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Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
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Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
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ON the - SIDE
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#FOMC rebooted recession narrative & risk, covid cases China, no #opec cuts, no #opec meeting until summer, recession narrative EU, bad economic data out of China, questions about long delays in China reopening, La Nina warmer winter, 2023 earnings & guidance as not great.
#FOMC rebooted recession narrative & risk, covid cases China, no #opec cuts, no #opec meeting until summer, recession narrative EU, bad economic data out of China, questions about long delays in China reopening, La Nina warmer winter, 2023 earnings & guidance as not great.
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Narrative of slower global economic growth 2023, #spr refill 2024 maybe if ever, more #spr release, windfall oil tax narrative, @potus rhetoric against oil companies, questions about oil demand 2023, delta opex in January, market pullback in January, Venezuela deal narrative.
Narrative of slower global economic growth 2023, #spr refill 2024 maybe if ever, more #spr release, windfall oil tax narrative, @potus rhetoric against oil companies, questions about oil demand 2023, delta opex in January, market pullback in January, Venezuela deal narrative.
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There is most always that surprise catalyst that pops up & moves & markets. Markets can't price in what they don't know. We see this all the time. So something could easily pop that spooks markets up or down.
There is most always that surprise catalyst that pops up & moves & markets. Markets can't price in what they don't know. We see this all the time. So something could easily pop that spooks markets up or down.
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I'll say this China & it's narratives move markets & I don't trust China or Xi or the CCP & their motives & agendas. So the reopening narrative for China wall street may like & trade on but in reality there may be issues there like it's fits & starts & covid cases for 8 weeks.
I'll say this China & it's narratives move markets & I don't trust China or Xi or the CCP & their motives & agendas. So the reopening narrative for China wall street may like & trade on but in reality there may be issues there like it's fits & starts & covid cases for 8 weeks.
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And China often throws a monkey wrench into markets.
And China often throws a monkey wrench into markets.
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The story in 2023 will move away from inflation & towards earnings guidance & growth.
The story in 2023 will move away from inflation & towards earnings guidance & growth.
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ON the + SIDE
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ON the + SIDE
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#SPR release done, February Russian refineries products ban, #putin chatter, the #G7 60. price cap ((( oh yeah that's in NEGATIVE category actually ))) winter season & standard #oil rally, China reopen narrative, rotation & positioning.
#SPR release done, February Russian refineries products ban, #putin chatter, the #G7 60. price cap ((( oh yeah that's in NEGATIVE category actually ))) winter season & standard #oil rally, China reopen narrative, rotation & positioning.
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#SPR release done, #putin chatter, winter season & standard #oil rally, China reopen narrative, rotation & positioning, any mid east tension & conflict Houthi or other.
#SPR release done, #putin chatter, winter season & standard #oil rally, China reopen narrative, rotation & positioning, any mid east tension & conflict Houthi or other.
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The #G7 Russian 60 price cap is actually a negative for oil markets and brings price DOWN that's a long discussion I've posted about that. But China & India will buy that #putin oil.
The #G7 Russian 60 price cap is actually a negative for oil markets and brings price DOWN that's a long discussion I've posted about that. But China & India will buy that #putin oil.
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The 60 price cap will be averted through Russia shipping it's own oil & setting up it's own insurance outfits as well as Indian China just ignoring the issue. And oil will be sold black market grey market & remixed via shady Greek shipping outfits.
The 60 price cap will be averted through Russia shipping it's own oil & setting up it's own insurance outfits as well as Indian China just ignoring the issue. And oil will be sold black market grey market & remixed via shady Greek shipping outfits.
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The real issue with the 60 price cap is that it actually will put negative pressure on oil prices & bring prices down. Why ? It's basic economics of supply & demand & PRICING PRESSURES.
The real issue with the 60 price cap is that it actually will put negative pressure on oil prices & bring prices down. Why ? It's basic economics of supply & demand & PRICING PRESSURES.
