There's lots of justified concern about the #BlackSeaGrainInitiative after Russia suspended its participation.
I'd just note that (i) this sort of crisis with the deal was always quite likely; and (ii) the deal is not necessarily dead. [1/5]
economist.com/europe/2022/10…
I'd just note that (i) this sort of crisis with the deal was always quite likely; and (ii) the deal is not necessarily dead. [1/5]
economist.com/europe/2022/10…
When the #BlackSeaGrainInitiative was only a twinkle in the UNSG's eye in May, I told @TheEconomist that Russia could agree to a deal and then throw up obstacles to implementation. [2/5] economist.com/europe/2022/05…
There is a long history of stop-start diplomacy with Russia @UN over humanitarian initiatives - especially in #Syria - during which Moscow often threatens to halt cooperation entirely and then relents.
(I wrote about this for @ecfr years ago: ecfr.eu/wp-content/upl…). [3/5]
(I wrote about this for @ecfr years ago: ecfr.eu/wp-content/upl…). [3/5]
In the short term, Russia may use suspension of the #BlackSeaGrainInitiative to gain leverage in talks on #ammonia sales. [4/5] devex.com/news/fertilize…
As @CrisisGroup noted when the #BlackSeaGrainInitiative was signed, Russia can use the deal to win goodwill in the Global South.
My guess is Russia will restart deal if it (i) sees progress on #ammonia; and (ii) wants to avoid criticism in Global South. crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
My guess is Russia will restart deal if it (i) sees progress on #ammonia; and (ii) wants to avoid criticism in Global South. crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
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