1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on December 18, 2022
Special failed war of #RussianArmy is still on its way..
On the #Ukraine side of things Some fronts line are now "stabilized" but on other areas the Ru are having some minor success.
#UkraineMap
2/ Quick recap here, & maybe come back later on if needed.
first, about #Kupiansk #Svatove
the general FEBA (frontline) seems to have remain almost the same for the last month even if extremely violent combats happened in several areas & Ru trying to push #UAarmy hard almost
3/ everywhere where there is a possible road or path to go around #ZSU defense. clearly trying to overwhelmed them and push them back, past the #Oskil river in order to gain a major control of the area & be able to have strong natural defensive line.
well. their plan failed.
4/ Also Ru are trying to go past #Kuzemivka (north and south) and gen staff reported a battle in the area of #Stelmakivka
#Стельмахівка 92623
indicating their plan is quite strong & they are ready to lose another equivalent of a BTG (in men equivalent) everyday in the area, in
5/ order to fulfill their general "plan".
I did not report last weeks but i have read several intel about a massive grouping from Russia in the north of #Kupiansk area and just behind or across the frontier. they have not been engaged yet, but they are building up something now
6/ basically their plan is quite simple in essence as they don't /can't do much right now in the "south" near #Kreminna because of the terrain and the fact Ukr are "protected" by the river.
So what Ru will try to do is very basic but "logical" too.
good thing is they
7/ won't be able to do much as the soil is not freezing at all, they don't have the ressources in mechanized forces and they totally (as explained recently) lacks proper help from drones to conduct major operations, & on top of that they lack ammo (even if still plenty).
but
8/ it is also "fair" to admit that they have switch somehow the way they are "advancing" directly under cover of direct fire support and even if losing lots of men, they are progressing in some areas.

Note #Novoselivske #Новоселівське apparently still remains under #ZSU control
9/ reminder : so basically Ru would like to go back in early Oct line to begin with, & then like in may/June, push down until the #Siverskyi donets (river)
(one more time) & establish themselves down there.
so don't be "fouled" with their real tactics.

10/ Same things goes for the #Svatove to #Kreminna area. Ru still sending all the fresh troops they can in order to "keep" Ukr along the river, & gain full control south of #Svatove but UkR still have gained some good grounds in some places
Also no more fights south of #Kreminna
11/ Apparently #Karmazynivka is supposed to be under Ru control.. but the gen area seems not 100% secure by Ru. so i let the area in "doubt".

ok what we do know is that #Ploschanka & #Chervonopopivka have been shelled by Ru & r now supposed to be under Ukr control, but hardly.
12/ I haven't seen much confirmations from a gain or a true loss out there from good sources (both way), so i would say that the situation may remain "fluid" down there.
some talk about #ZSU even in #Pishchane #Піщане or south in #Zhytlivka but nothing to confirm this at ALL!
13/ small reminder there to understand why it"s (relatively) important for Ukr to "lock" this entire position in order to be able the to try to seize #Kreminna or even create a bridge head in order to push later on to the most important #Starobilsk

