Sources believe UNFIL driver was executed, bullet to head, after vehicle flipped over. Assassins used tools to cut through bulletproof vehicle.
Claim that bullet hit driver in head as he sped away challenged by what appears to be very thick bulletproof glass. #Ireland#Lebanon
The following image supports the narrative that Irish UNIFIL was assassinated point blank. Driver door shows signs of being pried open 👇 #Lebanon#Ireland
The image also shows concentrated bullet marks on windows, consistent with deliberate attempt to kill, not bullets sprayed at a car as it sped away as initial local reports suggested. #Lebanon#Ireland#UNIFIL
This is a deliberate message delivered in cold blood Hezbollah sent UNIFIL. Why? Is it reinforcing redlines regarding freedom of movement? Or is it revenge for an action it considered much more serious? Hard to tell, but I lean towards the later. There remains an unknown.
1-Early #Lebanon election results indicate Hezbollah lost parliament majority to civil society & opposing traditional forces. Longtime group allies knocked out in South, Beqaa & Mount Lebanon. While significant, strategically, country will remain hostage to group's weapons لبنان#
2- The significance is in that Hezbollah & Co can no longer claim to hold the legitimate majority. They suffered unprecedented setbacks in key districts. They will also have much harder time putting an ally in the presidency when Aoun's term expires in Nov 2022.
3- Hezbollah's Christian ally dealt a resounding defeat, with nemesis Lebanese Forces now set to be largest Christian bloc. Despite still holding on to some 16 seats, about a quarter of Aouni MPs are elected by Hezbollah voters. Gebran Bassil becoming president now distant dream.
THREAD
I argue in this @WSJopinion, that when Saudi & UAE decline phone calls @JoeBiden, rebuff request to lower oil prices & shy away from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no doubt a major crisis in U.S.-Arab Gulf relations is under way. wsj.com/articles/a-cri…
2- This will be exacerbated in the weeks ahead if the U.S. nears an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program, lifting many sanctions in the process. How Washington handles this unfolding predicament will shape the region’s future, and America’s place in it, for decades.
3-To the West, behavior of some Arab Gulf partners typifies erratic decisions made by strongmen such as Russia’s Putin. But does this explain why most Middle Eastern allies—Israel, Jordan, Turkey & Egypt—also are expanding ties to Russia & China at US expense? Probably not.
Incredible video of Lebanon Druze villagers stoping a Hezbollah rocket launch against Israel. People are tired and angry. No one wants war on behalf of Iran. #لبنان
This time Hezbollah got caught red handed by objecting civilians. No more unclaimed rocket fire to invite retaliation on their villages. How embarrassing. Unprecedented. #Lebanon#Iran#Israel
Lebanon Druze leader Joumblatt reportedly contacts municipal officials to condemn obstruction of Hezbollah rocket launcher.
Why would Joumblatt take such a position in stark contrast to his people’s sentiment? Fear. To mitigate against Hezbollah retaliation against community.
Interview (English) that got US Amb to #Lebanon banned from making public pronouncements. She affirms that US is largest donor to Lebanon rather than pushing country to financial ruins as Hezbollah chief Nasrallah claimed.
English language news story of her comments here.
Some in #Lebanon determined to demonstrate it's Hezbollastan, with all accompanying prosperity & freedom. Congratulations.
Hezbollah may have swallowed Lebanon, but its gonna be real hard to digest.
Deal reached on #Lebanon gov after 3 months of protests amidst deteriorating econ conditions. Line-up of twenty nominal technocrats to be announced, but politically gov even more beholden to pro-Hezbollah coalition.
Here's the who, how and so what of it all.
2- Weeks of wrangling seem to have ended after Hezbollah repeatedly stepped-in to sort out differences amongst allies. Hezb made clear it wants a gov ASAP, particularly after rising street violence & regional uncertainty post #qassemsulaimani killing
3- As a result, PM Diab expanded proposed cabinet from 18 to 20, & Speaker Berri ended push for more politically inclusive "gov of salvation," accepting Diab's nominally technocratic gov instead.
Berri met PM Diab for 2h last week to clear the air & agree on portfolios.