Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the #Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the #Ukrainian government capitulates to Russia’s demands.
2/ #Lavrov told a Russian state news wire that Ukraine & the West are “well aware of Russia’s proposals on the demilitarization and denazification” of Ukrainian-controlled territory & that the Russian military will settle these issues if Ukraine refuses to accept these proposals.
3/ Lavrov added that #Ukraine and the US must recognize #Russia’s seizure of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and said US-controlled Ukraine and the US are responsible for prolonging the war as they could "put an end to [Ukraine’s] senseless resistance."
4/ #Lavrov’s invocation of a military settlement for the war in #Ukraine that achieves #Russia’s original war aims follows Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s deliberately vague statements that Russia is open for negotiations on December 25.
5/ @TheStudyofWar assessed yesterday that #Putin’s comments were not an offer to negotiate with #Ukraine and indicated that he has not set serious conditions for negotiations. isw.pub/UkrWar122722
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The Kremlin is framing the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems and trainers to #Ukraine as an escalation in US-Russia relations, despite the fact that the transfer is if anything less escalatory than previous Western military shipments to Ukraine... isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed in a televised interview on December 28 that US officials had guaranteed to not send Patriot air defense trainers to #Ukraine in an effort to refrain from participating in the war
3/ The #Kremlin has previously highlighted the US transfer of Patriot air-defense systems in accusations that the United States and the West are waging a proxy war in Ukraine with the intent of weakening or destroying the Russian Federation.
The #Kremlin continues to systematically deny Ukrainian sovereignty and reiterate that #Russia has no genuine intention to engage in negotiation with #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Ukrainian proposal to prepare a peace initiative at the UN in February and emphasized that no peace plan can exist for #Ukraine without accounting for the entry of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, & Luhansk oblasts into #Russia.
3/ Peskov clearly indicated that the #Kremlin has no genuine intent to compromise its demands, thus directly undermining the Kremlin’s own narrative that #Russia is willing to talk but #Ukraine is not.
Russian forces appear less likely to conduct a new offensive in the #Zaporizhia Oblast over the winter. isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian forces are likely establishing defenses against possible Ukrainian offensive operations in #Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces likely destroyed a bridge over a river in Polohy on December 28.
3/ A senior Ukrainian military official stated on December 28 that there are no signs of Russian forces in #Zaporizhia Oblast forming strike groups despite some rotations and deployments there.
Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in #Luhansk Oblast, although it is unclear whether for defensive or offensive operations.🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian forces continue accumulating equipment and forces in Luhansk. Russian airborne (VDV) elements that were likely previously operating in Kherson Oblast appear to have redeployed to Luhansk Oblast following the Russian withdrawal from west bank Kherson Oblast in November.
3/ Social media images from late December increasingly show Russian equipment in transit in #Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces are operating military district-level thermobaric artillery assets in the Luhansk area of operations, which may indicate prioritization of operations there.
2/ @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed that #Wagner Group forces are serving a chiefly attritional role around #Bakhmut and have therefore likely become degraded to a near-debilitating extent and need reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements.
3/ High rates of attrition amongst the forces responsible for the offensive on #Bakhmut may expedite the culmination unless notable numbers of regular Russian military units are sent to sustain the offensive and delay or avert its culmination.
1/ The #Kremlin has approved additional funds for the development of defensive fortifications and is attempting to staff fortification efforts in Russian border areas and occupied #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to expand social benefits to participants of the “special military operation” while continuing to deny that Russians are participating in a full-fledged war.
3/ Russian Union of Lawyers Head Igor Trunov stated on December 28 that the Russian Health Ministry has determined that it can offer federal financial support for free conservation and storage of the sperm of mobilized servicemen who participate in the war between 2022 and 2024.