The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing.A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters. They are likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS.🧵
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reportedly withdrew the PMF Service and Retirement Law from the Iraqi parliamentary agenda on March 11.
The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed militias.
Unidentified actors conducted a drone strike targeting a Turkish base in Ninewa Province, Iraq, on March 12. This attack comes as Iran has appeared increasingly frustrated with Turkish influence in Syria and Turkish regional policy.
NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)
Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)
Putin noted that Russian societal unity is critical for Russian victory in Ukraine. Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues. (3/4)
NEW I Russia offered to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that Russia would help secure US interests through this mediation, however, especially regarding Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. 1/4
Russia has cooperated extensively with the Axis of Resistance over the past decade. This cooperation has included working with Iran and Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces in the Middle East. Russian and Iranian-backed forces conducted a combined attack on US forces in Syria in 2018, for example. 2/4
Russia also supported the Axis of Resistance against Israel throughout the October 7 War. The Kremlin provided targeting intelligence to the Houthis to support attacks on international shipping and US vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. 3/4
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.🧵
Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.
Russia is prioritizing its demand for the United States to return six Russian diplomatic properties, likely referring to properties US authorities previously seized on charges of being used for intelligence purposes.
NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) government agreed to several deals, including a Russian naval base, during separate diplomatic meetings with Iran and Russia in mid-February. 1/7
A Russian naval base in Sudan would support Russia’s strategic objective of threatening NATO’s southern flank from Africa and the Mediterranean Sea while decreasing Russian reliance on bases in Syria after the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in December 2024. 2/7
The SAF also signed several political and economic deals with Iran in mid-February as Iran seeks to grow bilateral ties with the SAF and secure an Iranian Red Sea naval base. 3/7
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and has continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 1/9 🧵🇨🇩🇷🇼
M23 advanced south from Bukavu toward Uvira, the second-most-populated city in South Kivu near Lake Tanganyika & Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura.
M23 also advanced southwest toward Kamituga, a gold mining hub and a gateway town to the south-central regions of the DRC. 2/9
M23 simultaneously restarted an offensive 265 miles north of Bukavu in North Kivu province along the RN2 toward the district capital of Lubero.
Lubero town is the last FARDC stronghold before the commercial hub Butembo. 3/9