Thread by @WarintheFuture

Throughout the Russian invasion of #Ukraine, I have watched and written about Russian #strategy in the war. In this thread, given ongoing Ukrainian offensives, I examine whether Russia has ceded the initiative to Ukraine. 1/25 🧵

2/ Since 24 February, Russian #strategy has evolved continuously. Putin’s Plan A, seven months ago, was for a lightening military operation conducted on multiple fronts to shock the Ukrainian military and government into submission and do it before the west could help.

3/ The plucky, courageous Ukrainians called their bluff and defeated the Russians in the north. And in the northeast. And rallied international support for military, humanitarian and economic support.

4/ Therefore, Putin, Lavrov and their military chiefs cobbled together an alternative theory of victory for #Ukraine. They better prioritised their military operations, and eschewed concurrent, multi-front offensives. They also improved air-land integration.

5/ Russia focussed its combat power on an eastern offensive, led by artillery. They went on the defensive in the south. This was accompanied by missile strikes – as well ‘energy warfare’ against Europe and drawing out the war to test western patience. bbc.com/news/world-eur…

6/ For a while, the Russians also drew Ukraine into a battle of attrition in the east. This was not how #Ukraine wanted to fight. It prefers to fight smart and strategically, using what I have described as a ‘strategy of corrosion’. But it all started to change in July.

7/ In July, introduction of #HIMARS, Russian losses in the east, and tactical realignments of Ukraine’s defensive scheme, allowed Ukraine to extract itself from the attrition battle in the east. Concurrently, the Ukrainians began attacks in #Kherson.

8/ In August I wrote how I thought the initiative was shifting from the Russians to the Ukrainians. The essence of seizing the initiative is gaining a position of advantage relative to an enemy and denying the enemy their objectives. abc.net.au/news/2022-08-0…

9/ Despite the courage of Ukraine’s defenders, Russian Army forces had until then retained the ability to conduct offensive thrusts at a time & place of their choosing.

10/ But the evolving situation on the ground around this time was changing the dynamic between invader and defender. The Ukrainians were almost at the point where they might be able to dictate where the fighting will occur.

11/ This week has seen shifts in Ukrainian momentum. Their campaign for the south has achieved the liberation of several towns, and the taking of ground. Importantly, it may have trapped thousands of Russians west of the Dnipro. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…

12/ And in the past day or so, a Ukrainian combined arms offensive in the northeast has seen advances deep into Russian held territory. While ambiguity abounds, the strategic initiative in this war may have shifted to the Ukrainians in the last few days.

13/ After seven months of vicious and desperate fighting, future historians may see this as an important turning point. It means the Ukrainians not only get to fight how & where they want, but their soldiers fight knowing the Russians are on the back foot. president.gov.ua/en/news/zagalo…

14/ Once battlefield momentum is generated, success tends to lead to success – if that momentum can be well shaped and continuously exploited. Clearly, much shaping, good leadership and support is still required. But success on the battlefield can be infectious.

15/ The Russians, while holding the initiative, have largely been unable to generate tactical (or operational) momentum. Bad leadership & support, poor battlefield integration, lack of reinforcements, early tactical defeats – and a bad overall strategy – have denied them this.

16/ For Russia, losing the initiative is another disaster on top of an invasion that that has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian people & corrosive for the Russian military. It is hard to see them regaining the initiative, short of a wholesale mobilisation of their nation.

17/ Now that the Russians may only be able to respond to Ukrainians offensives, morale and tactical effectiveness may very quickly decline. Added to the challenge is the attacks by partisans in the south against Russian soldiers, officials and transport infrastructure.

18/ The Ukrainians are generating an operational tempo that is dislocating Russian plans and forcing them to even more carefully prioritise airpower, logistics and reinforcements. If they maintain this tempo, Ukraine will ensure Russian decisions are made on old, irrelevant info.

19/ Given their current operations, and the political statements from President Zelensky, the seizure of Crimea is definitely in play. While this may or may not be a 2022 objective, the Russians must now plan as if it is one of Ukraine’s objectives before ‘war termination’.

20/ Military forces under pressure – especially those that are isolated or surrounded like those west of the Dnipro - can collapse catastrophically in the absence of excellent leadership. And, Russian military leadership in this war has not been a model for others to emulate.

21/ The combination of pressure on multiple fronts, limitations on reinforcements, the Ukrainian advantage of interior lines, western support, and clever tactics and leadership means the Russians are now under significant psychological pressure at all levels.

22/ With Russian battlefield and operational failures, challenges in manpower, and shortfalls in munitions and other equipment, as well as Putin’s failing economic and energy coercion, the Russians will be challenged to produce a new ‘theory of victory’.
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/…

23/ And if images of large numbers of retreating and captured Russian troops emerge in the coming days or weeks, it may be a strategic calamity for President Putin. His narratives about the greatness of Russia, and the effectiveness of its wonder weapons, will lay in ruins.

24/ Ukraine probably now has the initiative as well as tactical and operational momentum going into the winter. The war is far from over, but Ukrainian battlefield success will be a boost to Ukrainian morale, and highlights that the west needs to continue support to Ukraine. End.

25/ Thank you to those whose images I used in this thread: @DefenceU @IAPonomarenko @WarMonitor3 @UAWeapons @War_Mapper @Militarylandnet @markito0171 @ChuckPfarrer @thewarzonewire