Insurance companies, esp. life insurance, seem to be the only institutions left that still give a damn about #COVID. Why? Because they can NOT afford not to. Everyone else can just pretend the pandemic is over & #SARS2 is a mild cold, but insurers can NOT! They know it's real.
Insurers will soon be the last remaining source of #COVID data, now that governments & health care public institutions are disgracefully abandoning their duties.
For the pandemic's ongoing toll, look at the latest Group Life #COVID19 Mortality Report. soa.org/programs/covid…
Here's the direct link for the August 2022 edition. soa.org/4a368a/globala…
And the impressive list of companies contributing data for this report. I don't think anyone can accuse these companies for faking #COVID deaths & the pandemic's excess deaths in general.
They understand the difficulties:
"The Committee recognizes that there are limitations in the ability to code deaths as #COVID19 related, within both the general population & Group Life exposures. Also, the survey seeks to analyze whether the pandemic has had indirect impacts...
on population mortality, beyond deaths associated directly with the virus. Thus, tracking just Group Life deaths coded with a cause of #COVID19 may not ACCURATELY MEASURE the TOTAL IMPACT of the pandemic. The Committee asked carriers to provide segmentation data WHEN FEASIBLE."
"Exposures & deaths during the 3-year period of 2017-19 were used to set BASELINE mortality expectations. The dataset encompasses all Group Life claims to participating carriers as of March 31, 2022."
"The fully complete 1Q 2022 EXCESS MORTALITY is expected to remain ABOVE 15%."
Mind you, 15% excess mortality for 1Q 2022 is ABOVE the WHOLE YEAR of 2020 (14.7%). How is that even possible if #Omicron is mild, and the vast majority of people had by then already built up immunity vs. #SARS2 (through vaccination and/or infection)?
"From an incurred mortality viewpoint, all 24 months 04/20>03/22 showed excess mortality versus baseline expectations. 12/20, 08/21 & 09/21 had very high incurred mortality spikes of 40% or more, whereas the other 21 m. ranged 5%-29% excess incurred mortality above baseline."
Also
"Table shows the total death claim incidence level (mortality rate) for each quarter during the pandemic relative to the baseline period metric. As the table illustrates, #COVID19 claims do NOT FULLY EXPLAIN the increase in reported claim incidence over the baseline period."
Imagine this:
"Approximately 13% of ALL reported Group Life claims with death dates in the pandemic period were determined to have a cause of death of #COVID19."
And yet the global majority of people still think #SARSCoV2 is nothing special, and the pandemic is over.
There's plenty more in the report for anyone interested, with data sorted by industries, geographic regions, age, sex, even the size of companies. Mind-boggling stuff, indeed. Ask yourself now, why are they STILL increasing the premiums & complicating life insurance in general.
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So, the OPPOSITE of what the "expert" virologist Jasnah (& friends) was telling me a year ago.
"Key characteristic of FATAL #COVID19 outcomes is that the immune response to the #SARSCoV2 spike protein is enriched for antibodies directed against epitopes SHARED with ENDEMIC...
beta-coronaviruses & has a lower proportion of antibodies targeting the more protective variable regions of the spike... suggesting an antibody profile in individuals with fatal outcomes consistent with an original antigenic sin type-response." insight.jci.org/articles/view/…
"Exposure to antigens shared between #SARSCov2 & related HCoVs may affect immunity & infection outcomes as a consequence of ‘original antigenic sin’ (OAS). For OAS to manifest, antigens need to be shared between primary & secondary exposures."
In a month, we got 2 studies from TWO highly respectable teams demonstrating MHC-I downregulation in cells infected with #SARSCoV2. While conclusions are the same, results differ in the exact #SARS2 mechanism of inhibition of the presentation of expressed antigen to CD8+ T-cells.
"...we found that ORF7a reduced cell surface MHC-I levels by approximately 5-FOLD. Nevertheless, in cells infected with #SARSCoV2, surface MHC-I levels were reduced even in the absence of ORF7a, suggesting additional mechanisms of MHC-I downregulation." biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
"#SARSCoV2 ORF7a physically associated with the MHC-I heavy chain and inhibited the presentation of expressed antigen to CD8+ T-cells."
Interestingly, not observed in SARS-COV-1:
"unlike #SARSCoV2, the ORF7a protein from SARS-CoV lacked MHC-I downregulating activity."
"Head-to-head comparisons of T cell, B cell & antibody responses to diverse vaccines...
We additionally compared their immune memory to natural infection for binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, spike-specific CD4+, CD8+ T cells & memory B cells." cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
Interesting summary of differences in humoral & cellular immune memory. But, this caught my attention; mostly disregarded as an inconvenience.
"mRNA vaccines and Ad26.COV2.S induced comparable CD8+ T cell frequencies, though ONLY DETECTABLE in 60-67% of subjects at 6 months."
E.g. his is considered waning.
"100% of mRNA-1273 recipients remained positive for spike IgG, RBD IgG & neutralizing antibodies at 6-months post-vaccination.
From peak to 6-months, GMTs of spike IgG decreased 6-fold, RBD IgG 9-fold & neutralizing antibodies decreased 7-fold."
The two of the best economic blogs I've been reading for years are written by brilliant, independent individuals: calculatedriskblog.com by Bill McBride @calculatedrisk, and bonddad.blogspot.com by the anonymous blogger called New Deal Democrat.
The recent post by NDD about #SARSCoV2 illustrates the prevalent reasoning that led to the current policy blind alley.
"A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations & an increasing percentage of the population already infected...
the virus would wane into a BACKGROUND NUISANCE BY NOW.
No more. I am now thoroughly convinced that there will be an UNENDING SERIES of VARIANTS that will create CONTINUING WAVES of new infections and, increasingly importantly, RE-infections."
Oh, how long we have waited. Finally, a step forward.
"Such repeated immune activation might be mediated by a SUPERANTIGEN motif within the #SARSCoV2 spike protein that bears resemblance to Staphylococcal enterotoxin B, TRIGGERING BROAD & NON-SPECIFIC T-CELL ACTIVATION."
"We hypothesise that the recently reported cases of severe acute hepatitis in children could be a consequence of adenovirus infection with intestinal trophism in children PREVIOUSLY INFECTED by #SARSCoV2 & carrying VIRAL RESERVOIRS...
In mice... This outcome was explained by adenovirus-induced type-1 immune skewing, which, upon subsequent Staphylococcal enterotoxin B administration, led to EXCESSIVE IFN-γ production and IFN-γ-MEDIATED APOPTOSIS of HEPATOCYTES...
Why aren't they escaping? Because they don't have to.
"Therefore, it is highly likely that the #SARSCoV2 ancestral strain was fully optimized to escape from CD8+ T cell-mediated immunity and was under no evolutionary pressure to further optimize its immune evasion strategy."
This is @VirusesImmunity study, not some @fitterhappierAJ speculation.
"We demonstrated that VOCs retain similar MHC-I downregulation capacity compared to the ancestral virus. VOCs exhibit a greater ability to suppress type I IFN than the ancestral virus. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Although VOCs possess unique mutations within the ORF8 gene, which suppresses MHC-I expression, none of these mutations enhanced the ability of ORF8 to suppress MHC-I expression. Notably, MHC-I upregulation was strongly inhibited after the ancestral #SARSCoV2 infection in vivo.