@PenalverJulio1 @lnedos @SamRamani2 The longer the war goes on, the worse it is for everybody. I believe that #Russia is looking at the battlefield as only ONE theater in this war. Another theater is the domestic politics of western countries: the higher costs of transportation & heating in the west WILL 1/
@PenalverJulio1 @lnedos @SamRamani2 cause them to back off OR result in economic harm (this has already occurred in #Germany, where factories have reduced production). #Russia believes that a restive domestic population will decrease support for #Ukraine.
Another theater is the geostrategic alliances that 2/
Another theater is the geostrategic alliances that 2/
@PenalverJulio1 @lnedos @SamRamani2 #Russia is cultivating greater ties with the #SCO & powers of the global south, including #Brazil & #India. It appears to me that Russia is intentionally going to make trade with THESE nations a larger part of its portfolio, thereby minimizing any damage that the West 3/
@PenalverJulio1 @lnedos @SamRamani2 can cause economically.
Finally, there's no doubt that #Russia is de-dollarizing. #China has signed a bilateral trade agreement with Russia, as have a handful of other nations. #Gold now constitutes about 20% of Russian foreign currency reserves.
I do not know if 4/
Finally, there's no doubt that #Russia is de-dollarizing. #China has signed a bilateral trade agreement with Russia, as have a handful of other nations. #Gold now constitutes about 20% of Russian foreign currency reserves.
I do not know if 4/
@PenalverJulio1 @lnedos @SamRamani2 #Russia's choices of theaters in this war will lead it to success or not. However, I do salute Russian policymakers for thinking "beyond the battlefield." 5/5
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