Thread by @R__Politik

R.Politik is pleased to present its first bulletin of 2023. We have focused on three main topics:

1️⃣ Christmas 'ceasefire'.
2️⃣ Medvedev’s political games.
3️⃣ Putin and the Armed Forces.

In this EDITION: rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b…

◽️The Christmas 'ceasefire'. We explain #Putin’s logic behind he decision to announce a 36-hour truce in #Ukraine, look closer into the reaction of the patriotic camp and how the president has to balance between two approaches - strategic one and situational.

Understanding this helps to predict Moscow’s further steps – both diplomatic and military. In this context we disclose the recent activities of Dmitry Kozak and whether it virtually implies the intention to talk about peace with the West.

In terms of Russian military plans, we also depict Putin’s visit to Belarus and Moscow’s agenda concerning Lukashenko.

◽️Medvedev’s games. The unexpected visit of #Medvedev to China, his growing role in overseeing military industry complex, boosting his public appearance - all this fuelled, once again, speculations about special prospective of Medvedev in Putin’s future plans.

We reveal what is behind it, also explaining Putin’s hopes concerning #China and how the #Russian elite seeks to benefit from the war to remain relevant.

◽️Putin and the Armed Forces. At the end of the year Putin held a meeting with the expanded board of Defence ministry where he gave the most noteworthy war-related speech since the announcement he made at the start of the war.

We reveal Putin’s attitude to Sergey Shoigu and Sergey Gerasimov and comment on the rumours about their dismissal, explain the military reform and elucidate why Russia is set to see a creeping militarisation of everyday life despite Putin’s contradictory attitude to it.

As always, our analysis is accompanied by social data, recent studies, as well as inside information from our sources. You’ll also find our recommended reading for extra insight into the reality of Russian politics.