Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️Scoop—MOTHER OF GOD—Just got this leak from CDC-insider source—it seems #COVID variants worse than CDC has been admitting. The new highly evasive #BQ1 & #BQ11 sub variants are surging over 11%—but CDC has not shared it yet! Here is what will be posted soon (left) 🆚 current. 🧵

2) I cannot describe just how mad I am at this disaster. #BQ1 and #BQ11 are two of the most evasive variants known to date. And CDC seems to have been holding onto this data? Can it be true? Why did this data have to leak to me from insider sources? It’s so bad.

3) So, HOW BAD IS IT??? People don’t get what I mean by among the “most evasive” — the #BQ1 (Typhon) and #BQ11 (Cerberus) are basically dubbed “escape variants” because they escape from immunity!! 👀

Nickname by @TRyanGregory
Graph by @RajlabN
public.tableau.com/app/profile/ra…

4) CDC data are only updated 1x/week. since we have a barely functioning CDC, we need to thank all the diligent variant trackers:

@CorneliusRoemer @RajlabN @Asinickle1 @TWenseleers @jbloom_lab @JPWeiland @SolidEvidence @LongDesertTrain @DGBassani @yunlong_cao & @TRyanGregory

5) We scientists have been predicting the explosion of #BQ1 and #BQ11 for weeks now— we have seen the explosion in sequencing data. Look at that exponential surge. This is why I think #BQ* family of sub variants will be likely deadly in coming months.

cov-spectrum.org/explore/United…

6) Million dollar question — so does the bivalent #Ba5 booster shot work against #Q1 and #BQ11? I *think* so… BQ are subtypes of the BA5 branch family. And in neutralization studies of BA5 infection (akin to ~BA5 booster) by @yunlong_cao, BQ sub variants still neutralized well.

7) But #BQ1 & #BQ11 are totally resistant to major MONOCLONAL ANTIBODY DRUGS— they effectively “escapes Evusheld and Bebtelovimab” says @yunlong_cao in his study. Basically MAB drugs are useless now against these two new BQ variants.

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

8) So where does this sudden BQ1 and BQ11 mess put us? Our models predict a variety of 5+ key mutation sub variants will cause a surge of #covid by mid to late November just in time for Thanksgiving, especially if we don’t BA5 bivalent boost. Again, BQ* are subtypes of BA5.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1579919061353631745

9) MISSING FROM PRIOR WEEKLY REPORTS—someone asked me why the leaker and I are upset… it’s not just CDC posting once a week—the #BQ1 & #BQ11 should have been reported to be surging in prior weekly reports, but they weren’t! CDC has a rule to report any variant over 1%—epic fail.

10) CDC website for NOWCAST has been updated… this is now… exactly what I posted last night. BQ1 and BQ11 now listed in the variant list for the FIRST TIME ever despite having been over 1% for 2-3 weeks.