1/4 My take on #Putin's "referenda" speech: a) I disagree with quite a lot of Western commentary. Here's why: b) It's not an aggrieved rant (Shaun Walker's reliably superficial and mediocre "taxi driver" interpretation). Instead it's a deliberate piece of rhetoric. Its core:...
2/4 ... Persuade his audience in #Russia that this is now a war about "the Russian way of life" (as Putin wants them to see it of course) and that it is inescapable. c) With an eye to non-Russian and non-Western audiences, a calculated attempt to position Russia as spearhead...
3/4... of an anti-Western rebellion/challenge. d) We may oc pick at the factual errors, hyperbole, and inconsistencies. But it's a mistake to dismiss this as a "cornered rant." The key question about a speech like that concerns its effect/efficiency. That remains to be seen....
4/4 ... e) Finally, I entirely disagree with qualifying this speech as evidence of individual insanity/psychosis etc. Because: Marked by what we can describe as #Putin's obsessions (or concerns?), it is, as argued above, clearly marked by rational, purposeful calculation.
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1/X Thread w a few thoughts re the recent string of explosions in #Crimea. If you're interested 2 rules: a) READ THE WHOLE THING before you scream, b) Do NOT language-police (for instance, I KNOW #Russia is responsible for the whole invasion, but #Ukraine is still specifically...
2/X ... responsible for these explosions/attacks taking place now in #Crimea. Good? So here goes:
A) In legal terms, #Ukraine has every right to reconquer #Crimea. (No, the so-called "referendum" of 2014 makes no difference.)
B) Legal terms are only part of reality (ask the...
3/X ... #Palestinians, for instance. (No, recognizing that is NOT "cynicism," "blaming the victim" etc. - No bullshit here, please.)
C) Responsible politics MUST deal with all of reality.
D) #Russia sees (wrongly, but still) #Crimea as Russian.
E) #Ukraine has promised not...
1/4 This is a special one for those pretending re #RussianUkrainianWar that analysis and attention to human tragedy are zero-sum (me on 9 December LAST year): "A second cost that would affect both Ukraine and its neighbors would come with immense human tragedy: A large-scale...🧵
2/4... war would not only cost lives but also uproot large numbers of Ukrainian civilians. In fact, the country’s minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, has recently warned of 3-5 million refugees in case of major war. He may, of course, be trying to scare the West, ...
3/4... especially the European Union, to shore up support for Kiev. But he still has a realistic point as well.
The same is true for his observation that both Russia and Ukraine are among the major global wheat exporters, with Russia the top exporter and Ukraine in fifth ...
1/6 Since we are still doing the prediction/prophecy stakes re #RussianUkrainianWar, here's me (NO military expert) on 9 December 2021 (and yes, on dread RT, then): "In a large-scale land war between Russia and Ukraine without direct, military Western intervention on Kiev’s...🧵
2/6 ... side, three things are likely to happen. The fighting would occur on Ukraine’s territory. In view of its superiority in men, arms, and capabilities, Russia would win. Yet, finally, it would pay a high price: at least parts of the Ukrainian military are much...
3/6 ... better prepared than in 2014, and they have experience and more robust morale now. Moreover, US President Joe Biden has promised to continue arming Ukraine and go “above and beyond” what it has already received.
In sum, it would be unrealistic to expect anything...
1/4 A thread on the real #ThucydidesTraps (there is more than one). No, it's not the banality that rising and established powers can clash, actually.
Instead: 1) Read T actually and you see that he treats both his own side and the enemy with critical empathy, not sympathy...
2/4 ...but critical empathy. Specifically, his Athenians can be cruel and idiotic, his Spartans rational and driven by understandable motives. If you need caricatures instead, T would have scoffed at you. Trap I. 2) His Pelop. War is a giant clusterf***, an enormous...
3/4 ...waste, a descent into barbarity and slaughter on all sides. If you need a simpler, more edifying picture, again T would have considered you at best infantile. Trap II .3) His Pelop. War is also a story of self-humiliation: Here are the same Greeks who defeated the...
1/x Finally got to read this from @nytimes. Shot through with seriously bad flaws: @27khv
a) If you mention the spoilt Russian 1996 elections, you really have to also mention that the #USA helped sabotage them (no, that's not optional; you know why)... nytimes.com/2021/01/07/wor…
2/x .... b) It's, actually, misleading to describe #Putin's position as "joining the revanchists." In fact, he has *mostly* NOT done that. If he had, the world would look different and worse. What he has done is, at times but by no means always or w/o reason or warnings...
3/x ...c) violently re-asserted #Russia's geopolitical interests. That's different; yes, really.
d) The comparison with the genuine local uprisings-cum-Russian-interventions (yes, they are BOTH) in eastern #Ukraine is deeply flawed. Why? Because...
2/X ... Note Serhiy Kvit. Not a suprise at all but telling. Kvit is clearly linked to strictly nationalist (no, not the nice, illusionary "Applebaum" way...) groups. Pls read up if you don't believe that's possible. Then there's Iosif Zisels. Don't jump...
3/X ... to the ethnicized conclusion his presence is likely meant to make you jump to (Snyder-2015 style: if there's a Jew (pref. ex-IDF) with Maidan, Maidan can't have a real far-right problem). Contact @edolinsky instead and, again, read up, please...