🧵1/n
#RussianNuclear option. My thoughts.
Inspired by @nashaniva article. Thank you.
🇺🇦source quotes @Forbes (F) on 🇷🇺 options with tactical #nuclear strike.
I disagree.
nashaniva.com/ru/300225
#RussianNuclear option. My thoughts.
Inspired by @nashaniva article. Thank you.
🇺🇦source quotes @Forbes (F) on 🇷🇺 options with tactical #nuclear strike.
I disagree.
nashaniva.com/ru/300225
2/n
(F) says #Putin most likely to hit a military formation or logistics center. I disagree, because it would mean a ground level strike followed by a significant contamination. Putin knows the strategic consequences. Hence a high altitude nuclear explosion is much more likely.
(F) says #Putin most likely to hit a military formation or logistics center. I disagree, because it would mean a ground level strike followed by a significant contamination. Putin knows the strategic consequences. Hence a high altitude nuclear explosion is much more likely.
3/n
RVSN will not be used because this is the global reach weapon threatening NATO/USA, not 🇺🇦. And would trigger a US/NATO critical defcon level.
I wanted to say that (F) claim of the most powerful tactical nuclear yield in Russia is incorrect (100 kt mentioned), but I can’t.
RVSN will not be used because this is the global reach weapon threatening NATO/USA, not 🇺🇦. And would trigger a US/NATO critical defcon level.
I wanted to say that (F) claim of the most powerful tactical nuclear yield in Russia is incorrect (100 kt mentioned), but I can’t.
4/n
Reportedly Kalibr missile can carry a warhead with 50-200 kt. But in reality none expert can verify that. Trusting 🇷🇺 sources with this sensitive piece of info is not a proper approach. (F) expert says Putin is unlikely to order the first nuclear strike on a major city in 🇺🇦.
Reportedly Kalibr missile can carry a warhead with 50-200 kt. But in reality none expert can verify that. Trusting 🇷🇺 sources with this sensitive piece of info is not a proper approach. (F) expert says Putin is unlikely to order the first nuclear strike on a major city in 🇺🇦.
5/n
And this is what I can agree with.
But (F) pointing to Snake Island as a target is irresponsible. Furthermore it is too close to #Romania (NATO).
(F) is correct when says the more Russia is pushed away from Ukraine, the more cornered and hazardous would become Putin.
And this is what I can agree with.
But (F) pointing to Snake Island as a target is irresponsible. Furthermore it is too close to #Romania (NATO).
(F) is correct when says the more Russia is pushed away from Ukraine, the more cornered and hazardous would become Putin.
6/n
But not a word from (F) on the command chain. But it should be a part of the assessment. Like this:
Q1: who will carry out the strike? Navy? Army? Air Force? Most likely Air Force. Army delivery routes and ground transit security is a no-go and rather too risky.
But not a word from (F) on the command chain. But it should be a part of the assessment. Like this:
Q1: who will carry out the strike? Navy? Army? Air Force? Most likely Air Force. Army delivery routes and ground transit security is a no-go and rather too risky.
7/n
See the 🇷🇺 Air Force Commanding General profile & experience. And if anyone says Navy, see the Black Sea Fleet capabilities & Navy commander profile/experience.
Q2: when? The moment when Crimea is to fall. Not earlier.
See the 🇷🇺 Air Force Commanding General profile & experience. And if anyone says Navy, see the Black Sea Fleet capabilities & Navy commander profile/experience.
Q2: when? The moment when Crimea is to fall. Not earlier.
8/n
Q3: what target? The most difficult question. I don’t have a crystal ball. I am not Gandalf. But I know, the decision will be made personally by Putin, nobody else.
Q3: what target? The most difficult question. I don’t have a crystal ball. I am not Gandalf. But I know, the decision will be made personally by Putin, nobody else.
9/n
Q4: will the order be executed? 50/50. Why so? Pilots have brains. But may be ideologically blind, thus 50/50. What is a bad forecast for Putin. He can’t be sure the order will be executed.
Sweet dreams, readers.
Q4: will the order be executed? 50/50. Why so? Pilots have brains. But may be ideologically blind, thus 50/50. What is a bad forecast for Putin. He can’t be sure the order will be executed.
Sweet dreams, readers.
10/10
cc @STRATPOINTS_EU @TheStudyofWar @DefenceHQ @DefenceU @GrangerE04117 @McFaul @JuliaDavisNews @TheShipYard2 @MarkHertling @WarintheFuture @DefenceFinland @RALee85 @RoINTEL @pmakela1 @nolanwpeterson @mikercarpenter @ARVershbow @general_ben
cc @STRATPOINTS_EU @TheStudyofWar @DefenceHQ @DefenceU @GrangerE04117 @McFaul @JuliaDavisNews @TheShipYard2 @MarkHertling @WarintheFuture @DefenceFinland @RALee85 @RoINTEL @pmakela1 @nolanwpeterson @mikercarpenter @ARVershbow @general_ben
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