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#FatefulTriangle
1/ Militarily, TPLF looks finished; at least as a conventional fighting force. At least for the time being. Its ranks decimated, its fighters demoralized and its popular support at an all time low.
#FatefulTriangle
1/ Militarily, TPLF looks finished; at least as a conventional fighting force. At least for the time being. Its ranks decimated, its fighters demoralized and its popular support at an all time low.
2/ In reality, #TPLF has nothing in its hands to bargain with, other than the threat of future insurgency. At this point in time, the only bargaining chip it has is the support of the USG.
3/ The US is in the talks not only to 'observe' but also 'particiapte', as per @StateDeptSpox Ned Price.
https://twitter.com/TesfaALG/status/1584714020640038912?s=20&t=VSngIbp2fKq2pplSC4cjrw
4/ The US is the third negotiating party. The fact that the TPLF delegation flew out on a US army plane along with @MikeHammerUSA is very telling. It is also telling that the preconditions put forth by TPLF are carbon copy of the one outlined by @StateDept. It is Team TPLF/USA. 
5/ The US is at the table for the sole purpose of keeping #TPLF alive; convinced that the only power that can keep the HoA divided & subservient to the interest of the west is TPLF and they are threatening GoE with sanctions & financial embargo on behalf of #TPLFinc.
6/ Normalization of relationship, financial support through WBG & IMF and possibly even the return of AGOA would be touted as potential rewards.
7/ In the SA negotiations, the red lines for team Ethiopia are most probably claims over Welkait and Raya and disarmament of TPLF. These should be NONNEGOTIABLE!
8/ For team TPLF/USG, the concessions they want so desperately are assurances re the continuation of TPLF as a political entity to be used as a continuous leverage by the US in HoA.
9/ However, the continued gains by ENDF are keeping the Team TPLF/USG bargaining powers less compelling & shifting the discussion towards terms of surrender and the fate of TPLF leaders. Hence, their insistence on 'immediate cessation of hostilities.'
https://twitter.com/BisratLKabeta/status/1584955140317974529?s=20&t=VSngIbp2fKq2pplSC4cjrw
10/ The US is hoping that the GoE would make significant concessions out fear of being punished economically through WBG and IMF. The bills that would make these possible are still sitting menacingly in both houses of Congress.
https://twitter.com/Qnie_Addis/status/1512857813248315403?s=20&t=VSngIbp2fKq2pplSC4cjrw
11/The question the GoE is probably grappling with at this moment is whether the US will go to that length once #TPLF is 6 feet under.
12/ Allowing TPLF to continue as an entity would most probably mean keeping a potentially very destabilizing force alive that could at any moment launch another insurgency or keep working with historical and geopolitical foes of Ethiopia.
13/ The #TPLF will wait quietly in the background for their opportunity. And the opportunities will come or will be manufactured by the likes of USG or Egypt. It is a matter of time.
14/ The alternative is equally daunting. The economy is already very strained by the financial warfare being waged against Ethiopia by the US and EU.
15/ However, if the TPLF are not viable anymore, to what end would these Western powers wield their influence. Retaliation? Cautionary tell for others who dare to defy the West? Or will they at last come to their senses and accept a #NewEthiopia without the scourge of TPLF?
16/ No one has all the answers. What we know is that a very high stake game of poker or Russian roulette is unfolding in SA.
One thing is crystal clear, though. This was a US-EU war as much as it was an Ethiopian one; albeit, one paid in full with #Ethiopian blood.
SAD!
One thing is crystal clear, though. This was a US-EU war as much as it was an Ethiopian one; albeit, one paid in full with #Ethiopian blood.
SAD!
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