In March I understood that the invasion might lead to the end of #Russia'n Federation. Since that I haven't seen signs suggesting this scenario wouldn't be possible. But is the West prepared for the possible dissolution of the federation and its consequences? #Venäjä (1/x) 🧵
- If the Kremlin understands the collapse might be a possibility, they might find themselves in #China's pocket. That's not good for the West and this also might lead to lifting the sanctions > the rule of tyranny in Russia continues. (2/x)
- There's no empire that would've given up its expansive and colonial ideas willingly. In Europe the former empires chose the path of the EU. So, it's not given that former colonial powers choose the bad path for the future. (3/x)
But if #Putin-collective stays in power, it's not likely they choose the more humane path. Note: over half of the authorities in the federation have the FSB-education. (4/x)
- Please bear in mind that the dissolution of the USSR was one of the the starting points of the war in #Ukraine, but not in the way Putin suggests. (5/x)
It was the starting point of the Russia's war against Ukraine, because the West didn't push Russia for lustration, coming to terms with the past and the crimes committed. The impunity was the fuel for Russia's imperialism. (6/x)
- The end of #Putin does not mean the end of Russia's imperial thinking. But, if that imperial thinking is squeezed into North Korea - type of land space, at least they don't have the power to invade other countries (7/x)
> the rest of the former Russian federation can find other scenarios for their future. Note: this does not mean they turn into democracies over night. (8/x)
- Wishful thinking of the West should be put aside. The best thing we can do is to take care of our own security and defence. In this I totally agree with @KristiRaik (9/x) End of 🧵 #Ukraina #mobilisation
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