SANEAlex Profile picture
Sep 19 102 tweets 40 min read
Well as my last attempt⤵️to #StopTheWar in #Ukraine failed to get any traction I thought my 2nd attempt should start with a bang or in the words of #DrStrangelove"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb"
2/n It seems I am not scary enough to scare sense into some participants of the current war, I thought trying to use a selection of #GNUTerryPratchett words from #Discworld #Jingo & #Hogfather along with some horrors of war concepts might persuade #WarCriminals in the conflict
3/n that a better path might be available to them and others if the war ended quickly but as another Author @Kurt_Vonnegut said of horrors in another War #SoItGoes🤷‍♂️
I started with the words
From the #WarGames film
4/n from the days when war games were regularly played IRL to try and work out what would happen if such & such triggering events happened, being an early #NETDataJunkie with megabit access in the days when most people had not heard of #DialUp what follows is a text reminder of
5/n those days Pshhhkkkkkkrrrr​kakingkakingkakingtsh​chchchchchchchcch​*ding*ding*ding*
In the early days of the NET I used to read stuff like the CIA World Factbook along with ancillary documents which used it as base data for Wargames thought experiments predicting oil & water
6/n wars before they became regular popular fact #SoItGoes.
Naive optimist I was then I thought the idea was to predict the bad stuff then try to prevent it happening rather than use it for profitable stock options in companies that would greatly profit from the bad stuff
7/n actually happening but #SoItGoes. Well I suspect we are currently at a point in history again where it is possible again to make fairly accurate predictions of a few likely bad futures, I would naively & probably over-optimistically like to think it might still be possible
8/n to choose one of the better futures so am sharing some of my thought experiment WarGame simulations with the hope it reduces their likelihood of fruition.

In that vain, If writing an airport pot-boiler thriller casting Putin as the villain he could be inspired by the
9/n “London Has Fallen” film plot and use a funeral where most of his enemies will be by having a small nuke in London during the #QueensFuneral to take out most the world leaders that are in opposition to him in one go trying to frighten the world to give up supporting #Ukraine
10/n of course as a reasonable chess strategist he would not “officially” claim responsibility nod nod wink wink maybe it would be something like a Syrian extremist group claiming responsibility with the radioactive isotopes identifiable as coming from one of those Nukes that
11/n #Ukraine gave up when they still expected Russia to honour peace agreements.

Or maybe Nuke #Ukraine whilst the #QueensFuneral is still on again to try and scare world leaders whilst they are in close proximity to each other to agree to give up on #Ukraine.
12/n Why would he think he might be able to get away with something this horrific without immediately causing all out WWIII well despite my low opinion of many politicians most of them are sufficiently bright not to go down the full MAD path if indeed it was a
“limited strike”
13/n after all he has so far gotten away with chemical & radioactive weapon assassinations in the UK why not go for the hat-trick?🤷‍♂️ but of course being the careful forward thinking strategist that he is he might wish to check if certain rumours well known in certain circles
14/n might have a basis in fact. Now if I were a suspicious bastard I might suspect that a certain nations nuclear secrets found in Mr 🍊's residence would contain details of things like the #KingDavidOption if it is indeed real & not an anti-Semitic #ConspiracyTheory or it may
15/n have been a rational response to the MAD nuclear options in the cold war era now if Mr 🍊 has sold Israel’s #NuclearSecrets to Mr P or 1 of his proxies Mr P could have useful info on where he should be if he risks playing the Nuclear card in a maybe limited way or a list of
16/n targets for an overkill 1st strike for some players trying to strike fear into the rest of the surviving players. Now many of the old interesting secrets I have been aware of over the years have worked their way into the public domain apparently surprise surprise
17/n #KingDavidOption does not have its own wiki page though the much toned down #SamsonOption does have a page, if you read between the lines it maybe possible to spot and infer a little bit of Dave's details nod nod wink wink😜 #SoItGoes
18/n Now of the Nuke the #QueensFuneral or Nuke‼️ #Ukraine possible future options, the later is the more likely in the #RealWorld & less of an airport novel as Putin has already done the sabre rattling in this area and it has a much wider time-frame of implementation. With no
19/n disrespect to the brave soldiers of #Ukraine It could be with the rapid planned strategic withdrawal of a lot of the Russian soldiers that Mr P has given the nod to his favourites that Nukes maybe soon on their way & the soldiers left are the ones he worries about the
20/n commitment & loyalty of so my advice to any Russians still in #Ukraine is to run for the boarders as fast as you can if you do actually trust your own government to treat you fairly or to one of the others and ask for a fair trial in the Hague where they can sort out the
21/n enthusiastic #WarCriminals from those who were merely following orders out of fear, either way I suspect you will be in a better more comfortable position than if you stay in #Ukraine as more & more #WarCrimes are revealed in detail I suspect the locals maybe understandably
22/n much more creative in response than I in my 1st thread on the WAR linked above.
So my naively optimistic view of having thought experiment wargames is that you should try and come up with solutions to prevent the bad stuff from happening or at least ways to reduce the likely
23/n damage both intentional & collateral.

