Thread by @R__Politik

Three features of the situation at the beginning of 2023. A short thread 🧵 on the near future of #Russianpolitics

1. #Putin's dependence on the #Russian military has sharply increased. At the same time, the military itself is completely "subjugated" to the political leadership and does not have subjectivity, which means that we should not expect it to try to influence the president.

But all of Putin's "legacy,” all of his grandiose plans to restore historical justice, not to mention his own future and physical security, now directly depend on the people fighting at the front.

Judging by the flow of appreciation and gratitude, even fawning over the military, Putin is acutely aware that this imbalance that has formed is not in his favour.

2. Russia's initiative has been lost. If you look at Putin's speeches at the end of February and compare them with current statements, especially with his very revealing press conference on December 22, it becomes clear how the initiative has slipped out of the Kremlin's hands…

in this geopolitical war. Now, in order to win, Russia needs to wait for changes where it has no control (many assume that it will not be possible to put an end to the conflict by military means).

That is, the West should collapse, and Ukraine should capitulate. Russia is not very good at promoting this, to put it mildly. Hence the increasingly active game of mercy, truce, and the attempts to persuade the world to force Ukraine to abandon its offensive.

This is the number one task today. I'm not sure it's going to work.

3. Creeping militarisation has begun. No matter how well Putin has persuaded himself that there would be no militarisation (as he said during the expanded board of the Ministry of Defense), it is already actively on people’s minds, including on the president’s.

On his part, promises not to militarise are deceptive. Reality takes its toll and dictates more adequate behaviour to the authorities, which is normal. Therefore, militarisation will be one of the main trends for at least the first half of 2023.

The war will come into professional, cultural, and educational everyday life... Everyone will be “on the front” in one way or another, if not physically, then psychologically.

It's hard to predict, but Putin will have to change his attitude towards Ukraine one way or another and become more realistic. This gives hope, albeit a very fragile one.