Ukrainian and #Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of #Kreminna on December 2. /1 isw.pub/UkrWar120222
A prominent #Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in the forests south of #Kreminna and have reached the outskirts of #Chervonopopivka (about 10km northwest of Kreminna). /2 isw.pub/UkrWar120222
#Luhansk Oblast Administration head Serhiy Haidai vaguely noted that Ukrainian forces are “very close” to #Kreminna and stated that Ukrainian forces “visited” the Kreminska power substation in the vicinity of the settlement. /3 isw.pub/UkrWar120222
Haidai added that the weather is finally changing on the #Svatove-#Kreminna frontline, noting that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their maneuvers as the mud fully freezes in the area. /4 isw.pub/UkrWar120222
ISW had previously reported that fighting will likely intensify over that winter period given that frozen ground provides better conditions for maneuver warfare. /5 isw.pub/UkrWar120222
Russian forces continued ground attacks around #Bakhmut on December 4 and in doing so are likely continuing to suffer high casualties. isw.pub/UkrWar120422
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Berestove, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka.
3/ Social media footage posted by Ukrainian troops shows heavy fighting south of #Bakhmut in #Opytne, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the capture of Opytne is crucial to further Russian advances toward Bakhmut.
#Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on recent battlefield successes and prevent #Russian forces from regaining the battlefield initiative.
2/ Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group Serhii Cherevatyi stated on December 4 that frozen ground enables heavy wheeled and tracked vehicles to advance and that Ukrainian forces are preparing such vehicles for winter operations.
3/ Cherevatyi also stated that low-quality mobilized recruits and Wagner Group personnel recruited from Russian prisoners are unprepared for combat in the winter.
Conditions in eastern #Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed on December 3 that the ground has frozen along the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will likely increase the pace of their counteroffensive operations in the area as a result.
3/ Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also stated on December 2 that weather is finally changing on the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their counter-offensive maneuver operations as mud in the area fully freezes.
The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between #Russia and #Belarus. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ Russian Minister of Defense Army General Sergei #Shoigu met with Belarusian Minister of Defense Major General Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the Agreement on the Joint Provision of Regional Security in the Military Sphere.
3/ Shoigu also met with Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko during which Lukashenko stated that Belarusian and Russian forces continue to train together on Belarusian territory so that the “Union State [can] repel any aggression.
French President Emmanuel #Macron amplified Russian information operations about the West’s need to discuss “security guarantees” for #Russia in a televised interview on December 3. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ Macron stated that the West should consider how to address Russian security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine.
3/ “That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table," Macron said.
#Russia still poses a threat to the Ukrainian energy grid and civilian population despite #Ukraine air defense forces’ high rates of shooting down Russian missiles and drones. isw.pub/UkrWar120222
2/ The small % of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with Ukrainian President Zelensky stating that recent strikes had left six million Ukrainians without power ahead of winter.
3/ Russia will likely continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure at least as long as enough Russian weapons can get through to achieve effects.