1st we may need a bit more understanding before coming up with a solution.

Has Putin gone full on mad-dog or is there reasons & method in his madness that can be exploited to end the war by taking away tacit or other types of support
24/n that may help him to decide to end the war in a way where hundreds of millions possibly billions don’t die.

Now given the way Putin has played the political game up until this war even if you did not like him or his policies he would be viewed by many as a strong winner.
25/n The only way I can think of what he is doing in #Ukraine as being vaguely rational is that he is aware of how bad the #ClimateCrisis is already and that he may think it futile trying to stop it becoming #ClimateChaos and then #ClimateCollapse or just that if he helps the
26/n process along it could make Russia & its Allies the top superpowers amongst the few surviving nations if there are any by the end of the century. So why #Ukraine❓Well it already is the bread basket of the world as we have seen already by the wars disruption but as we almost
27/n inevitably now pass the 1.5 C warming triggering the tipping points that will send us towards 4C warming the #Ukraine breadbasket will become much more important as the predictive map below shows though even they maybe growing Tequila cacti in their southern regions.🌵🥃
28/n On said tipping points this⤵️ is the polite toned down “sick puppy” will be happy on the farm view of our current #ClimateChaos from all the data I have seen we are already well on the path to the bad stuff I think the saw-saw has accelerated

29/n beyond its safety margins and we are just yet to see the full damage but hey on the positive side there is a small possibility that I am wrong🤷‍♂️ #SoItGoes.

