league.
#Jaguars @ #Commanders (-2.5)
Game total: 43.5
JAX implied team total: 20.5
WAS implied team total: 23
Key stat: Only 5 QBs targeted RBs at a higher rate than Carson Wentz last year. Going from Hines/JT to McKissic/Gibson shouldn't change that much.
#Chiefs @ #Cardinals (+6)
Game total: 54
KC implied team total: 30
ARI implied team total: 24
Key stat: In the 2nd half of 2021, the Chiefs had the lowest aDOT (6.4 yards) but had he second-highest YAC/catch (6.9 yards).
#Raiders @ #Chargers (-3.5)
Game total: 52.5
LV implied team total: 24.5
LAC implied team total: 28
Key stat: This is the only matchup on the main DFS slate to feature two teams in the top 10 in PROE last season.
#Packers @ #Vikings (+2)
Game total: 47
GB implied team total: 24.5
MIN implied team total: 22.5
Key stat: The Vikings (6.6%) and Packers (6.4%) led the league in offensive turnover rate, both with less than 7% of drives ending in a turnover.
#Giants @ #Titans (-5.5)
Game total: 43.5
NYG implied team total: 19
TEN implied team total: 24.5
Key stat: The Giants' 40.3% rush rate on 1st down ranked 2nd-lowest in the league last year. The lowest? Buffalo, where Brian Daboll previously coached.
#Buccaneers @ #Cowboys (+2.5)
Game total: 50.5
TB implied team total: 26.5
DAL implied team total: 24
Key stat: In their Week 1 matchup last year, Dallas featured a +21.7% PROE. The rest of the season it dipped to +0.8%.
#Broncos @ #Seahawks (+6.5)
Game total: 44.5
DEN implied team total: 25.5
SEA implied team total: 19
Key stat: Rashaad Penny's 1.84 rushing yards over expected per carry ranked first among RBs with at least 75 carries last year.

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