Thread by @BrettSprague8

I'm primarily interested in the Strategic Communication battle between @ZelenskyyUa and #Putin in the #UkraineRussiaWar . My sources for understanding the current battle include @MarkHertling @WarintheFuture @general_ben @EliotACohen @TheStudyofWar @TimothyDSnyder Thread. 🧵/1/

My last thread covered the Strategic Communication (StratCom) battle for Ukraine starting pre-Feb 24th up until 3rd Sept. As I explained in that thread, #Ukraine began with very conservative strategic messaging and had grown bolder with success. twitter.com/intent/retweet… /2/

This thread will identify in my assessment an opportunity for @ZelenskyyUa to grow bolder again, in his StratCom battle with #Putin. Providing assistance in this assessment is @JuliaDavisNews @TimothyDSnyder @RealCynicalFox but first a situation update since the 3rd September./3/

Since Sept 3rd, Ukraine has driven Russia out of nearly all of #Kharkiv Oblast and they're threatening Russia's hold on #Luhansk. From a StratCom battle POV Eastern Ukraine is where it became conceivable that Ukraine could successfully go on the offensive, turning the tide./4/

However, Ukraine was also successfully conducting shaping operations in #Kherson Oblast. It found significant weakness to the north where it has been able to successfully drive the Russians south past #Dudchany. This confirmed from a StratCom perspective that Ukraine could /5/

advance on more than one axis and has destroyed the optimistic Russian propaganda that had been overwhelming since February. @JuliaDavisNews is the best source of the main channels of Russian State propaganda that I've found. The best indicator the tide has turned in the war /6/

is in the StratCom battle and @JuliaDavisNews nails it here

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582794925304729601

Ukraine's StratCom shaping the #Kherson Oblast has driven Russian propaganda to begin preparing the Russian population for the loss of Kherson. In fact, Ukraine is so successfully on the /7/

offensive in the StratCom battle that Russian propaganda coming from Russian (SOM) operational commander #Surovikin cablefreetv.org/the-first-inte… /8/

states clearly Russia is not expecting much success for the remainder of 2022. Russia hopes to limp into #Spring2023 where there is some hope that #Putin's partial-mobilisation will allow Russia to reverse the tide to their favour. However, this is where @ZelenskyyUa has an /9/

opportunity to escalate the #Ukrainian StratCom messaging. #Putin has been threatening nuclear use due to his desparate situation and people like @RadioFreeTom and @MarkHertling provide considered thoughts in these times. They'll likely have a much stronger assessment /10/

of where #Putin's nuclear red-lines are, but I suspect they're aren't within pre-2014 Ukrainian boundaries but more to defend the approaches to #Moscow. And @ZelenskyyUa would have the best assesment of this, which isn't foolproof but nothing ever is. Therefore, #Putin's /11/

nuclear threats have been treated as a bluff and #Ukraine hasn't blinked at these nihilistic StratCom threats. The StratCom escalation opportunity arises in my opinion in being able to turn #Putin's threat against himself. In this assessment @ZelenskyyUa calls the global /12/

media @CNN @BBCWorld @politicsabc @dwnews @AlJazeera and issues his own counter-threat to #Putin. "Mr. Putin if you use nuclear weapons on even one inch of Ukrainian land as we assess it, the #UkrainianArmy will no longer stop at the Russian borders. If you use a nuclear /13/

weapon on Ukrainian soil, I will order the #UkrainianArmy to march on #Moscow and I will direct then to terminate your criminal regime. So, Mr. Putin, if you want any chance of keeping your present job as President of #Russia, I suggest strongly you quit your cowardly /14/

threats to threaten the world with nuclear war. Capiche!"
Ukrainians from @ZelenskyyUa down have accepted death by choosing to fight on Feb 24th, it is time for the rest of the world to muster the courage to face down #Putin. End Thread /15/
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