But hey I could just be a mad #ClimateCrisis #ConspiracyTheorist cherry🍒 picking my Putin plans data would any other
30/n top tier presumably rational world politician’s expressed thoughts and actions support my thesis? Well there is currently President Xi Jinping close friend or something of Mr P. In other #ConspiracyTheory circles it has been said that Mr 🍊 was Mr P’s Poodle maybe those
31/n #NuclearSecrets found in Florida were just used in an innocent game of fetch🤷‍♂️😜 if you keep up on some of the #Conspiracies floating around the NET one interesting one in this context is that Mr P is actually Mr Xi’s favourite pet poodle & that Mr P has sold him the rights
32/n to build a new #SilkRoad around the #ArcticCircle on the land that with become viable & useful once the #ClimateCrisis really kicks in. Now I am not saying this is certainly true you can of course do your own research though you might have to be quick😜as one of the possible
33/n solutions it may be helpful to give Mr Xi an opportunity to save face, after all stuff appears and disappears from the NET all the time or at least gets demoted so much by the algorithms that it becomes hard to find. I mean if Mr Xi were to want to dispel these libellous
34/n rumours or help an algorithm which ever it maybe, it might be that that having his representative voting in the UN to suspend Russia from the security council for six months or until the war ends whichever is sooner maybe a way to bring a better future for all. I know the 5
35/n members have traditionally been regarded as permanent, but when horrific possibilities occur it could well be time to change president temporally rather than let it happen to all permanently. For instance when League of Nations failed with WWII it left a space for the UN to
36/n be created remember in that we were all allies trying to make a better future for all❓ Neither the League of Nations or the UN have a perfect record but both have done some good even if the 1st ultimately failed. So it might be better to see the UN evolve to try and prevent
37/n a WWIII limited or not than have it fail in the manner of the League of Nations to be replaced if there are enough of us left, with I know not what but likely with different main players. After all a temporary ban does not set precedence for a permanent ban which should be
38/n reassuring all the other 4 members. Now an offer to only save a bit of face & maybe or maybe not prevent WWIII may not be sufficient inducement to give up on an ally who may have inadvertently lead you down a bad path or even just be a pet gone rabid. So being the kind of
39/n person who keeps an eye on various #ConspiracyTheories I may add some more carrot like ideas into the area of public discussion to try and reduce tensions in the Mr Xi part of the world whilst we try to find a way out for Mr P without involving WWIII unless of course he has
40/n gone full-on steroid junkie mad-dog then we just try and limit the number of bites. Now despite the various techo-optimists who know that there are plenty of technical solutions to the #ClimateCrisis even though a lot of horrific deaths are already baked in. I am pessimistic
41/n on the ability of the different political entity's and nations of the world to cooperate to solve the problems before the current ongoing 6th major extinction event concludes including us. I really would love to be proved wrong on this, either because I am reading the
42/n currently available peer reviewed scientific data in the wrong way or our technologies do evolve to a level where major geoengineering projects can solve the problem & get both political & financial backing but I digress where was I, oh Mr Xi that other #ConspiracyTheory
43/n that may have leaked passed the #GreatFireWall or could just be a delusion of some youtubers in the west you never know with #DeepFakes these days but if by some chance there is a great mortgage/property problem on your side of the wall. The reform the UN option may put some
44/n western nations in a more favourable mood to help stabilise your nations financial situation. I don’t have the power to offer this but I can suggest in the public domain that say to help our shared goals as well as not engaging in WWIII we could cooperate on the even bigger
45/n problem of the ongoing #ClimateCrisis by not having high tariffs on Green technologies being sold by your country things like solar PV and EV cars which are I gather from some sources of a good quality & rapidly improving with some made in your country already showing the
46/n world a great example. I don’t think this should stop others from encouraging home grown technologies in their own countries but maybe it would good for the whole world if environmentally sound products had low tariffs at the boarders of all nations for the common good just
47/n a suggestion if this thread gets a sufficient public airing. One last take or leave it carrot Mr Xi you may or may not have seen the offer I once made to your nation via our local Embassy I can understand that there may have been reasons for me never getting a reply for the
48/n registered letter I sent with details but the short version was I offered a method to remove Mr 🍊 in the days when he was causing worldwide problems with Global trade for which I asked $88,888,888,888 to be invested in a shared space company that would also if successful
49/n benefit both our nations and the rest of the world providing all went well.Sounds crazy I know but I did have a plan which maybe in your archives somewhere & the funny thing is the bit that was the peaceful removal of Mr🍊would have almost certainly worked and as the tariffs
50/n imposed on your country since by the US administration have likely well exceeded ½ a $Trillion it could well be considered my offer was well worth it on that along even without the lions share of a space company that could if all went well be paying $Trillion dividends if
51/n I as per my goal we made space based solar power stations able to deliver enough cheap clean energy to solve the #ClimateCrisis but hey I can understand if the thinking was I was a mad #ConspiacyTheorist after all my nickname of SANE may have been applied ironically. But
52/n having said that I am still sufficiently confident in my ideas to make a similar lower offer which is £88,888,888,888 for only 46% of the now to be newly created company Carpe Astra Nova with 8% of shares to be allocated to the UN for use helping those out suffering due to
53/n the #ClimateCrisis this may or may not help you out with the pecking order of the UN providing it does continue to exist past the current difficulties.

