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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Oct 26 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Brent should have good run into Jan. BOJ Yen interv -> UST break -> weaker USD vs €\£ & EM..!

TTF/power price correction til Dec supports € s-term; CCP early import quotas; diesel shortages; 1mbpd Urals at risk; NOV OPEC cut; little unemployment yet = constructive.

#com
Last week's build reversed too (I was wrong on my early interpretation) by full 30mb.

#OOTT
Higher oil on water due to ton-mile addition, not demand issues.

With macro (USD) reversal @potus will need a new JCPOA deal (to which OPEC+ will react immediately) and more SPR releases.

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 25
How long will EU gas prices and with it EU power prices and likely the Euro, inflation expectations and European rates get a break?

Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?

1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
The main consumers of gas is North West, Central & South East EU. We disregard Nordics which consumes little.

North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!

Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.

2/n
Both South East & Central Europe are 5% above 30-year normal temps too. Both regions are forecast to normalise after 10 November.

That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.

My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).

3/n
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 23
The only certainty for European natural gas prices going forward is volatility, volatility and more volatility.

Here is why...

1/n #LNG #TTF Image
The Great Rotation: With the invastion of Ukraine, VVP decided to use gas as a weapon & cut pipeline flows into Europe.

In return, Europe maxed out LNG terminal capacities & contracted every available free LNG cargo globally to compensate the collapse of Russian flows.

2/n Image
Europe was able to attract LNG by being the best business globally.

How? By offering the highest prices. A cargo owner such as Trafigura or Total which bought LNG at Cheniere in US for $4.1/MMBtu + $3 gasification fee in Jan 2022 booked a pre-shipping profit of $21/MMBtu.

3/n Image
Read 14 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 19
Let us look at the European gas market.

Why has TTF collapsed? Is Europe out of the woods? What matters for commodity price formations? What will matter in 2023...?

1/n
European gas prices - both TTF & NBP - have collapsed right into the start of the winter season, down from its peak of €338/MWh post Nord Stream 1 sabotage news to now €63/MWh.

Mind you though, TTF was €13/MWh 2 years prior - up still 370%.

2/n
Why is TTF lower?

Because natgas can only be consumed or stored. If storage is (95%) full & not consumed (mild weather), prices have to do the work to keep system balanced as comdties trade in present (d-s), unlike equities/bonds which discount future.

3/n EU storage in %
Read 16 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 11
Let's look at Russian crude oil & petroleum product flows after 7 months of war.

Did the six sanction packages as announced by the European Commission already have an effect on exports?

1/n #Russia #OOTT @kittysquiddy @UrbanKaoboy @kingofcrude @AndurandPierre @AzizSapphire
Upfront, we collect a lot of data in real time and yet, we have to make certain assumptions. Such cells are marked in yellow for ease of reference.

On that basis, implied Russian crude production has reduced by as much as 1.5mbpd since January 2022 - a lot.

2/n
Who is buying less, who is buying more RUS crude?

OECD Europe buys 1.4mbpd less crude (sanction in Dec); Japan & Korea also down 250kbpd.

China up 100-150kbpd (little; they like diversifiction);

India up from 40 to 800kpbd;

Med Region up 150-200kbpd.

3/n
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 5
OPEC+ quota cut was clever leadership by HRH MBA.

Among others, it removes 0.8-1.0mbpd of PRODUCTION, bringing KSA back to a sustainable profile while it may not reduce OPEC EXPORTS as KSA/UAE/K consume less crude themselves in winter. Yet, it should keep the shorts in check.
@kittysquiddy @AndurandPierre @UrbanKaoboy @econ_713 @kingofcrude @anasalhajji @AzizSapphire @staunovo @Amena__Bakr @ARaj_Energy
I subscribe to everything HRH said. Media with brand names like @Reuters either hire the right journalists or do not deserve answers. Energy security is not a boulevard topic. Media outlets must understand their responsibilities in this too (underinvestment; climate hysteria).
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 1
September was an interesting month to understand the challenges of Germany's so called "Energiewende".

At first, it may not look unusual. Germany was able to export 2,076 GWh of electricity for the month and covered peak loads most of the times.

1/n #Electricity
Isolating its wind & solar generation (RES) for the month of Sept however reveals future challenges.

GER had 9 days in Sept with little #wind. Not just Germany, all of Europe. On avg, GER used 2.7GW of its 62GW wind cap.

That is a capacity factor of 4.5%. Ouch!

2/n
While Sept turned GER into an importer for 2d (from CZE, SWE & DK) to cover consumption (FRA couldn't help; coal maxed out), RES also required it to export excesses during 15d.

Its Energiewende already turned GER into an imp/export "junky" as d-s are tough to match.

3/
Read 13 tweets

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