Dave Keating Profile picture
Sep 25 5 tweets 3 min read
Polls have just closed in the #ItalianElection, here is the exit poll just published. Image
If these exit polls are correct, the far-right has a solid basis to form a governing coalition in #Italy.

Brothers of Italy has performed on the low end of what polls were predicting but are still the clear winners of today's #ItalianElection.
Here's the full breakdown of the #ItalianElection exit poll by party:

RIGHT (total 43.5%)
FdI (Meloni): 25%
Lega (Salvini): 11.5%
FI (Berlusconi): 7%

LEFT (total 26%)
PD: 20%
SI/Greens: 3.5%
+Eur: 2.5%

POPULIST
5MS: 15.5%

CENTRE
Azione/Italia Viva: 7%
This result clears the way for #Italy to have its first far-right leader since Benito #Mussolini.

However, all kinds of things could still happen - maybe the exit polls are off, maybe #Meloni will be unable to agree a nationalist coalition with #Salvini.
Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.

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More from @DaveKeating

Sep 28
🇪🇺President @vonderleyen now announcing an 8th package of #RussiaSanctions

"Last week #Russia has escalated the war in #Ukraine to a new level. The sham referenda organized in the territories that 🇷🇺 occupied, are an illegal attempt to grab land and change intl borders by force" Image
"We do not accept the sham referenda," says 🇪🇺President @vonderleyen, "or any type of annexation in Ukraine."

"And we are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation."
The new #RussiaSanctions include:

🙅‍♂️1300 more people & entities on targeted list
🚚"Sweeping" ban on Russian imports worth €7bn
💾More key technologies banned from export to Russia
🕴️Ban on EU nationals on Russian company boards
🛢️Price cap on Russian oil for 3rd countries
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28
Latest on the suspected Russian attack on Baltic Sea gas pipelines:

There is now a consensus that the 🇩🇰PM's assessment is correct, this was deliberate sabotage. The question is, how can 🇪🇺 respond to a Russian attack in EU waters?
The first response is that European countries are this morning rushing to protect their energy infrastructure from Russian attack.

There is particular fear about floating LNG terminals, the lifelines to get non-Russian gas this winter.
The second response is that EU navies will have to be activated to protect maritime assets from Russian attacks.

The energy cold war just turned into an energy hot war, as Politico notes.
politico.eu/article/baltic…
Read 10 tweets
Sep 27
As usual, the @EUCouncil is where good 🇪🇺 legislation goes to die.

At Friday's Energy Council, national governments are planning to water down the Commission's emergency energy measures proposed earlier this month. euractiv.com/section/politi…
Amendments drafted by the Czechs, who hold the rotating Council presidency, would allow countries to set higher caps on surplus revenue from energy companies than what is set at EU level for the #WindfallTax.

Energy analysts are warning this will create distortion in the market.
"Allowing countries to deviate from it and have lower caps creates confusion and uncertainty – and will slow down the investments we so badly need,” says @WindEurope's Giles Dickson.

Commission also warned: “uncoordinated caps...may lead to significant distortions".
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26
🇪🇺 reaction to yesterday's 🇮🇹 election, which has paved the way for #Italy's first far-right leader since Mussolini:

We are likely to see something similar to 2018 when the populist 5 Stars won - an initial effort to appeal to #Meloni's pro-EU instincts and not to isolate her.
What happened in #Italy yesterday isn't an isolated case.

Across Europe, far-right parties that trace their roots to Fascist movements of the early 20th century are rebranding with a softer face and scoring big electoral wins, as the #Sweden Democrats did 2 weeks ago.
The reaction in Europe: the center has been mostly quiet with no one wanting to criticise #Meloni directly. But some elected leaders have issued general warnings.

"Populism always ends in catastrophe," says #Spain's centre-left foreign minister.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 25
One hour until polls close in the 🇮🇹#ItalianElection. Here's what to expect

11pm: Exit poll published
Monday morning: Official results published
??: Italian President Mattarella will decide who has the best chance of forming a governing coalition, invite him/her to become PM.
So in one hour we'll get an idea from the exit polls whether this was a blow-out for the far right and Meloni is sure to be invited to form a government, or whether it's more close and it make take some time for President Mattarella to decide who to invite.
If the vote is very close with no obvious coalition, the 🇮🇹president becomes very powerful. He then has leeway to propose his own ideas for government formation.

The president also technically has the power to choose ministers, though usually he does so based on PM instructions.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 23
Really staggering 🇬🇧mini-budget just announced here in London. Ain’t nothing mini about it.

Record-setting borrowing *and* tax cuts. £100 billion price tag. No-tax & spend. Trickle down economics on steroids. Throws fiscal sustainability out the window.

A huge political gamble
The £45 billion in tax cuts just announced, mostly given to the wealthy & businesses, is biggest tax cut since 1972, when Chancellor Barber had his "dash for growth". It's 2% of GDP.

That ended in disaster. It's generally regarded as the most damaging UK budget in modern history
The #Truss & #Kwarteng trickle-down economics policy changes include:

🧐Highest income tax rate (45% for ⬆️150K) abolished
🍾Scrapping cap on bankers bonuses
🏨Scrapping planned increase in corporation tax
🏘️Cutting stamp duty
Read 12 tweets

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