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We have net net the same amount of oil. But NOW some of that oil is being forced to be sold at a lesser price. So now buyers will buy MORE of the cheaper oil & buy LESS of the more expensive oil. And the result is LIQUIDITY is removed from $WTI & $BRENT & their price lowered.
We have net net the same amount of oil. But NOW some of that oil is being forced to be sold at a lesser price. So now buyers will buy MORE of the cheaper oil & buy LESS of the more expensive oil. And the result is LIQUIDITY is removed from $WTI & $BRENT & their price lowered.
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Cheaper Russian oil just MOVES buyers away from $WTI and or $BRENT & their are net net less buyers of that product ie less liquidity. That's why VOLUME has been decreasing in oil market. Less buyers is less volume is a lesser price.
Cheaper Russian oil just MOVES buyers away from $WTI and or $BRENT & their are net net less buyers of that product ie less liquidity. That's why VOLUME has been decreasing in oil market. Less buyers is less volume is a lesser price.
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The bull case in oil we know as medium & long term lack of cap ex & production fails to meet demand & new discipline from companies & CEOS. But in the near term the case is oil markets are amply supplied if not over supplied some say. Is that true ?
The bull case in oil we know as medium & long term lack of cap ex & production fails to meet demand & new discipline from companies & CEOS. But in the near term the case is oil markets are amply supplied if not over supplied some say. Is that true ?
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What I'm reading says #oil markets are currently balanced & that will change in Q2. The China narrative will define oil markets as will the general macro of recession & growth.
What I'm reading says #oil markets are currently balanced & that will change in Q2. The China narrative will define oil markets as will the general macro of recession & growth.
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You know the story. Wake up, shower, coffee, news check, watchlists RED RED RED -7.34% premarket.
You know the story. Wake up, shower, coffee, news check, watchlists RED RED RED -7.34% premarket.
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I had discussion today about a post I wrote last January about how 2022 would have a real problem from an INVISIBLE CATALYST the monster called liquidity. I predicted pretty easily crypto & otc would be a disaster in 2022. Seemed obvious to me 1 full year ago.
I had discussion today about a post I wrote last January about how 2022 would have a real problem from an INVISIBLE CATALYST the monster called liquidity. I predicted pretty easily crypto & otc would be a disaster in 2022. Seemed obvious to me 1 full year ago.
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We are in reality MONTHS away from a real SUBSTANTIVE sustainable rally in oil markets so be aware. The risk is the risk we can't know. And I have 99.9% confidence that $WTI will retest that 70 & do maybe a 67/68.
We are in reality MONTHS away from a real SUBSTANTIVE sustainable rally in oil markets so be aware. The risk is the risk we can't know. And I have 99.9% confidence that $WTI will retest that 70 & do maybe a 67/68.
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There will be some catalyst that pops us & hampers oil markets. And the equities are both attached & not to the commodity it just depends on the day.
There will be some catalyst that pops us & hampers oil markets. And the equities are both attached & not to the commodity it just depends on the day.
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I've been predicting moves on $WTI for a year with dam good accuracy & predicted that first move to the $93.50 & defined that as a key pivot. Have a look at my charts on $WTI & NOTE the levels I have marked out.
I've been predicting moves on $WTI for a year with dam good accuracy & predicted that first move to the $93.50 & defined that as a key pivot. Have a look at my charts on $WTI & NOTE the levels I have marked out.
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One thing you've not considered is the #spr refill could be a STRONG negative catalyst in the oil markets.
One thing you've not considered is the #spr refill could be a STRONG negative catalyst in the oil markets.
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If the #DOE want's to refill the reserves THEY WANT A GREAT PRICE !!! They want to pay 62.50 for that oil if not less. This mean NO refill of #spr until a republican is president & oil drops to 55.00.
If the #DOE want's to refill the reserves THEY WANT A GREAT PRICE !!! They want to pay 62.50 for that oil if not less. This mean NO refill of #spr until a republican is president & oil drops to 55.00.
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