1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 3, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to make junction to aim #Svatove . Ru did not prepared enough. #UkraineMap
2/ so basically this time, it seems that Ru MOD was strong enough to explain to Putin that #Borova would live the same fate as #Lyman then Russians get out of Borova today & Ukranians are in the city now.
they are all moving to the next line of defense near #Svatove area
3/ up north close to the border i have no info to make a solid assessment of the FEBA. so i guess Russia would want to try to keep under control the famous P-66 to control all the axis to #Svatove , but on the other hand, Ukr are gaining control of all H-26 to the south, to join
4/ the other part of Ukr forces coming from #Borova now.
it's hard to say if they really want to try to keep Svatove - Kreminna axis as a "living axis" or if they just want to try to keep it as a "front line" to protect the real important one : #Troitske#Starobilsk#Luhansk
5/ if you need a reminder of "zone defense" i explained in different tweet couple weeks ago..
(i can't find the major one i did back then though)
but ... some infos ...like here :
7/ Situation is also evolving in the south in Kherson, but i will try to resume later or tomorrow. can't follow everything right now...
Good evening you all!
9/ Russian sources say that #Rubijne - #Svatove axis highway in #Luhansk is partly under Ukrainian control in some points and also here below : that #UAarmy ZSU are storming #Krasnorichenske.
10/ so actually i have to update my previous map as the entire area limits as we know it has also changed in the #Borova area.
this is right now what the FEBA line could look like & understanding it will move even further tonight.
Ru as explained several time, r now experiencing
11/ a total meltdown...1929 Krash like. They are at the point of "cascading" effects (like for the titanic), when nothing can reverse the trend unless massive natural defense line (or frontier) help them stop the UA progress.
12/ et d'ailleurs mon court échange à ce sujet avec Cedric il y a une heure de ça...
13/ wow.... if true quite "big news"
Russian would have been ordered to move out from #Svatove as the situation is absolutely not defendable right now, so they will move away (but we don't know th final limit of the trip)
14/ i had ready a super Topo Map to explain how #Svatove was going to be a "butchery" for Russians..
-insert sad kid image-
so here... just for the map lovers... in less than 48-72h it will not be of any use...
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 4, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is regrouping & preparing to go to #Svatove . Ru regrouped & defend slightly better for now. #UkraineMap
2/ According to recent intel on Russian Tg exchanges/Tchat in the area we can have a global idea of the situation right now in this :
(but they are delusional if they believe help will come soon enough)
3/ the big news tonight is that #Snihurivka (#Kherson Oblast) would be now under Ukrainian control according to Romanov (he is usually reliable even if some mistakes can occur some times to times, apparently he picked up directly from local ru troops)
Also the push will continue
1/ Operational situation update / #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 2, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace around #Lyman. Lots of reports/evidence that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to take good chunk of #kreminna . Ru did not prepared #UkraineMap
2/ Situation around #Kreminna is getting critical for the Russians. According to this Russian report, the #Svatove - #Kreminna highway is under threat.
one week ago they just thought they would stay in Lyman, not ready to defend Kreminna at all now, also they lack preparations,
3/ materials, men (dead injured) and if the city falls, this could potentially create a direct threat of encirclement of #Lysyschansk .
they know that & they are freaking out!
thanks to @wartranslated for translation here.
1/ Operational situation update / #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 1st, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace around #Lyman. Lots of reports/evidence that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to circled Ru in #Lyman as they have ordered to stay #UkraineMap
1/ Official :
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated 5 settlements near Lyman in the Donetsk Region and around 5k Ru soldiers (but we still don't know exactly who moved out and in so it could be less) are almost trapped in the area of #Lyman
Several scenarii could unfold now
2/ Ukr can "provoke" reaction from Russians and wait until they have no more ammo to fight back as no one can send them more.
they can also (they already do that) pick appart & interdict any attempts of breaking in/out, (to help the trapped troops or to escape).
they can also
3/ wait for the night to come to produce their max effort, (just teasing defense and exhausting Ru troops during the day) during the night, using their superior night vision / materials / skills.. doing so a couple of days before just waiting for Ru morale to definitely crumble.
1/ Operational situation update / #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on September 29, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace around #Lyman. Lots of reports/evidence that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to circled Ru in #Lyman as they have ordered to stay #UkraineMap
2/ recap of some key points of this particular day :
2/ Ru Tg "officials" report that the situation south west of #Kreminna is not fully controlled, and also that #Zarichne is still not under direct attack.
Also reports that the road between #Torske & Kreminna & several positions & convoy are being heavily shelled now.