Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE
This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V.
The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
You have been warned $AEE
$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
What is so interesting about $AEE's Swedish Battery Metals project is that the Credits are so large that in a #commodity boom these grow at a higher rate than inflation pushing down the all in sustaining cost per pound for #uranium or #vanadium whichever is the primary output.
It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.
If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%
Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%
Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%
Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.
Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.
What will $AHQ bottoming be 4Q 2022 as it concludes it's financing to optimize production?
Emotional response: negative short term outcome breeds further negativity....we generally look for these situations to act counter to the prevailing sentiment (provides great entry points).
Note at 50c prior to the announcement of the start up issues (slow economies of scale Vs fixed selling prices, insufficient capital to optimize equipment, supply chain bottlenecks) many thought this was going to perform. Now post the 85% discount many have the opposite view.
For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.
$AHQ 3x returns over 12 months from recent lows, 6x assuming lower stupid dilution. The key is to evaluation opportunities in the eye of the storm....4 potential mines with combined NPV of $2bn and 1bn/t of resource, low capex start ups.
Every time there is a new #uranium PFS or DFS come out we compare across the spectrum of projects looking for the best value at the lowest EV. Its still hard to beat 48mlbs recoverable, sub $30 AISC, 4-5mlb annual capacity trading on an EV < US$70m. Overpaying will reduce returns
ISR capex doesn't look so great when treated from a holistic approach