ISW Profile picture
Sep 16 6 tweets 7 min read
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, setting conditions to drive deeper into the #Russian rear in eastern #Kharkiv and western #Luhansk oblasts. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

A #Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces expelled Russian forces from #Sosnove on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and are fortifying positions at the settlement. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The source also reported that #Russian forces may have pulled out from #Studenok immediately west of #Sosnove to avoid encirclement. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing across the #Oskil River in northern #Kharkiv Oblast. A #Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces emplaced artillery in #Hryanykivka on the east bank of the Oskil River. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

A confirmed Ukrainian position in Hryanykivka would indicate that the #Russian frontline east of the #Oskil River is weak and/or that Russian forces in this area are farther east of the Oskil River than previously assessed. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults across the Eastern Axis and continued routine fire along the line of contact on September 15. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Sep 17
September 16 Assessment Highlight:

Russian President Vladimir #Putin appeared to threaten increased attacks on civilian infrastructure in #Ukraine if reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian military positions in Russian Federation territory continue. 1/
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
#Putin said that #Russia has been “rather restrained in our response” to Ukrainian “terrorist acts [and] attempts to damage our civilian [sic] infrastructure” in a question-and-answer session with reporters following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting on Sept. 16. 2/ Image
@TheStudyofWar assesses that #Putin’s comments are likely in part a response to criticism by Russian milbloggers, who attacked the #Kremlin for failing to protect the territory of #Russia and for failing to respond adequately. 3/
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 17
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces captured all of #Kupyansk City on September 16, continuing offensive operations east of the #Oskil River. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian forces established positions on the east bank of the #Oskil River in #Kupyansk. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces will likely struggle to hold positions in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast and in northern #Luhansk Oblast as Ukrainian forces establish more positions on the east bank of the #Oskil River. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
September 15 Assessment Highlight from @TheStudyofWar:

The #Kremlin has likely abandoned its efforts to shield select federal subjects from recruitment drives, which may increase social tensions. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
@TheStudyofWar has previously reported that the #Kremlin attempted to shield #Moscow City residents from reports of the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninsky Polk” volunteer regiment. 2/ isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Russian opposition outlet @the_ins_ru noted that several groups in the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tyva, and Yakytia (Republic of Sakha) are publicly opposed to the #Kremlin's emphasis on recruitment on an ethnic basis. 3/ isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
September 15 Assessment Highlight

Reporting from @RFERL indicates the #Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states, likely weakening Russian influence in those states. rferl.org/a/russia-troop…
The Russian military has already deployed some 1500 Russian personnel from Russia’s 201st Military Base in Dushanbe, #Tajikistan, to #Ukraine and plans to deploy 600 more personnel from facilities in Dushanbe and Bokhatar, a southern Tajik city, in the future, @RFERL reported. 2/
@RFERL additionally reported on September 13 that Russia has likely redeployed approximately 300 Tuvan troops from the Russian Kant Air Base in #Kyrgyzstan to fight in Ukraine at varying points since late 2021. 3/ rferl.org/a/russia-kyrgy…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 16
.@TheStudyofWar researcher @KatStepanenko joined @bbcworldservice to unpack #Russia's effort to recruit Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine led by #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin. Listen in around the 14-minute mark: bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1…
"This is not an isolated incident." #Prigozhin himself admits in the video that prisoners have been fighting alongside the #Wagner Group in #Ukraine since at least July 1, @KatStepanenko notes. Image
"This prison drive is unlikely to generate motivated fighters as [prisoners] are seeking liberty rather than continuing to fight #Putin's war to capture #Ukraine."

Read @TheStudyofWar's full assessment of #Prigozhin's shifting role here: isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast continues to degrade #Russian forces and threaten Russian artillery and air defenses. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian advances in the east have likely forced Russia to pull air defenses further away from the frontlines in order to protect those systems from artillery fire, potentially exposing frontline Russian troops to air attacks. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources continued to discuss limited Ukrainian ground attacks in eastern #Kharkiv, northern #Donetsk, and western #Luhansk Oblasts. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 5 tweets

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