President Zelensky of #Ukraine has just completed his historic and stirring speech to the US Congress. What were his key messages, and what might we take away from his address? A thread on my initial impressions. 1/24 🧵
2/ Back in February, such an address was unimaginable for most people. In the grim first few days of the Russian invasion, @ZelenskyyUa uttered those immortal words “I need ammunition, not a ride”.
3/ Not only was he telling his people that he was staying to lead them no matter what, his words electrified western populations and government leaders. The aid began to flow despite the concerns by some that Russian might succeed. #Leadership
4/ Since that time, the world has watched as the Ukrainian people and their soldiers have stood up and resisted Russia’s illegal and brutal depredations. They have endured torture, rape, and the destruction of the towns and cities.
5/ They have slowly but surely turned the tide of a war that was forced upon them. Defeating the Russian Army before #Kyiv, they then held off a renewed Russian onslaught in the Donbas, despite losing some of the key cities there.
6/ And then, the #Kharkiv and #Kherson offensives showed that the Ukrainians wouldn't just defend themselves and corrode Russian fighting power. These offensives demonstrated that #Ukraine could and would take back their lands occupied by Russia.
7/ And now, President @ZelenskyyUa, the leader of a free country that against all odds have resisted the might of Russia and consistently beaten them on the battlefield, has spoken to the US Congress, and through this, the people of the America. And the world.
8/ What key messages might we take from his speech today?
9/ First, #Ukraine is hugely appreciative of the support it has received from America. In describing this deep-felt thanks, he linked American sacrifices in the Battle of the Bulge to those of Ukrainians over this winter.
10/ Throughout his speech, @ZelenskyyUa showed the deep appreciation for the ongoing support from the American people, Congress and the US administration.
11/ Second, @ZelenskyyUa described this as a war that all democracies have an interest it. It isn’t just about #Ukraine and Russia. He spoke about Ukraine’s fight being something that connects all free nations, regardless of whether they have the "security of wide oceans" or not.
12/ And he reminded us that if Russia and its allies like Iran are not stopped now, where else might they strike in future.
13/ His third key message was that now is not the time for negotiations. It must be fought and won now. He notes how “This battle cannot be frozen or postponed.” His 10 point peace formula is the Ukrainian end game. He called for bipartisan Congressional support for it.
14/ Fourth, before they can defeat Russia, continued assistance will be needed. In calling for more assistance, he linked the Battle of Saratoga to the Battle of Bakhmut as a potential turning point in the war.
15/ Zelensky also described the need for an expanded range of military support from the US. As he notes in his speech, “Ukrainians can operate American tanks and planes themselves.”
16/ There were some important takeaways. The most important is that @ZelenskyyUa is calling for US support to continue (and even increase) in order to defeat Russia. And if Russia isn't defeated now, they will have to be dealt with eventually.
17/ As part of his visit Zelensky would be keen to also convert those in Congress and beyond who might be skeptical about supporting Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. He would also want to ensure there is no expansion in the number who think this way.
18/ Zelensky will have used this trip to build relationships with the incoming Republican leadership of the House in Congress, as well as in the Biden administration. He knows he needs administration and congressional support to fund military and economic assistance.
19/ In his speech, he called assistance to Ukraine "not charity. It is a donation to global security and democracy which we handle in the most responsible way.” This is an important message about accountability and responsible use of assistance by Ukraine.
20/ He was targeting those who have questioned 'blank cheques' & accountability. After the speech, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was quoted in @washingtonpost saying “I support Ukraine but never supported a blank check. We want to make sure there’s accountability.”
21/ Finally, as people go on their Christmas holidays, Zelensky wants people to think about #Ukraine and what they are enduring to defeat a vicious authoritarian bully. His address to Congress was a way to keep the war in Ukraine at the forefront of international thinking.
22/ In his speech, @ZelenskyyUa reminded America and many around the world that Ukraine remains "alive and kicking".
23/ At heart, @ZelenskyyUa wants the world to know, to give us all confidence, that #Ukraine can and will win this war. But it will require patience, support and commitment from America and its friends for Ukraine to prevail. End
Recently, there has been much commentary about whether #Ukraine can - or should - seek to take back its Crimean territory through the force of arms. #Crimea remains Ukrainian territory, occupied by Russia since 2014. A thread on how all roads may lead to Crimea in 2023. 1/20 🧵
2/ There is no prospect of Russia negotiating over the future of #Crimea unless they are forced to through continuing battlefield defeats. Putin has shown zero inclination to give up annexed territory he doesn’t control, let alone Ukrainian territory he illegally seized in 2014.
3/ How might Ukraine, and its supporters in the international community, move towards an outcome where Ukraine regains control of this part of its territory? abc.net.au/news/2022-12-2…
War is a very destructive human endeavour. But war is also a learning opportunity for military institutions. Many governments and institutions are watching the war in #Ukraine for insights into future competition and conflict. A thread on lessons and the war. 1/25 🧵
2/ Back in May, I explored why learning in war is so important, and explained some of the principles related to lessons and lessons learned for military organisations. You can read that post here:
3/ In the past ten months there has been a profusion of articles that propose lists of lessons from the Russo-Ukraine War. Some – from experts on war, the military, strategy and national security affairs - are well informed and cogently argued. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
In 1914-1915, a scandal erupted in England about the shortage of high explosive shells for the western front. There was a lag in industry expanding to satisfy the enormous consumption of munitions in the war. Something similar is occurring now with #Ukraine. 1/24
2/ Importantly, the WW1 shell crisis was also a symptom of a military institution that had failed to anticipate the challenges of modern war. The current shortage of munitions should be understood as a government & military failure to anticipate. smh.com.au/world/europe/a…
3/ Consequently in 2023, the Ukrainian Army may run out of munitions before it runs out of fight. Based on current usage of ammunition in the war, production of munitions is increasingly lagging battlefield needs.
The uncertainty inherent in military operations is part of the enduring nature of war. It is impossible for a military institution to anticipate everything. Therefore, a key virtue for military organizations in war must be adaptability. Adaptation in #Ukraine - an update 1/25 🧵
2/ As @DWBarno76 & @norabensahel have written, “even if militaries do imagine the next war accurately, the opening battles often unfold in spectacularly unexpected ways—with even well-trained armies often taken by surprise.”
3/ Belligerents constantly seek ways to outthink & out fight the other side. New technologies are introduced, new tactics developed & new organisations are introduced to exploit new ideas and technologies.
2/ First, the headline is the nuclear issue. Putin is walking back some of his more bellicose statements, now claiming that Russia would not use them first. This is positive (if he is genuine), but what does this really mean?
3/ He is enlarging the corner he has painted himself into with his #Ukraine invasion. Currently, he has minimal strategic room for manoeuvre. By ruling out nuclear first use, he further reduces any potential for NATO direct intervention in the war.
There remains much uncertainty about the reported Ukrainian strike on Russian airbases in the past 24 hours. This appears to provide some corroboration. What does this mean for the Russo-Ukraine war? 1/15 🧵