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Jan 5 7 tweets 3 min read
#Putin's Christmas #ceasefire, which was announced today, fits well with his logic, in which #Russia acts on the good side of history and fights for justice. This is of course how he understands it. 1/4
But, moreover, it is also partly a consequence of Ukraine destroying the technical college in Makiivka on New Year's Eve, which resulted in dozens or hundreds of Russian casualties, most of which were recently mobilised. 2/4
Putin really does not want a repetition of that on (Orthodox) #Christmas Day. And we must not forget the noble publicity game: ... 3/4
in this war Putin feels like the "good guy", doing a good deed not only for himself and "brotherly peoples" of #Russia and #Ukraine, but also for the world, freeing it from American "hegemony" (and for him it is truly a pity that so few people understand that). 4/4
❗️Addition:
War correspondents appear to be shocked by the announcement of the ceasefire. No one really understands why such games of 'virtue' are at all necessary. Here we see another dividing line between the very pro-war camp and Putin.
A number of these lines are already considerable: for example, over the scale of mobilisation, military tactics, personnel decisions concerning the Ministry of Defence, ...
the question of how fraternal the Ukrainian people truly are, and whether to wait for Ukraine to capitulate or to simply bomb them with everything possible to obtain rather the territory than "restore historical justice".

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More from @R__Politik

Jan 6
Three features of the situation at the beginning of 2023. A short thread 🧵 on the near future of #Russianpolitics
1. #Putin's dependence on the #Russian military has sharply increased. At the same time, the military itself is completely "subjugated" to the political leadership and does not have subjectivity, which means that we should not expect it to try to influence the president.
But all of Putin's "legacy,” all of his grandiose plans to restore historical justice, not to mention his own future and physical security, now directly depend on the people fighting at the front.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 6
To better understand the Christmas truce, we need to distinguish between the two approaches that are guiding #Putin at the same time.
The first is strategic: according to him, #Ukraine must be forced to surrender, whether that's in six months or in two years, it’s only a matter of time...
Putin believes that there is nowhere for Ukrainians to go, their only option is to capitulate. To anticipate it, he continues to count on the bombing of infrastructure.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
For R.Politik’s last tweet of the year, we would like to offer some final thoughts on the difficulties of 2022, the war in Ukraine, and the future development of Russian politics.
When summing up 2022, many people stick to stark adjectives, calling the year monstrously terrible or similar. The war has caused emotional shock, pain and a sharp sense of irreparable loss.
It is hard to argue with this perspective: it is a terrible and ongoing tragedy for millions of people.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 24, 2022
Some observations on Putin's recent speeches, especially his conversation with journalists on 22 December. A longer thread this #ChristmasEve on #Putin’s interpretation of the #UkraineWar
📌Over the past three months, fatigue has clearly accumulated, optimism has noticeably disappeared, and discouragement has come in its place. No anxiety yet, but sadness and disappointment.
📌There is a very pronounced misunderstanding on Putin’s part as to why Ukraine does not give up, as to why there are no internal disputes about the need to capitulate, because it seems to him that they are doomed.
Read 25 tweets
Nov 13, 2022
An elite split in #Russian politics? A thread 🧵. For a very long time I have been writing that there is no split between the Russian elites. Well, or, at least the internal divisions are not reaching the point of fierceness that they threaten the regime.
But recent military defeats are making a difference and the situation is changing. Now, to oversimplify, we can say that a strategic split is forming very quickly (and the surrender of #Kherson has sharply exacerbated it) around the question of "what’s next".
The elite is now splitting into two large parts:
Read 13 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
On the discussion of #Putin's rationality: Is Putin prepared to think rationally and adequately? In my opinion, this is not a very correct formulation of the question. Rationality is a very situational concept. 1/
Putin, whoever he thinks he is, is a mere mortal who is subject to emotions, has an occasional lapse of judgement and may act irrational. But he has also not lost the ability to calculate, to rationalise, and to make sober and sane decisions. 2/
He may be angry and unjustifiably stubborn in some circumstances and extremely pragmatic and rational in others. And this can be true for the same situations, as in the case of #Ukraine. 3/
Read 13 tweets

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