1/X Re that #NYTimes semi-whitewash (grey-wash?) for fascist symbols all over Ukraine's military, my old, old warnings (15 Feb 2022); and yes, for the squeamish "I-save-myself-for-CNN" types among you, published on DREAD RT... 2/X ... The pattern should be clear by now - a far-right [here: Azov] unit that has successfully nestled inside Ukraine’s military is having spectacular PR success in the West. And it was easy. Because, it seems, almost nobody cares. It is, ...

1/X As promised, today (trumpets blare), I am reposting my primer on the West, Russia, and (yes!) broken promises as a thread (it's long but (some of) you made me do it). For the very bashful among you, let me warn you: this was initially published on DREAD RT. 2/X ...With Russia challenging Western unilateralism in a way not seen since the end of the Soviet Union, two major issues keep coming to the fore. Both, it seems, are centered on America's flagship military bloc, NATO.
First, there is Moscow’s claim that there was a Western...

1) Re that new story (oh so suddenly) about, in essence, #Ukraine blowing up #Nordstream (spare me the bullshit mental gymnastics about a "pro-Ukrainian group"):
A) Nice we now all admit it wasn't #Russia. Those who believed that nonsense: maybe it's time for a principal... 2) ... rethink about whom you believe and why? B) Personally, I am v skeptical about the story in that it may well be Western disinformation (yes, that exists, galore) to distract us from the real perpetrator, the #USA. C) But let's assume it was really Ukraine for a moment...

I Re #negotiations to end the #Russia-#Ukraine war now:
1) Those who are against them or for delay need to prove their case, because they argue for many more dead as well as a continuing, unmitigated escalation risk. 2) Put differently, in a sane world, negotiations are the... II ... default. 3) That negotiations will be very difficult is no argument against them. Fighting is even harder and more destructive and more risky. Fighting is NOT a sane default. 4) Negotiations do NOT imply capitulation; they do imply the search for MUTUAL concessions. ...

1/X a) The (current, large-scale) war between #Russia and #Ukraine has been predictable and predicted, for decades, actually; b) So, it is unlikely to be due to only one man; c) This war's potential for going global has also been clear; d) So: More than one state has been... 2/X ... willing to (at least) risk, perhaps even welcome some form of WW3. e) The war is, equally, clearly, therefore of all-humanity interest and everyone, literally, sharing this planet has a right to have a voice about it and how to end it, including with a compromise....

1/X So, some (unsystematic) remarks on #Putin's #Valdai speech: 1) Yes, he turned most of it into a rebel yell ag. the declining West, its arrogance, and attempts to maintain power. Much of that was instrumental yet based, actually, on fact. Don't like it? Complain to the... 2/X ... West for giving #Putin so much reality to work with. 2) Yes, he clearly tried to appeal to "another West" (and also another Europe) where he believes #Russia's position of multipolarity and cultural conservatism can find sympathy. So what? We, the West, see nothing...

1/x Thread: What COULD (!) a settlement in #Ukraine look like:
(Avant-propos: I'm all for argument but if you're here to nitpick or scream, get lost. Yes, the below would require bending rules. WTF does NOT? No, Ukraine cannot have everything it has a legal right to, duh)... 2/x ... a) Territory: Ukraine gets back: all of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russia gets/keeps: all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea. b) International frame: Ukraine gets #EU membership (not tomorrow but today); Ukraine does NOT/NEVER get #NATO membership; Ukraine...

@MarkRuffalo No, you are misinformed: Russia has escalated in February of this year by a war of aggression. Correct. But: The conflict does go back to 2014 and does have 2 (no, not 1) main sources: a) a domestic rebellion in #Ukraine's "far east" (and a brutal, inept Kyiv government ... @MarkRuffalo ... that has been systematically obscured in the West) AND b) Russia's intervention (wrong then, wrong now). This means you cannot simply take Russia out of the picture and everything will be fine. Moreover, even Russia, with all its misdeeds, has one real concern. And that is...

1/4 My take on #Putin's "referenda" speech: a) I disagree with quite a lot of Western commentary. Here's why: b) It's not an aggrieved rant (Shaun Walker's reliably superficial and mediocre "taxi driver" interpretation). Instead it's a deliberate piece of rhetoric. Its core:... 2/4 ... Persuade his audience in #Russia that this is now a war about "the Russian way of life" (as Putin wants them to see it of course) and that it is inescapable. c) With an eye to non-Russian and non-Western audiences, a calculated attempt to position Russia as spearhead...

1/X Thread w a few thoughts re the recent string of explosions in #Crimea. If you're interested 2 rules: a) READ THE WHOLE THING before you scream, b) Do NOT language-police (for instance, I KNOW #Russia is responsible for the whole invasion, but #Ukraine is still specifically... 2/X ... responsible for these explosions/attacks taking place now in #Crimea. Good? So here goes:
A) In legal terms, #Ukraine has every right to reconquer #Crimea. (No, the so-called "referendum" of 2014 makes no difference.)
B) Legal terms are only part of reality (ask the...

1/4 This is a special one for those pretending re #RussianUkrainianWar that analysis and attention to human tragedy are zero-sum (me on 9 December LAST year): "A second cost that would affect both Ukraine and its neighbors would come with immense human tragedy: A large-scale...🧵 2/4... war would not only cost lives but also uproot large numbers of Ukrainian civilians. In fact, the country’s minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, has recently warned of 3-5 million refugees in case of major war. He may, of course, be trying to scare the West, ...

1/6 Since we are still doing the prediction/prophecy stakes re #RussianUkrainianWar, here's me (NO military expert) on 9 December 2021 (and yes, on dread RT, then): "In a large-scale land war between Russia and Ukraine without direct, military Western intervention on Kiev’s...🧵 2/6 ... side, three things are likely to happen. The fighting would occur on Ukraine’s territory. In view of its superiority in men, arms, and capabilities, Russia would win. Yet, finally, it would pay a high price: at least parts of the Ukrainian military are much...

1/4 A thread on the real #ThucydidesTraps (there is more than one). No, it's not the banality that rising and established powers can clash, actually.
Instead: 1) Read T actually and you see that he treats both his own side and the enemy with critical empathy, not sympathy... 2/4 ...but critical empathy. Specifically, his Athenians can be cruel and idiotic, his Spartans rational and driven by understandable motives. If you need caricatures instead, T would have scoffed at you. Trap I. 2) His Pelop. War is a giant clusterf***, an enormous...

1/x Finally got to read this from @nytimes. Shot through with seriously bad flaws: @27khv
a) If you mention the spoilt Russian 1996 elections, you really have to also mention that the #USA helped sabotage them (no, that's not optional; you know why)...
nytimes.com/2021/01/07/wor… 2/x .... b) It's, actually, misleading to describe #Putin's position as "joining the revanchists." In fact, he has *mostly* NOT done that. If he had, the world would look different and worse. What he has done is, at times but by no means always or w/o reason or warnings...

1/X) So this is #StopFake's, the v problematic infowar outfit from #Ukraine criticized for doing double duty as far-right support network, "board of supervisors." Note: it's new, since April 2020. @mossrobeson__ @Surajpr74800081 @27khv @MDRBrown @BenjaminBidder @yashalevine 2/X ... Note Serhiy Kvit. Not a suprise at all but telling. Kvit is clearly linked to strictly nationalist (no, not the nice, illusionary "Applebaum" way...) groups. Pls read up if you don't believe that's possible. Then there's Iosif Zisels. Don't jump...