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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Oct 5

OPEC+ quota cut was clever leadership by HRH MBA.

Among others, it removes 0.8-1.0mbpd of PRODUCTION, bringing KSA back to a sustainable profile while it may not reduce OPEC EXPORTS as KSA/UAE/K consume less crude themselves in winter. Yet, it should keep the shorts in check.

@kittysquiddy

@kittysquiddy @AndurandPierre @UrbanKaoboy @econ_713 @kingofcrude @anasalhajji @AzizSapphire @staunovo @Amena__Bakr @ARaj_Energy

@Reuters

I subscribe to everything HRH said. Media with brand names like @Reuters either hire the right journalists or do not deserve answers. Energy security is not a boulevard topic. Media outlets must understand their responsibilities in this too (underinvestment; climate hysteria).

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1577685721401462788

Read 4 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Oct 1

September was an interesting month to understand the challenges of Germany's so called "Energiewende".

At first, it may not look unusual. Germany was able to export 2,076 GWh of electricity for the month and covered peak loads most of the times.

1/n #Electricity

Isolating its wind & solar generation (RES) for the month of Sept however reveals future challenges.

GER had 9 days in Sept with little #wind. Not just Germany, all of Europe. On avg, GER used 2.7GW of its 62GW wind cap.

That is a capacity factor of 4.5%. Ouch!

2/n

While Sept turned GER into an importer for 2d (from CZE, SWE & DK) to cover consumption (FRA couldn't help; coal maxed out), RES also required it to export excesses during 15d.

Its Energiewende already turned GER into an imp/export "junky" as d-s are tough to match.

3/

Read 13 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Sep 8

Let's talk electricity.

Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages from what I call a crisis of confidence.

I will explain why, back it with data & kindly ask YOU to share it as the fix lies in voting for balanced policies. We must adapt, urgently!

1/n
#Electricity

@WifeyAlpha

For those of you short of time, attached a brief summary of the issue at hand.

I was asked to compare the 1970ies energy crisis with today's for a Turkish newspaper. My answer below.

For those of you with time, please read on.

2/n #Greenflation #Stagflation @WifeyAlpha

The European electricity grid is a modern miracle. It is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world. It interconnects 520 million end-customers in 32 countries, including non-European Union members such as Morocco or Turkey.

3/n

Read 73 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Sep 5

Let us look at the state of the European gas market.

We have worked hard to collect real time data where possible and are convinced to have a worldclass database by now.

What did we find out?

Thread 1/n
#TTF #LNG

Big picture first:

- Consumption: -12.2% yoy;
- RUS pipe imports: -48% yoy (inc. RUS LNG imports -42%);
- Local Production: +0.6% (Groningen could increase EU production by 10% alone within weeks);
- LNG imports: +70%.
- Net storage build: 45bcm!

2/n #Netherlands

Storage:

- ITA, FRA, GER, POL or CZE have done a great job saving gas to fill salt cavities et al "whatever it takes style".
- UK cannot b/c it lacks storage;
- EE struggles to access more flows;
- EU covers 51 of 180 winter days (<2 months).

So it needs flows!

3/n

Read 17 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Aug 6

The European electricity crisis is deepens as it proves hard to save gas.

1) 🇫🇷 had to reduce nuclear output further due to high river temp (u can cool the reactor, but cannot let water back into the river to protect wildlife).

Result: Nuclear output (in MWh) collapses.

1/n

As I explained in the past days, 🇫🇷 has Europe's 2nd largest grid and was an exporter for as long as we can measure it. Not anymore.

In the context of the 🇩🇪 grid struggling too due to gas shortages, the list of issues gets longer by the week!

2/n

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1555598998068666368?s=20&t=O-Wyj9IAmcEDL3pXXXESEQ

2) Meanwhile, Switzerland also has to reduce nuclear output due to high river temperatures.

Not a big issue because it will normalise once the heat wave ends in Sept. But it means that🇨🇭is unable to export electricity to 🇫🇷.

3/n

Read 9 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Aug 3

Let's talk European electricity, shall we?

Thread
Part I (of many more to come); 1/n

European electricity prices are spiking for all major economies except for Spain. But also Spanish consumers pay 3x more compared with only May 2021.

2/n

In fact, most European power prices are 12-15x higher than they were in 2015. Needless to say, the European industry will go into a deep recession at these prices.

3/n

Read 30 tweets

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