This chart is shows current market breadth. Note that macro setup was very different in 2015/16 ; massive stimulus outside US and the Fed paused after 1 hike. We narrowly avoided recession, and inflation was not an issue (deflation was).
This is very different from what we have now so don’t draw any hasty parallels and stay vigilant. #ES #investing
The key STILL is the dollar. Weaker dollar means less pressure on world economy means higher stock prices and good for Bitcoin. I wish it were that easy. To me it looks like #markets got ahead of themselves since October 1.
Earnings still point down and so do new manufacturing orders. The big shock may yet come (?) it still depends on the geopolitical conditions ie #WarInUkraine

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More from @MHiesboeck

Nov 20
⚠️ Further twists in the #FTX saga by @elliptic . Money laundering is under way using a service owned by Alameda/FTX

The Ether taken from FTX is currently being converted to #RenBTC, which allows it to be moved over to #bitcoin using a service called RenBridge, operated by Ren.
Ren was acquired by Alameda Research last year: lnkd.in/e_aDEbdG

#ftxcrash #ftxbankruptcy #cryptocurrency #financialcrime
The use of RenBridge in this way is textbook black hat hacker. Elliptic research showed how the service has been used to launder hundreds of millions of dollars in #crypto from ransomware, hacks: lnkd.in/eigGms5e
Read 5 tweets
Nov 19
Is this worrying ? ⁦@Grayscale⁩ won’t let us see under the hood 🤚 open.substack.com/pub/quoththera…
Grayscale refuses to tell us what is under the hood. Even after repeated request, the grandmother of all structured BTC products, which trades effectively at a 45% discount to spot,  doesn’t want to insure investors that their holders are what they claim to be.
GBTC could close the price/NAV gap easily, instead it choses to allow its holders to dump Bitcoin at $9500. This is hard to explain.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 18
British households are set for the steepest fall in living standards on record and the highest tax burden since the second world war after Jeremy Hunt laid out plans to cut public spending and raise revenue to fill a £55bn fiscal hole.
@FT reports
The chancellor told a sombre House of Commons that a massive fiscal consolidation, including £3obn of spending cuts and £25bn of tax rises, was needed to restore Britain's credibility and tame inflation.
"We are asking more from those who have more," he said. But forecasts by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility highlighted the coming pain for the entire country.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 25
The DTCC and R3 have moved into "parallel production" with project Ion. The "DLT-based" platform provides bi-lateral equity settlement for some of the US's largest banks and financial institutions. 

This is quietly massive for several reasons.
1. The DTCC doesn't do things by accident; they've implemented this because they and the FIs are getting major cost and risk management benefits, meaning the business case is real.
2. R3 has quietly built a business that consistently wins the big projects in CBDC and the financial market structure. 3.

#fintech #finance #capitalmarkets #defi #crypto
Read 5 tweets
Aug 25
Good morning. Hedge funds have lined up the biggest bet against Italian government bonds since the global #financialcrisis on concerns over political turmoil in Rome and the country’s dependence on Russian #gas imports.
The total value of Italy’s bonds borrowed by investors to wager on a fall in prices hit its highest level since January 2008 this month, at more than €39bn, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The rush to wager against Italy comes as the country faces rising economic headwinds from surging European natural gas prices prompted by Russia’s supply cuts and a fraught political climate, with elections looming in September.
Read 4 tweets

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