Now back to Mr Putin lets test his sanity and give options both to him and his country which he professes to love & honour
54/n mad-dog or not? Lets see. Referring back to the film Dr Strangelove one the ideas expressed was that if you go down the MAD route and actually build a functional doomsday device you should tell the opposite side as soon as you have built it as this should dissuade future
55/n aggression and as long as you yourself are not aggressive and for as long both sides are lead by rational leaders the paradoxical peace of MAD works and peace continues. Unfortunately where MAD can breakdown is if a country does not have enough checks & balances to prevent
56/n the appointment of a mad leader or restrain one who becomes mad then as the Chinese curse goes we get to live in interesting times which maybe our current shared situation.

Well as Mr P has been not so subtly been rattling his nuclear sabres here my suggestion to find out
57/n mad or not? and either way try to limit the damage. He brought it up 1st so I suggest that as he sees NATO as a threat even though it was set up as a mutual defence force rather than a mutual attack force. As per what would have given Dr Strangelove a happy ending if things
58/n were thought through give an unambitious explicit threat of what will happen to him and his country should he be mad enough to use nuclear weapons in #Ukraine or elsewhere directly or via proxy.

The threat from an agreed NATO meeting should be this if Putin does launch a
59/n nuke then the response from NATO should be an overkill number of nukes for a small area no more than a 1984 esq 101 hundred miles diameter to the best guess coordinates of Putins location with the assurance to the rest of Russia's surviving leadership that the response will
60/n remain limited to that area unless other nukes are then launched from Russia. I do hope that having had proof that their leader had gone mad dog that as shown before in history that a Russian who carefully looked at the data of if it was an all out strike or if it was more
61/n likely a glitch or in this case a justifiable limited response that there are other Russians still of that calibre repeating history again by not upgrading to a full on WWIII nuclear war. As extra encouragement I will also share a vid from @thuderf00t
62/n that could well indicate 50% or maybe even more of Russia's nukes might plausibly currently be duds the case seems well made to me but then I may well be a mad #ConspiracyTheorist 😜 decide for yourselves after looking at the data. So not only could not leaving things at
63/n limited strike level be a moral failure it could also be an unexpected loss of WWIII whereas most theoreticians have expected WWII to end in a 0-0 draw as in not enough left on either side to rebuild civilisation in their own image after. If there has been enough corruption
64/n in the kleptocracy that Russia has become that the money that should have been spent on maintaining the nukes functionality was spent on all those super yachts currently being sanctions impounded all around the world then its possible the west although not doubt deeply hurt
65/n by any still functional nukes might still be in position to rebuild and thus have an unexpected technical win you know like a win after a failed drugs test😜 So if the western hemispheres governments by some chance have more details on the state of Russia's nukes and finer
66/n details on the totally unsubstantiated rumours of Mr Xi #ClimateCrisis conspiracy with Putin using Chinese slave labour to help redevelop a newly blooming Siberia into farmland once the no longer permafrost stops its methane explosions that is assuming that there is not an
67/n acceptable loss rate of slaves given by that point of the #ClimateCrisis the considered value of a human life may have suffered from major deflation Mr Xi might also be the target of a limited strike, of course the likelihood western governments looking into the dark corners
68/n of the NET to verify or not any grain of true if what could quite probably be some twisted kind of dystopian fan fiction rather than an actual conspiracy may greatly be reduced especially if Mr Xi was seen to be acting as a good global citizen in ways good for all including
69/n the long term prospects of his people but what do I know I am more interested in rewriting a variant of the rocket equation to take into account Archimedes displacement principle than sticking my nose in politics my ambition is to become a gentleman scientist rather than