15/ next : The situation in #Bilohorivka is still slightly moving but UKR remain master. Same in #Spirne
Holding here for months even if "destroy".
Ru is trying to push "south" to #Vyimka battle was recorded there.
#UAarmy stand strong.
#UkraineMap
16/ at one point Ru claimed to have the total control of the area, but they were pushed back. i can' t say for sure that UKr are indeed in the city itself (like Spirne) or in the area, but for sure, Ru were not able to go "through" these places.. so they are failing there 4 sure
17/ now : The situation North East of #Bakhmut is extremely difficult & Ukr forces are doing "miracles" everywhere because it is still clearly one of the main objective in the area.
they are still not IN the city itself.
But significant gain were made in several other villages
18/ like #Yakovlivka or #Soledar and even in the area between #Bakhmut near #Pidhorodne #Підгородне (still holding and very important places for the gen situation)
i've read lots of talk from Ru dreaming to get there to force the defenders of #Bakhmustke to move out..
because
19/ if they can reach this area they will be able to shell in the "back" of the defenders and then it would be quite untenable, hence the Ru would suddenly gain total control of the area in "one shot".
so this area if not often talked about is really an important place to keep!
20/ now if all the villages are taken by Ru in the coming weeks as they r moving slowly but steadily though - this is not going to be "dramatic" because there is 2 to 5 click West a natural line of defense with the #Bakhmutovka river!
so, it could help to grind 20k more Ru here
21/ moving to #Bakhmut south also the same goes there too but Ru have clearly made some real gain there & took almost all the high grounds but since then, #UAarmy forces have managed to contained & break the waves of assailants.
no breaking through in #Ivanhrad is recorded..
22/ now there r still some very important places for #Ukraine to control in order to still have some "reasonable" control over #Bakhmut & even over #Niuyork by "extension".
but i'll do a specific thread another day about that. lot to say here.
23/ now #Niuyork #Avdiivka they are slightly "going at it" but nothing for "real ". no heavy equipment to push trough & shitty soldiers to accomplish anything. & still no night advantage so stuck to stupid "day walk".
so situation remains the same from a month ago or so.
24/ as for the situation around #Permovaiske stays the same, but some gain were made by Ru army in 2 areas in #Optyne & #vodyane but basically bc of terrain & next line of defense is not going to be in their favor.
right now rivers are running
Also they don't have good equipement
25/ basically they don't have what is needed to go through all the Ukr defense lines there and it shows, and it will show more and more as they (Ru) have less and less -
but they can through lots of dead men there. no "chance"

reminder 4 km in months!!!
26/ now about the real "gain" (lol) of the day by the Russian :
it was today reported that "finally" #Mariinka #Maryinka #Марїнка downtown (& maybe more) was finally seized by Russians.
so Ukr would fall back to next defensive lines (after 8 years of war not only 10 months!)
27/ here a quick reminder of the situation (for the ones who are not fully aware of the situation) that also shows the preexisting " zone de demarcation" and the "outstanding" progress it is for Ru (disclaimer : nope)
because as they were at war for all

28/ these last years they have (like past Pisky as explained several times and it shows) several other layer of defenses back #Mariinka lots.
so they won't be able to gain much more gain in coming months (like elsewhere they can dream of 4km of gain for 20k more losses.. there)
29/ The about #Vuhledar area. since last month - absolutely no real progress was made by Ru, after a huge "push through" they are now also "stuck" there, with no more real air support /arty or enough materials or men to make the difference.
as i said last month : #Pyrrhus victory
30/ and that's it for the recap with the maps today.
still some other "small" reports near #GrandNovosilka but nothing major.
also nothing of importance along the #Dniepro river.
so... next part of the recap in couple hours now...
i need a break.... Cheers!

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More from @HeliosRunner

Dec 18
1/ Part 2 - Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on December 18, 2022

So official recap of the day/week by both Ukrainian and Russian
and several other "candies" for people as "nuts" as i am with stats.
NB. merci à Thomas pr le ptit coup de main :) Image
2/ recap semaine & soon (weeks before) we will enter a bad area even for Russia huge "ressources" and capabilities... ImageImage
3/ recap weeks losses (allegedly for Ru troops & material ) - quick explanation : take these numbers -15% -20%in some case) then take @oryxspioenkop 'assessed' numb x1.3 or 1.4 (depending) and then you'll have (between the two values) what should be a good "idea" of real losses. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Dec 12
1/ Combat Falcon-300 & maritime kamikaze drone: details of Ukrainian #UAV developments revealed:

