Thread by @TheStudyofWar

.@TheStudyofWar agrees with @KofmanMichael that #Russia's partial mobilization is unlikely to change battlefield dynamics rapidly and that #Ukraine retains “an important window of opportunity” in the coming months. /1

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573116060291076?s=20&t=eGCX0_n-2k3BFOj9VJKP2A

We also agree that #Russia has some limited capacity to induct and train large numbers of reservists; hence the rolling mobilization announced by Russian Minister of Defense Sergei #Shoigu, which we’ll explore in a separate thread. /2

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573105033457672?s=20&t=eGCX0_n-2k3BFOj9VJKP2A

We further concur with @KofmanMichael that the 300k number Shoigu put out is “likely to be notional” and that the final result will likely “be a lot less than what Moscow might expect." /3

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573102089048070?s=20&t=eGCX0_n-2k3BFOj9VJKP2A

#Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization thus is important and could set conditions for #Russia to maintain its current effort, but it will not reverse the trend of Russian setbacks in the coming months. /4

.@TheStudyofWar will expound on these recent developments and other topics this afternoon in a series of subsequent threads. 5/