70/n immersive myself in political cesspools especially as I am occasionally cursed by a nagging conscience. But I digress again in this stream of consciousness thread where was I hmm yep swimming in the cesspool if Mr Putin is still rational we don’t want him to go down like a
71/n frighted cornered rat unfortunately for the good of the rest of the world giving him an out may be the better option for the majority despite many wanting some form of justice for the crimes his has commissioned & committed. Well if you believe some of the #Conspiracies many
72/n as I know have more than a single grain of truth in them Mr Putin is secretly the worlds richest man I don’t know if this is true but he has been in power in the worlds largest mostly functional kleptocracy for a long time so no doubt he has salted a while a considerable sum
73/n of assets but the trouble in such a world is giving up power in such a way that you get to live long enough benefit from all that hard work. Here is a suggestion put in the public domain for all to consider if it is true that Russia is currently a kleptocracy with Mr Putin
74/n as the boss lets give him an Angel for context see 1st thread how about the people of Russia give Mr a Putin a pardon for all crimes committed providing he sets up the chance for new free elections in Russia internationally monitored of course and gives back 92% of any major
75/n assets both domestic and foreign to the Russian government coffers and then goes into exile in any country who will take him maybe Syria or as Mr Xi likes feeding him Ice cream🍨😜 a Chinese Island might be a nice safe home for him family &retinue that no doubt that could be
76/n supported generously on the 8% left think of it as very cleaned laundry it takes a lot of detergent to get out that much blood but leaders of bad regimes have before lived in exile for considerable periods as the price of preventing further horrific bloodshed, politics is a
77/n cesspool of the kind of compromises that I don’t wish to swim in but having had the thought experiments on how far up shit creek the world currently is I thought I’d share my ideas on how to make a better snorkel even if it has a bitter taste. Well It is entirely possible
78/n that I am severely misjudging Mr Putin and that he is a poorly paid President with no other significant assets who genuinely believes that the nazification of Ukraine was going on in the event that this is truly your belief may I suggest as another alternative to
79/n accidentality instantiating WWIII challenge Mr Zelenskyy to simultaneously go to the Hague with you for a trial and let you both bring all the evidence available on what has been going on in #Ukraine and see which if any or both has evidence of Warcrimes amongst their
80/n responsibilities as leaders of your respective countries even if you are somehow unjustly convicted of #Warcrimes after bringing strong evidence in support of your case I mean you would not start a WAR for a specific named reason unless you had really strong evidence would
81/n you? And not for instance as a way to distract from problems back home well here in the land of reasonably functional democracies with separate judicial systems the Hague being very separate appeals for unjust convictions can go on for years just saying not good for you but
82/n better for you and your people than if everyone gets a high radiation dose. So if you are not a kleptocrat and really and truly believe in what you have shared with the world this is another option which involve less future deaths than the current path we are all on.
83/n Well that is my last best try to end the #Ukraine war no longer as early as my last try but I am just some mildly aphasic guy ranting on the NET hoping in some way to reduce future harm to people I will never know along with those I do as the world is I think in a very
84/n precarious place. This as with my last try may contain spelling mistakes grammar errors etc, to me its about the ideas feel free to take any and improve upon them as always I am #WhiteRabbiting getting stuff finished in time. My case is that the #Ukraine war is just an
85/n opening battle in the upcoming many #ClimateCrisis wars if we choose to fight over dwindling resources rather start cooperating to solve the problems but hey #SoItGoes.

