A thread 🧵 #Putin's press conference was surprising and eventful. To briefly summarise what was said:
📌 #Russia can and will escalate further (tear up the grain deal, launch new massive strikes on #Ukraine's infrastructure if necessary) if Ukraine attacks (in any sense).
📌 The first phase of #mobilisation ends in a fortnight. There is no need for new recruitment, but (!!!) if the Ministry of Defence says we should, then we would. A very routine, cold-blooded attitude.
📌(to the West) Well, choke on your Nord Stream Pipelines. #Nordstream1 #NordStream2
📌Fining Russians for listening to Ukrainian songs is bad, but if you really want to, you can. It's an emotion (an overreaction by law enforcement).
📌Ukraine should return to the Istanbul concessions it supposedly could have made in April. But Putin needs this not to make peace, but (1) to exacerbate divisions within the West over whether (and if so, what) Kyiv should concede to Moscow, and …
… (2) to play along with the imaginary "peace party" in the Ukrainian elite that Putin still hopes for.
📌 And lastly, and probably most importantly, Russia's tactical task today is not to force the Ukrainian army out of "Russian territory" (annexed regions), but to stabilise the "line of contact".
That is, let the Ukrainians be there, but that they do not move. The Kremlin does not expect the Russian army to oust them (yet).
Putin's very cheerful mood is noteworthy, especially when he smirks about a possible resumption of massive bombing raids. It is to question whether he feels desperate and cornered. So you have to separate reality from subjective perception.
Objectively, the situation is bad, but Putin does not feel that way.
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