Thread by @douglewinenergy

Why I don't think there will be power outages this week, a thread:
1) It'll be ~10° warmer than Uri w/no snow/ice so:
- peak demand will be lower
- shouldn’t be nearly as many issues for gas supply & power plants
2) Peak demand @ 10am instead of overnight
#txlege #txwx 1/

Peak demand forecast is 69.5GW. Peak during Uri was between 76-82GW. However, the power went out in the early morning hours of Feb 15 at ~69.5GW, so that is very high demand. *But* the peak hitting at 10am instead of 1am is a massive difference. #txenergy 2/

There is little to no expected snow or ice so at 10am:
1) we'll have lots of solar production (more on that below) and
2) workers can get to sites where there are freezing issues. In many cases, they couldn't during the Uri #texasblackouts 3/

Things to watch: how much gas supply drops offline. Only a few people know what’s on the “electricity supply chain map” created by the @puctx & @rrctx.

So how much gas supply is winterized? We don’t know. Typically, when it gets this cold (Permian forecast low ~10°F)... 4/

…lots of gas drillers will voluntarily “shut in," aka turn off, similar to turning the water off at the street before a deep freeze. Many companies do this to protect their equipment.

We saw 15-25% drops in production last year in conditions not as cold as this cold snap. 5/

In Feb 2021, the largest number of gas supply outages were from voluntary shut-ins, more than twice as many as from “freezing” & 4x as many from “power grid” issues (TXOGA & RRC claimed the grid was the biggest problem but this FERC/NERC graph tells a different story) #txlege 6/

This is still a major problem as the RRC does not require producers to operate, meaning they can choose not to. If enough of them choose not to, prices go higher and gas supply becomes a problem for the system. More explanation of this here:
#txlege 7/

https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1556694892058910721?s=20&t=QIWMBPTgKsWs4UZedZ-kJg

The other major risk is forecast miss. If the temperatures are colder, demand could spike to much higher levels. This is because resistance heat, when temps drop below 32°, kicks on in ~4m Texas homes & increases at an exponential rate w/ each degree. 8/

https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1461011260368199686?s=20&t=HYA5vKral2-4uPZBKtH20Q

This front likely won’t quite be cold enough to push demand >75GW where outage risk is higher but should we get a cold snap with prolonged <10° statewide, because we *still* haven’t even begun to address resistance heat or #energyefficiency, there could be outages. #txlege 9/

The two other major variables along w/ demand & gas supply outages: thermal power plant outages and wind production. As of this morning, there are 10.2GW of thermal plants offline. I expect that number will go down as we near the peak on the morning of 12/23. #energytwitter 10/

#Wind is forecast to be between 10-13GW on the peak morning of 12/23. It is also forecast to be a sunny day and #solar is expected to be ~8GW at the 10am peak increasing to 9GW later in the day. This combined ~20GW is a major factor. #txlege 11/

So: w/ temps much less severe than Feb 2021, a peak demand @~70GW, ~20GW of #wind & #solar, and <10GW of thermal outages, I don’t think there will be any bulk grid problems. Wild card is gas production which we'll need to watch closely as a potential sign of future trouble. 12/

Still, as always, be prepared. Local outages can happen (we need more rooftop solar, storage & #energyefficiency to help with the local distribution grid problems) so have enough water, food, firewood, etc. on hand & check on vulnerable family, friends, & neighbors often. 13/

Good advice here from @NWS:

More from NWS here. Notice the "insulate your attic" & "caulk & weather strip doors/windows." The @PUCTX could've acted to increase these activities statewide to reduce demand. But they have not, leaving us more vulnerable than we need to be. #txlege 15/

I'll post updates here if forecasts or circumstances change. For now though: get ready just in case but this cold front doesn't look anything like the conditions during Uri. This does not appear to be a major test of the grid.
End/🧵 #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter