NEW: #Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack #Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check today.
isw.pub/UkrWar121322
isw.pub/UkrWar121322
2/ #Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine.
3/ Rather, it involves #Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).
4/ These deployments and other movements are likely part of ongoing #Russian information operations suggesting that #Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine. ISW has written at length about why Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade.
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