Share this page!

ISW Profile picture
Twitter logo
Oct 1 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Putin announced the illegal #Russian annexation of four #Ukrainian territories without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories or making even basic administrative decisions on boundaries and governance.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to specify the borders of the newly annexed territories in a September 30 conversation with reporters: "[the] Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DNR and LNR] were recognized by Russia within the borders of 2014...
...As for the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, I need to clarify this. We will clarify everything today," Peskov said. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ DNR head Denis Pushilin added that even the federal district into which the annexed territories will be incorporated remains unclear: “What will it be called, what are the borders—let's wait for the final decisions, consultations are now being held on how to do it right"
4/ Russian officials may clarify those boundaries and administrative allocations in the coming days but face an inherent problem...
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
...Ukrainian forces still control large swathes of Donetsk and Zaporizhia and some areas of Luhansk and Kherson oblasts, a military reality that is unlikely to change in the coming months. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
5/ Putin likely rushed the annexation of these territories before making even basic administrative decisions on boundaries and governance. Russian officials have therefore not set clear policies or conditions for proper administration. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
6/ Organizing governance for these four forcibly annexed oblasts would be bureaucratically challenging for any state after Russian forces systematically killed, arrested, or drove out the Ukrainian officials who previously ran the regional administrations. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
7/ But the bureaucratic incompetence demonstrated by Moscow's attempted partial mobilization suggests that Russian bureaucrats will struggle to establish governance structures over a resistant and unwilling population in the warzone that is Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with ISW

ISW Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in #Ukraine. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1 Image
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The practice of prematurely assigning cadets to reserve regiments will likely further degrade already-poor command structures. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Underprepared cadets will be forced into leadership roles with insufficient training and little or no professional experience. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman on October 1. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1 Image
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in #Drobysheve, just northwest of #Lyman, withdrew to #Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources discussed Ukrainian attacks north of #Lyman around #Torske, #Terny, and #Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
🧵Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
2/ Chechen leader Ramzan #Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in #Lyman, called on #Russia to continue to fight to "liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
3/ #Kadyrov’s call to use tactical nuclear weapons is likely incompatible with his own and other Russian statements and actions showing continued commitment to seizing more Ukrainian territory. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on #Russia and liberated #Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1.

Read our latest campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1 ImageImageImageImage
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from #Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to avoid the “threat of encirclement” in the settlement. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Social media footage and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered #Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 30
New assessment: #Putin renewed his attempt to compel #Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire by again threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. He is likely aiming to scare the West into pressuring Ukraine into a ceasefire, which he will use to rearm.🧵isw.pub/PutinNuclearTh…
@TheStudyofWar cannot predict if or when #Putin will use a nuclear weapon. His latest threats are not fundamentally new nor indicate imminent preparation for their use. The crossing of Putin’s stated red lines in #Ukraine has thus far not triggered threatened nuclear use. 2/
#Putin is most likely to employ a nuclear weapon if he believes it will not draw direct Western conventional military intervention and if he believes it can have decisive effects within #Ukraine. 3/ isw.pub/PutinNuclearTh…
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 29
Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that newly-mobilized Russian men arrived to reinforce elements of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army in unspecified areas of Ukraine with no training at all. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ Social media footage from September 27 shows a Russian soldier mobilized into the 1st Tank Regiment explaining that he will be sent to fight in #Kherson Oblast within two days without any basic training, as @TheStudyofWar reported yesterday.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

Email the whole thread instead of just a link!

Separate emails with commas

:(