Thread by @Anastasiya1451A

#Feygin discussed russian invasion of #Ukraine, russian nuclear blackmail and much more with ex-commander of US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges. (featuring #Arestovych).
#RussianUkrainianWar #Russians #USA

https://twitter.com/FeyginMark4/status/1584966984319787009

#Arestovych is returning from the frontline and will join the stream soon.
1/

#Feygin, Question 1: what is the response in the West to the russian allegation of Ukraine planning to use a "dirty bomb"? Is it blackmail or provocation?
#Hodges: No one believes Kremlin anymore. The allegation are ridiculous as it's a complete nonsense.
2/

Q2: Is the nuclear threat to Ukraine from #Russia increasing?
#Hodges: The use of nukes is probable but improbable. Nevertheless, Kremlin will try to continue to hit Ukrainian infrastructure to make it uninhabitable.
3/

#Hodges: Kremlin will continue to deport Ukrainians from the occupied territories. And pressure Ukraine. For how long? It depends on the support of the West for Ukraine and on the domestic support for Kremlin.
4/

#Hodges: It's incredible how russian people are still tolerating the losses that Russia has on the battlefield, the KIA, the sanctions and the economic catastrophe, loss of prosperity and future prospects for the russian people.
5/

Q3: Will US and the West respond to #Russia detonating a nuclear weapon somewhere in the Black Sea for intimidation purposes?
#Hodges: We will respond, but we need to coordinate first with our allies (UK, France, Ukraine, etc.).
6/

#Hodges: the West will probably respond to russian nuclear provocation by hitting a russian military target inside Ukrainian territory.
7/

Q4: #Russia failed to take #Kyiv and is losing the war. Does this mean that the soviet-type army is losing to the modern-style, reconstructed #Ukrainian army?
#Hodges: When I was in change of US Army in Europe, I made a mistake - I overestimated the Russian army.
8/

#Hodges: Russian army is weak because of:
1) corruption, sending unprepared army
2) lack of actual battle experience
3) the exercises were more a training of parade than actual military practice
9/

#Feygin Q5: What about the #RussianMobilization ?
#Hodges: It's a crime - to send unprepared, unwilling soldiers to die in the battlefield.
Russia is trading bodies & human lives for time. To buy time and try to get a better conditions for negotiation.
10/

#Hodges: War is a battle of wills, really.
Russia is sending soldiers that don't want to be there and have nothing to fight or die for.
11/

#Feygin, Q6: Did anything surprise you in Russian Army when it invaded Ukraine?
#Hodges: Yes, I was shocked. Russia has some of the best electronic warfare, some good tanks. Yet, it's about how you use the weapons. Every destroyed russian tank was in the wrong place.
12/

#Hodges: Long lines of russian tanks and APCs on a single road. Its all wrong. They don't know how to fight properly.
13/

#Feygin: What about #Russian using Iranian drones?
#Hodges: I was surprised that Russia hasn't developed their own drones. They are running out of missiles... They were made a mistake & were unprepared for such a large scale war and to use mass drone attacks on civilians.
14/

#Arestovych joined the chat.
#Arestovych: To add to this: Russia realises that they cannot win this war that they started, so they are trying to avoid losing. They want to terrorise #Ukraine, overwhelm UA air-defence system and cause even more harm.
15

#Arestovych: They want to convince the West to stop supporting #Ukraine. Russia wants to pressure Ukraine via terror of civilians and Europe via influx of refugees into negotiations.
16/

Question from #Arestovych to #Hodges: What are the perspectives of creating an integral air-defence for Ukraine?
#Hodges: We will work on better air-defence for Ukraine.
Yet, it isn't possible to defend all Europe. We planned defence of air-fields & key military bases...
17/

#Hodges: There is one battalion of Patriot in Europe, but it cannot defend every inch of Europe. We realise this now when we see that #Russia is willing to use million-dollar missile to target and murder civilians.
18/

#Hodges: We don't have much left to transfer to #Ukraine but we will continue to work on the betterment of air-defence for #Ukraine, as we realise that it's key now!
19/

#Feygin: Do you have a comment on US soldiers in Romania now?
#Hodges: Romania is part of NATO, it's part of our normal military cooperation to have soldiers there. Russia cannot deal with Ukraine, there is no need to attack a NATO member on top of that.
20/

#Arestovych: What do you think will be the strategy of Kremlin when they realise in 2-3 months that they have failed?
#Hodges: Kremlin lost. I am sure of that. They are just buying time & prolonging the conflict now. They hope that after Midterm election in the US...
21/

#Hodges: Russia hopes that the Congress will change its opinion after Midterms and stop supporting Ukraine. Kremlin is buying time.
22/

#Hodges: Assuming that US continues its support for Ukraine and that the sanction against russia stay, I believe that Ukraine will recover the territories occupied by russian since 24th Feb. in 2-3 months and Crimea by the summer 2023.
22/

#Hodges: I think Kremlin actualy realises it. And soon they will need to start trying to save their regime in Russia.
As Dr. T. Snyder put it: "It's bad for a russian leader to lose in #Ukraine but it's worse to lose in #Russia."
24/

#Feygin: On Ukrainian application for NATO assention
#Hodges: I will be happy if Ukraine becomes part of NATO. It's not immediate, but it will be a part of a larger US & NATO security strategy in the Black Sea.
25/

#Arestovych: How can #Ukraine help NATO once it joins the alliance?
#Hodges: It's amazing how all the ex-Soviet bloc countries are actually seeking to join NATO alliance.
From the day 1, Ukraine will actually be a security provider for the NATO alliance.
26/

#Hodges: Ukraine joining will help to create a safer Europe and can finally allow other countries like Belarus, Serbia, amongst the others to break from the russian dominance and oppression.
27/

Final question by #Feygin: On China - there are internal processes happening in China, completing its transformation into a totalitarian regime. But can China decide to finally help Russia or will it stay neutral & preserve its ties with the West?
28/

#Hodges: In the meeting in Samarkand both China and India made it clear that they refuse to help Russian in its war and warned to not even dare to use nuclear weapon against Ukraine.
Moreover, China is unhappy with Kremlin for starting this war...
29/

#Hodges: The russian aggression woke up and unified the West. NATO will be more prepared and stronger. Now, we need to continue support of Ukraine otherwise it can be seen as weakness & encourage an attack on, e.g. Taiwan, putting the global security in risk.
End of stream
30/30