1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 4, 2022
The situation seems to have "stall" for now in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is regrouping & preparing for next round of actions even if there is still ongoing ops right now #UkraineMap
2/ Nota bene.
important. almost all maps out there show north part of Luhansk close to Russian borders under Ukr control and i don't believe it is true. hence my map for several days. because on one hand we haven't seen ANY evidence of free villages, and Ukr does not claim so &
3/ on the other hand there is this "constant" area as described in the circle by Ru MOD as under Ru control, and even if they are never 100% accurate as i've showed several times in the past (like in the arrow area i highlight here), all evidence points anyway to put in under Ru.
4/ nothing much to say & no real changes from #Bilohorivka - #Lysychansk to #Soledar as Ukr are still defending & are doing as much as they can to simply destroy all incoming forces.
but there is nothing to say 2 weeks after some famous claims toward #Lysychansk. bad infos.
5/ now on the south #Bakhmut situation..
we are still witnessing different scenarii depending on specific areas. terrain matters.
Ru recognize contrary to first claims yesterday that they are stuck in the outskirt of Bakhmut. on the other hand it seems that they finally got
6/ Vesla Dolyna, and continued their movement in the direction of "Ivangrad" #ivanhrad
in Bakhmut, detachments of "PMC Wagner" managed to expand the control zone along the highway and enter the territory of the industrial zone on Patrisa Lumumba street, (pics) &Asphalt plant
7/ they also claimed that "Wagner's PMC" captured the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the crossroads south of Otradovka and continued to move towards Kurdyumovka. Otradovka itself also completely came under the control of the Wagnerits"
but i still wait confirmation
8/ & UKr Gen staff confirms : "Over the past day, units of #UAarmy repelled enemy attacks in the areas of #Soledar, #Bakhmutske, Yakovlivka,
.. #Odradivka (but 24h delay!) #Zaitseve, Bakhmut, #Krasnohorivka, Pobyeda, Vodyane & Lyubomirivka settlements."
hence my investigations..
9/ nothing much in #Zaporijia#Zaporizhzhia Oblast..
only Ru using all missiles they can use to destroy civilians infrastructures and killing civilians because they are absolute retarded AND have zero real intel AND shitty materials that falls down quite often 100m from target
10/ Now important note. concerning the #Kherson#KrivyiRih axis - notice that on my last map i put #Snihourivka#Снігурівка Oblast de Mykolaïv as liberated but i think i was wronged by circular infos who augmented the reality on a "simple" info on the ground. I picked up the info
11/ from @wartranslated account (good account though) & seemed confirmed. but it was based on Ru complaining as usual like drunkhards does about hard attacks and officers & command leaving the place (like they always do) but there is no info whatsoever of any liberation now.
12/ also we do receive some vids from this morning of villages liberated like liberated village of #Tryfonivka in Kherson region. it does not change really the FEBA line and or the fact that this is "old".
but all russians sources also claimed that the front seems to be more or
13/ less "stabilized" for now... but not much more.
so it's kind of hard to assess there.
so i'll let the map as it is, as it should be pretty close to what are really the contact areas in this zone.
14/ and the last map.
is gonna be a recap of Kherson area to #Mykolaiv
Gen staff confirms and reports some villages there that were directly targeted and says its directly close to front line.
so this should be the situation there too.
15/ and last gen staff report
16/ also last report from Gen staff media center :
17/
18/ Today, October 06, between 09.00 and 11.30, on the flight from the sea to Mykolaiv region, forces and means of air defense of the Air Command "South" eliminated two enemy drones-Kamikadze "Shahed-136" and one strike drone "Mohajer-6"
19/ also the Daily rate of attrition / material destruction remains absolutely mind boggling
& it will be more & more difficult for Ru to sustain their ongoing operation or to try any major advances in the future. 1k men/km won't change that much if no armor remains to protect/
20/ or inflict damages and help to progress.
men in trenches can produce hard / mobile defenses, but if we take "conservative" numbers there, Ru are still losing the equivalent of a BTG every couple of day right now...
