Thread by @R__Politik

Some observations on Putin's recent speeches, especially his conversation with journalists on 22 December. A longer thread this #ChristmasEve on #Putin’s interpretation of the #UkraineWar

📌Over the past three months, fatigue has clearly accumulated, optimism has noticeably disappeared, and discouragement has come in its place. No anxiety yet, but sadness and disappointment.

📌There is a very pronounced misunderstanding on Putin’s part as to why Ukraine does not give up, as to why there are no internal disputes about the need to capitulate, because it seems to him that they are doomed.

To Putin it looks like the further it all drags on, the more unnecessary sacrifices there will be on both sides, and the more expensive the “price” of the future Russian victory will be, in which he still believes. This upsets him greatly.

📌The same misunderstanding concerns the West: is the desire to crush Russia so strong that they will fight to the last Ukrainian? There is disappointment and pain because everything is not going as it seems logical to him: disagreements between Western countries are not…

intensifying, a more conservative and nationally oriented intra-Western opposition is not rising, a revolt of the masses is not born, and so on. Even if it all seems to be there, it is happening far too slowly.

📌The war with Ukraine has now definitely become perceived as a civil war between brotherly peoples: Putin openly blames the Americans for “first pulling us [Russians and Ukrainians] apart, separating us, and then pitting us against each other.”

Another very revealing phrase: “No one wants the unification of the Russian people.” There is a strong sense of fatalism, of doom, and of loneliness. Putin has not shown himself like this for a long time. Or maybe never.

📌However, he is not ready for any sort of peace. “Our goal is not to spin this flywheel of a military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war” - this phrase should not be perceived as a change of position and readiness for negotiations.

It is rather a manifestation of internal shock about the fact that the West is so “wasting” “our” Ukraine (yes, that's how he sees it), multiplied by emotional rejection and a misunderstanding of external hostility; we came to save, the historical truth is ours, but …

justice fails to prevail in any way. He doesn't blame himself for anything.

📌An important evolution: if at the beginning of the war it seemed to Putin that he had now taken everything into his own hands and was reshaping the world, now he again feels like a victim of circumstances.

The war is a result of the systematic efforts of the United States, which brought Russia to this “stage” of fratricidal war.

📌There is no regret about his actions. “We had no other way out”, “we have nowhere to retreat….” All this is already pronounced with sadness, but there is no doubt for him that it is necessary to continue.

“The chicken pecks grain by grain" - this is his view of how Russia will behave in the coming months. That is, to slowly crush and strangle Ukraine, avoiding large-scale fighting. There is a sense of readiness for a protracted confrontation.

Although there is “bitter” emotion about the human victims, in his perception the existence of Russia is at stake, which means it is impossible to stop.

📌 The feeling of guilt towards the military is noticeable. The fact that he has to throw soldiers into the “furnace” of war clearly causes him moral pain, and that is much more pronounced than a sense of responsibility to mothers.

But he places the main blame, of course, on the West; if Kyiv had not been supported, everything would have already ended.

📌He is significantly emotional about the patriots. His words about the fact that the patriotism of young people makes him cry are clear evidence of how his administration, in general, has learned to touch the right strings.

But at the heart of this is a sense of guilt that he has drawn millions into this war and that it went the way it went. This feeling “asks” for collective solidarity and constant support. Otherwise, the burden becomes unbearable.

📌 Lastly, there is a clear division in Putin's perception of the real patriots, for whom he has a very reverent attitude, and the non-patriots, whom he sees as a threat.

This lays the foundation for the development of a more complex and ruthless system of recognizing the “friend” and the “enemy” - a mechanism of protection against the latter. That’s to say that things are moving towards more mass repressions and a more developed state ideology.

The conclusion to the post above is that Putin is getting more upset over what is happening. I have always argued with the thesis that Putin is cornered, that he is lost, and does not know what to do. And I continue to argue with this.

But there is a noticeable change in his emotional background from moderate optimism (recall his summer “we haven't started anything yet”) to depression. Even if there is victory tomorrow, he will not be especially happy - too heavy a price has been paid, and it’s far from over.

He still knows what to do, refuses to revise the “plan”, and simply does not understand what the alternative might be. He doesn't see it. But in his current situation, he is uncomfortable, too.