Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too!
A trend shift in the dollar will add more confirmation to the Risk-On regime, which has been brewing under the surface for over a month now. Market Illiquidity improving is supporting the narrative of a possible shift. This really comes down to how the major components trade...
$EUR (largest $DXY component)
The EUR was able to blow through parity and get a good squeeze going in the last two days. We still have some distance to momo, a failure to break there will give very low confidence of a DXY trend shift sticking.
The Yen was able to blast through the wall and head for momo. We still have some room to cover and if we can't get through there it's going to be really hard for the EUR to carry DXY all alone. Big component.
The pound has been less volatile than the other components and continues to slowly make higher highs and lows. The EUR actually has less distance % wise to momo now than this! 👀
Let's take a moment here to understand WHAT is exactly going on in markets as people's emotions are bound to run rampant after what happened yesterday. We're going to go over $ES and what has happened psychologically to those participating...
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$SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA
Let's start with what happened on Oct 14th, we saw the emergence of underlying shifts in the #System that indicated just maybe there was more to Risk-On than would have met the eye. By this point, it was apparent to hedge an upside move into FOMC, Midterms, and CPI...
Post-FOMC markets react poorly and slid lower. The big caveat though was in the following session the market had trouble going lower. Now, why would that be IF Powell went full hawk? They tried to bring it lower...but couldn't. This is where we enter back into the Fed day range..
#Inflation: It’s existed since money's creation, yet people still don’t understand where it comes from and how to solve it. Societal leaders play games because they don't want you to realize this is the biggest scam of them all.
Let’s start with understanding inflation:
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Inflation measurements are derived from the changes in the Consumer Price Index “#CPI” over time. Inflation is the general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. Remember, Inflation is required in any monetary system to incentivize spending…
Overlaying CPI of major economies, we can see that there is a GLOBAL trend higher. Leaders worldwide have done a stellar job of criticizing companies for “price gouging”. Most of them are simple, they just point their finger at companies that sell major resources, like $XOM.
The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact.
$EUR (largest $DXY component)
EUR is back under parity this morning ahead of US CPI. For the time, we're still holding above mid-VAMP, but parity has been the key for quite some time now. If we can't hold it post-print, watch for lower VAMP.
Despite the Yen edging off its lows, we're still under the BoJ initial intervention level. Can we get back above and squeeze some shorts or will this shit the bed post CPI? Trend remains🐻
The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar".
$EUR (largest $DXY component)
The EUR is still stuck around parity as bulls and bears fight for dominance. We are at upper VAMP so some significant momentum is going to need to appear quickly as this has almost 300bps of short-term downside risk.
Similarly to the EUR, this is still unable to get above and run from its resistance level, with this one being the BoJ wall. Lower VAMP has yet to really lift off lows...