#Moscow area & St. Petersburg allegedly could fall into the zone of damage of the Ukrainian Sokil-300 drone.
The Sokil-300 combat drone was developed in #Ukraine and seems now to be Image
2/ effective. New Ukr #Drones (sea kamikaze drone & Sokil-300 aviation combat drone) are (could) reportedly changing the course of hostilities according to this expert.
ua.linkedin.com/in/anatoliy-am…
Anatoliy #Amelin, an expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, in a column on
3/ the Norwegian Broadcasting Company , revealed the tactical and technical characteristics of the two "coolest Ukrainian developments", noting that Moscow and St. Petersburg fall now into the zone of damage of the Sokil-300 drone.
reminder :
Read 13 tweets
Dec 12
A deadly explosion rang out in #Skadovsk: the car of a deputy-Posipak of #Russia was blown up

In the temporarily captured city, the driver died as a result of the explosion of the collaborator's car.
Vitaly Buliuk's car was blown up

In the temporarily occupied Skadovsk of the
2/ #Kherson region, the car of a collaborator, deputy of the Kherson regional council Bulyuk, was blown up, he was hospitalized.

At 12.30 near Bulyuk's private house on the street. A collaborator's car exploded in Mariinsky, the Skadovsk City Council reported on Telegram.
3/ "Vitaly Bulyuk was taken to one of the Simferopol hospitals with injuries. The driver of the car died on the spot. He turned out to be the husband of Lyudmila Kozlova's collaborator," the report said.
reminder :
Read 4 tweets
Dec 12
1/ Alexander Sladkov statement "Ukrainian arty does whatever it wants."
saying #Russia counter-battery is really lacking efficiency because of a lack of ground reconnaissance and #UAVs that can quickly locate #Ukrainian artillery. "Our artillery is blind."
yeah.. so sad. nope
2/ "All talk about our superiority in artillery remains an empty phrase !!!"
and the "famous" Ru superiority (i learned it too this way) with counter battery is far gone!
#Ukrainian are able to sustain strong attacks because a blind is always falling fast if he runs unguided...
3/ "Do they report about this with intelligence"
oh no honey 😬😂👋 they don't!
bc this is what is about when you work in a total autocratic effing country based on fake "alpha" shit & reprimand & with no real intermediate structure/ competent non-commissioned officers (sous off
Read 22 tweets
Dec 11
1/ Merci Cedric!
effectivement il s'agit d'un véritable changement de doctrine d'emploi de l'ensemble meme du matériel et des manœuvres mais aussi une petite "revolution" de la pensée profonde du commandement sur place (bon ne rêvons pas, cela ne fait pas non plus des miracles..)
2/ j'ai demandé (pour certaines personnes qui avaient du mal à comprendre) à Stephane, de traduire (je n'ai pas trop le temps là tt de suite)
donc tu pourras voir la traduct° ..
et je suis sur que si il y a bien qq'un pour aller remettre en "bon ordre" ce texte en Fra, et le
3/ rendre intelligible/ compréhensible pour tous, tout en gardant toutes les explications techniques et les contextes historique...c'est bien toi qui en est capable!
a plus 😅👊👍

NB: je n'ai pas pu tt développer ds le texte original mais l'essentiel y est!
Read 4 tweets
Dec 11
1/oui je l'ai répété plusieurs fois.. moi j'ai juste arrêté de me battre et de l'expliquer parce que sinon j'y repasse a chaque fois des heures carrés, mais j'ai plein de comptes "amis" qui ont été "désabonnés" de mon compte et qd j'ai voulu savoir en DM ils étaient estomaqués.
2/ idem pour des comptes qui ont été soit disant "bloqués" par moi, ou encore des personnes qui n'ont jamais mes notifs quand je leur reponds si qq'un ne met un like ou un commentaire a mon commentaire et vice versa. des fois je découvre des commentaires (si j'ai le temps d'aller
3/ voir dans les reponses du tweet lui meme) sinon je n'ai pas la moitié des notifs, dans mes notifications justement...
et tout cela ce n'est pas nouveau, puisque certains "vieux copains" le savent ici, je l'avais évoqué il y a des mois de cela en arrière.
mais la comme les
Read 5 tweets

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