Thread by @JBelcourt73

Yesterday I talked about the carnage outside Bakhmut resembling Flanders fields, and the type of battle resembling Verdun and how that would shatter the Russian Army. Today I am going to expound on why I think this is the case. Armies shattering after failed offensives is not an

unknown thing. There are 3 really good examples from WWI and they all have some things in common. The Kerensky Offensive, The Nivelle Offensive and The German Spring Offensive of 1918 especially the later offensives that targeted the French and Americans.

All of them involved armies that had been absolutely mauled, poorly defined strategic objectives and a leadership disconnected from the trauma suffered by the troops. In the Kerensky Offensive, Gen Brusilov who had almost knocked Austria Hungary out of the war a year earlier

failed to understand that his success then had convinced the Russian troops that they were all dead men walking and this stoked revolutionary fever. He badly misread the situation and the offensive failed after less than 3 weeks. As many as 800k Russian's vanished from the army.

Some were killed, some wounded but most simply surrendered or deserted and went home. Russian attempts to restore order at the point of the bayonet is what lead to the July days crisis that helped set the stage for the eventual Bolshevik takeover. It was also the end of the

Russian Army as an intact fighting force, A few months later Lenin would sign a treaty with Germany ceding much of Ukraine, the Baltics, Belarus and Poland to Germany. The Russian troops had lost all interest in fighting for something they did not understand of have a stake in.

Occurring during the same deadly spring and summer of 1917 the Nivelle Offensive saw the French Army get slaughtered. Wave after wave of attacks into the teeth of alerted German defenses saw the French take nearly 190K casualties in 3 weeks. It was too much and along with dissati

over things like leave, food, and enlisted/officer relations the French mutinied. Unlike the Russian's the French did not fall apart, they still believed in defending France, but there was no more offensive combat power. Nivelle was sacked, Petain took over and began a crash

reform effort and the British had too take up the slack leading to the Battle of Passchendaele. Had the British Army been just a bit less stalwart and stiffed lipped they might have made this list. As it is the echoes of that battle linger on in the British psyche. I guess

I could have added the Italians falling apart at the Battle of Caporetto being exhausted from 11 different offensives to capture territory around the Isozono River. same story: exhausted troops, distant leadership and poorly defined war aims the troops did not believe in. It was

German success in Italy after all that convinced Ludendorff that Germany had a shot at knocking the allies out of the war before American strength was felt. The first part of the German Spring offensive went well by WWI standards. But the Germany Army lacked the ability to get

get deep and effect a breakthrough or encirclement. This inability let the British rally. Its at this point that the offensive becomes important to the #WarInUkraine. Ludendorff did not stop and fortify what he had taken. Instead he expended his offensive power on doomed attacks

in a series of attacks that gained less and less but cost more in lives and equipment each time. The attacks went on for months and destroyed the morale and fighting spirit of the German Army. When Ludendorff finally admitted defeat it was too late. Just 3 weeks later the allies

their Hundred Days Offensive and the German army fell apart. Germany was under real threat of invasion and the crisis this caused lead to more mutinies and the Kaiser was forced to abdicate and flee to Holland. In all 5 cases: Kerensky, Nivelle, Caporetto, Passchendaele, and

Spring the lessons are the same: Leadership must account for the condition of the troops. Their physical wellbeing and their morale. The troops must have faith that their leaders will only sell thier lives for some clearly defined and achievable war aim the troops can rally

behind that that leadership will be in touch with the realties on the ground. The #RussianArmy of 2022 enjoys none of this. They are a WWI style army as far as leadership and troop care goes. Not so for #Ukraine. #Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, why it matters and

that their leadership is looking for ways to make each individual soldier matter. Mistakes may be made, troops will die but I dare you too find a Ukrainian who thinks it is all in vain. Despite some brutal combat the Ukrainian army has never lost its elan, valor or will to battle

and it is a testament to the whole idea of Ukraine as an idea that it can inspire such efforts. Whose braver? The marines who raised the flag on Mount Suribachi, the Paratroopers who said "Nuts at Bastogne, the defenders of Rourke's Drift, the Alamo or Azovstal? We are watching

history being written. But... Ukraine can't do it alone. They fight because they have too. If they fail they lose everything. We must continue to support them. I don't tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill everyday for nothing. Send more, send better and send now. In

particular now the need is air defense. Russia knows she cannot win on the battle field so she is striking at the families and infrastructure of Ukraine. Missile attacks on the power grid, shelling NPP's, leveling apartment blocks... terrorism because #RussiaIsATerroristState. It

also means that we must keep standing up to fill in the gaps. Donations to Charites like @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps, and @3xR_team help those under threat of missile attack and cold fronts make it one more day. Donations to units like the @georgian_legion and

help speed up when the Russian Army shatters. We must also fight back online. Are you a #FELLA and member of #NAFO? The dis-info war rages. From countering Russian attempts to blame Ukraine for an act that that clearly show an act of Russian perfidy to accusing Ukraine of

shelling an NPP despite clear evidence than Russia is doing so as an attempt to engage in nuclear blackmail. This war is multi-domain and won't end until the Russian soldiers finally feel like facing off agaisnt Putin and his regime is the safer option than staying and dying in

Ukraine. Its all hands on deck to end the #GenocideOfUkrainians and Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin #RussiaIsLosing @mfa_russia <--- still losing and the peasants will have pitch forks soon.

@mfa_russia @threadreaderapp unroll please