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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
@Maverick_Equity
Oct 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐 Image
$PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ... Image
$PLTR Financials Actuals & Consensus:
Wall Street consensus expects:
👉$475m Q3 Revenues while for Q4 $507m with revenue growth just 21% and 17%
👉 1.9bn for 2022, 2.3bn for 2023 and 3bn for 2024 with revenue growth just 23%, 24% and 25% =🧐materially below management guidance? ImageImage
$PLTR Wall Street quarterly & yearly Sales revisions:
👉note the big revision from the summer ...
👉granted or not given we had good news coming from the company ? Food for thought ... ImageImage
Complementary, $PLTR Wall-Street view:
👉Note: Q4 2020 right to sell / not to buy as price overcooked given the parabolic run ... good to hedge parabolic runs in general ...
👉currently, 26% return potential based on average consensus estimates (Low target price 6, High at 20)... Image
$PLTR Financials highlights since going public, what to watch for going forward ?
👉revenue growth & margins are key for growth / SaaS companies ...
👉Recall: revenue growth in general is key for long-term stock performance ImageImage
Key question, how does $PLTR trade ?
👉trades like $ARKK Ark Invest innovation/hypergrowth investing ?
👉do they all trade based on the FED (balance sheet change % 1-year) ?
🧐Food for thought with this very interesting chart ... 😉Let that sink in! = bring the sink like Musk😉 Image
👉related on that with the key message: interest rates, liquidity ... matter a lot for valuation ... a lot ... $PLTR
$SPY #Stocks #Equities #ArkInvest #CathieWood #FED #InterestRates
$PLTR price floor ? Recall most recent private transactions & before DPO in Sep 2020:
👉during January 1 2020 - Aug 21 2020, transactions between $4.19 & $8.50
👉blue circle = VWAP which = more relevant metric: 6.3 the very latest
😉Let that sink in! = bring the sink like #Musk😉 Image
$PLTR one last question: when does Wall Street expect Palantir to become profitable ?
👉EPS GAAP in 2024 - too pessimistic ?
👉EPS Non-GAAP now in 2022
Cheers! ImageImage

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More from @Maverick_Equity

Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 17, 2024
✍️ The State of the US Economy in 45 Charts, Edition #2 is now live ... link in bio! Enjoy!

GDP, Job market, Consumers, Interest rates & yields, Housing, Inflation and Recession probability. Research via sleek charts that say 10,000 words ... Enjoy!Image
Structure and Toc ...

And now a thread🧵with the main highlights! Image
1) Q3 2023 real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.9% (q/q) … not bad at all …

👉 Q3 increase driven by increases in consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Overall, 14 of 22 industry groups contributed to the Q3 increase in real GDP

👉 the 4.9% growth rate is more than double the 2.35% median in the last 20 years

👉 note also the 2007-2009 recession, and also the 2020 Covid down & up swing

👉 reminder: every 6-8 years we get a recession, it’s just the business cycle … things recover, having a plan for when (not if) it happens makes it easy to weather the stormImage
Read 43 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jul 30, 2023
$TSLA Tesla Total Deliveries since 2012 ... ramping up actually just beginning? Food for thought ... Image
$TSLA Tesla Model 3/Y Production
Quarterly data since 2020
CAGR: 61.00% Image
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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
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👉🧐Contrarian indicator = hedge fund equity market exposure which is now exceptionally low ... as during 2008 Lehman, 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2020 Covid crash & now with higher rates, recession likelihood ... Thoughts? Food for thought ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
Complementary another contrarian metric & view:
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Thoughts ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 31, 2022
Big Tech Q3 key remark: %YoY change in operating margin, let that sink in!
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$GOOGL -7.5%
$AAPL -0.9%
$AMZN -2.4%
$MSFT -1.7%
Big tech drag on the S&P500 / $SPY
$META $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $TSLA
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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 29, 2022
$KR 🧵on a name not popular and not covered cause boring ... but makes money: +96% since January 2020, +5% in 2022 a year when not much worked ...
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR The Kroger capital allocation: Image
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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 27, 2022
Big Tech charts thread🧵🧵🧵visualizing fundamentals, less words, visuals say 1,000 words:
$META Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$META Facebook capital allocation:
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Food for thought ... thoughts ?
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👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
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👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
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