Thread by @daansan_ml

I have started the #TimeSeries project about predicting Bitcoin #BTC price.

First I am going to try a traditional method: #ARIMA. Will it work? 🤔

If you don't know what it is 🧵👇

#datascience #artificialintelligence #machinelearning

It is composed of 3 elements:
1️⃣ AR: Auto-Regressive
2️⃣ I: Integrated
3️⃣ MA: Moving Average

Let's introduce them... 👇

1️⃣ [ AR ]-IMA

🔎It takes into account "p" previous values, in my case previous #BTC prices.

🔮To make the prediction it relies on the previous prices.

2️⃣ AR-[ I ]-MA

🔎It differentiates the values "d" times.

🔮The purpose of this is to make the time series stationary, which is a requirement for making predictions with this method.

3️⃣ ARI-[ MA ]

🔎It takes into consideration "q" previous residuals (actual value - prediction).

🔮To make the prediction it relies on how off the previous predictions were.

🤔But how to choose those three parameters "p", "d" and "q" ?

Soon more on this 😉

If you don't know what project I am talking about 👇👇👇👇

https://twitter.com/daansan_ml/status/1587494177562050560