As the #commodity stock wreckage mounts up, some gems to focus in on:
A) Negative EV, net cash exceeds cap and the resource is for free
B) 90-95% decliners with no material change in value, just massive expectations de-rating
C) Cap<8% of project NPV (focus > 70% IRRs)
The typical #Commodity or #goldstock graph that tends to interest us if backed up with fundamentals, we would expect 1H 2023 this could bottom at 2c down 50% from current levels (-95%+ from cycle peak), offering 20x returns over the following 48 months.
For fundamentals we would like to see 4-7c of potential annual cashflow 3 years out to back our 20x return.
This is how to create wealth, deployment of capital near a cycle bottom can grow by 10-20x over the following 48 months.
Get in step and alignment with the upcoming cycle bottom - this is the best guidance we can give any investor
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
If you want to get your up and down #uranium cycle legs correct, this is probably more important than anyone else currently....as it dictates the market cycle.
What #uranium specialists lack knowledge on, that generalists are focused on.....
In most #commodity markets supply is stimulated materially over 9-18 months at 65% plus cash margins.
For #uranium we see this to be no different, using sub $35/lb cash costs for compelling projects, over $100/Ib will stimulate a massive wave of fundable projects within 24m.