Now I am not saying the above could or will happen as I would not like to test my #CassandraComplex
86/n that has functioned so well on the #ClimateCrisis but I would like to think putting the idea our in the open beforehand would reduce the likelihood of it happening as I suspect Mr Putin& Allies will be scanning #SocialMedia for any leaks that could track things back to them.
87/n On the #ClimateCrisis There is a difference between the prediction of chaotic weather & a chaotic climate the former can be improved with better data & computers the later is already a baked in certainty for the next 2 or3 decades if not longer from what we have already done
88/n to the planet. Though you might not understand this to be a true fact if you believe the candidates #queuing for a #DarwinAward populating #Tags like #ClimateScam who may or may not be profiteering in the short term in exchange for a not having a longer term future, though
89/n if amongst the unpaid at least you may get to #Queue jump. 😜

The normal “natural” storms are already getting worse in their effects this year alone in March it was simultaneously 30C warmer than usual at both poles of the planet we had unprecedented 40C heat in the UK,
90/n Pakistan has had millions flooded out, and currently both the Hurricane & Typhoon seasons are causing people to shelter in their millions

It could be said that the War in Ukraine is just a minor symptom of a much bigger problem that is the #ClimateCrisis now currently
91/n turning into #ClimateChaos slowly heading it seems inevitably into #ClimateCollapse

The way things are going the #ClimateCollapse is likely be much worse than a Nuclear War even a full on one but especially one that might not have a full complement of functional Nukes.
92/n As the changes humanity has already made to the atmosphere in the last 150 years have added the energy to the sea of equivalent to about 1.5 Hiroshima-size atomic bombs per second and we are now at a rate of 3-6 bombs per second. So my question is should we all join together
93/n and cooperate on trying to fix what we have already done to nature⤵️ which has already dumped the energy of more nukes than humanity has ever had into the seas of the world before the seas run out of capacity to smooth out the problem.…
94/n You never know with luck @ElonMusk could be right & we are just in a simulation & nothing matters FWIW my suspicion is that it is a disaster simulation but finally back to a #WarGames quote⤵️

“is this a game or is it real?”

95/n My answer to this❓ is we the currently living can learn from thought experiment games the already dead & their soon to be comrades lose that ability #SoItGoes

Although I mention the possibility of a disruption to the #QueensFuneral I sincerely wish that it is not disrupted
96/n in anyway with the mourners having peace to morn in as I said above by sharing beforehand I would hope to reduce further the likelihood of any low probability bad occurrences.

There is an argument that the Kings of old had a fool so that he would be in a position to tell
97/n the King unpalatable truths without much fear of retribution King Lear’s being an example.This fool for one & seemingly like the Republican Australian Prime minister would like the King to continue to support ways to solve the #ClimateCrisis as this should not be a political
98/n no go area it really is about humanity having a future or not, even if fossil fuel lobbyists would rather their “lobbied”politicians kept profits rolling in in the short term. A good constitutional monarch will indeed, care about the world his grandchildren grow up in whilst
99/n some politicians do really do only think in 4 to 8 year time periods the #ClimateCrisis is currently on the path for unmentionable horrors for everybody's grandchildren even if it is currently politically inconvenient in some circles #SoItGoes.
100/n PS The truly last #LordofTheRings type ending of this rant ;-) To anyone considering RTing this worried about my motivations. I have no book to sell, sound cloud to promote, it has just been done in the hope of reducing the number unnecessary bad deaths in this world the
101/n only way I could conceivable profit is in the very unlikely event that President Xi Jinping uses £8Billion of his countries money or so to set up a shared space company which would have the goal to make access to space cheap clean and widely available , And to be frank I am
102/n no longer sure I want that responsibility or still have enough time to complete the task but given the opportunity I would try to do my best to give humanity the chance to share all of #Space rather than take part in a #ClimateCrisis #ExctinctionEvent on:-

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More from @SANEAlex_

Mar 11
1/n It seems that these are trying times in #Ukraine at the moment, for those in that country with a slightly dark sense of humour this #Discworld reading list may be morale building & also informative in your current situation
2/n #GNUTerryPratchett also has a range of books more suitable to the younger reader & may also be a good distraction if you can get hold of them in your current situation see full reading list below.
3/n The real point of this thread is to get some ideas to @DefenceU & people of #Ukraine on how to #StopTheWar by persuading the Russians currently in #Ukraine to cease their actions & go home, by the very careless use of words to paint a vivid picture of some of their possible
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