impossible to hide or to replace. even with bad materials
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1/ breaking !! Si l'on reprend la carte que j'ai faite il y a 2 jours (j'ai l'impression que ça fait 1 semaine), voici donc quel serait apparemment le nouveau "deal" (plus ou moins approximatif sur la profondeur du corridor) que Putin voudrait imposer à l'Ukraine :
Alors ds les
2/ faits cela voudrait dire cession complète et "signée en tant que telle par traité!" de l'ensemble de l'Oblast de Donestk contre à peu près l'equivalent en terme de territoire des Oblasts de Kherson et Zaporijia, MAIS en laissant libre accès à la Crimée, pour les Ru du Donbas,
3/ par le biais d'un corridor (là je ne sais pas la largeur, mais en cherchant sur les tg Ru d'officiers que je suis) il semblerait qu'il faudrait qu'ils aient une profondeur stratégique suffisante en cas d'attaque des UKR dnc ils demanderait un retrait de qq 10aines de km
About Trump's Move :
1/12 Trump just blasted India for buying Russian oil and "not caring abt Ukraine deaths," announcing major tariffs. But his selective outrage and convenient timing reveal this isn't about Ukraine at all. Here's what's really happening.
2/ This morning, China essentially told Trump to pound sand (GFY) regarding his threats. Yet Trump focuses his rage on India - a democracy and strategic partner - while giving China a pass. If this was really about Ukraine, why not target the bigger Russian oil buyer first?
3/ Perfect Timing for US Corporations. These tariffs come just as companies like Apple and others were eyeing India as their new manufacturing haven - cheap, qualified labor to replace China. Convenient how tariffs now create "pressure" for better terms for US corporate re-entry
on this Assange release event...
(political choice before big next election)
let me put this link back here to show you that Ru were also already there for "long shots" way back then...
Network/ppl level/influencers/media/politics/"hacktivists" etc etc
3/ also a must read for people who will say next "ho! i didn't know about that..
and keep in mind Mueller investigation cannot give you half of the extent of the reality as they never had access to all the CIA sources... washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
2/ #TaurusLeak reveals the complete breach of all secured protocol / incompetence of German officers in the #Luftwaffe - German gov is really mad about it right now. Also all intel services are all hands on deck right now.
3/ so allegedly "being wiretapped, conspiratorial telephone conference by the Bundeswehr leadership, they plan to trick the federal government regarding the 🇩🇪 cruise missile in order to bring about delivery. Goal? Among other things, the attack on the Crimean Bridge" (sic)
voilà voilà... j'en ai encore parlé hier soir
(j'ai juste supprimer le post hier soir parce que j'avais trop de messages, mais il semble maintenant que tout le monde va être au courant)
Par contre bcp de choses sont encore à régler. ce n'est pas facile surtout en ce moment.. 1/
2/ Paris et Kiev finalisent les préparatifs de la visite du président @EmmanuelMacron en #Ukraine, en se concentrant sur un accord pour que la France fournisse des avions de combat multirôles #Mirage 2000D. Le ministre ukrainien de la Défense, Rustem #Umerov, est attendu
@EmmanuelMacron 3/ cette semaine à Paris pour finaliser les accords avec le ministre français de la Défense @SebLecornu . Le plan initial prévoyait le transfert de six avions, mais ce nombre est désormais porté à 12. La France recherche également des missiles et des solutions de formation, avec
1/ #Gaza map update #IDF despite really hard battle involving dismounting troops/Spec forces at night r allegedly breaking through to Gaza City center, but as we can't confirm it, we can still produce this map that is made on only verified locations (blue limits for IDF)
#Israel
2/ from yesterday evening. i also had direct infos that the area between the north south axis, west to the defensive walls (stripe areas) are indeed totally under complete surveillance. What i was just not able to figure out is if there is a junction with troops coming from Beit
3/ hanoun or not. Also infos from journalist i've translate seems to confirms all the geoloc that were assessed to make this map.
Actually what an israeli journalist said on the ground is that all the main axis are AT least under direct control up to 500m to be able to interdict