Home builder construction costs finally cooling. Market commentary from our December survey of builders signals relief on the horizon...
#Dallas builder: “Hard costs continue to dip on average $3K-$5K per month. We are pushing back hard to lower our average labor and material costs. They must come down to reflect lower home selling prices.”
#Denver builder: “Almost all the home builders I am talking to are working on cost reductions. They range from -5% to -8% per plan.”
#Phoenix builder: “Front end trade partners are starting to reduce costs from their profits and some labor.”
#RichmondVA builder: “Expect costs to moderate or reverse somewhat in 2023 as contractors and suppliers chase their slice of a shrinking pie.”
#RiversideSanBernardino builder: “Costs were still going up throughout most of 2022. We are now working our way back down.”
#Sacramento builder: “Costs are slowly coming down. Down by about 5% in aggregate from peak in summer 2022.”
#SanAntonio builder: “As we finished out 2022, the trades still were busy, so they were not feeling the effects of the market cooling. They are already starting to feel that now.”
#SanDiego builder: “Since our production is nearly 6 months old, the costs are embedded. We certainly think better days are ahead. They had better be.”
#Seattle builder: “We have seen very few price increase letters for 2023, and actually a few decrease notifications.”
#WashingtonDC builder: “We have not been accepting any cost increases for the last 6 months.”
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Housing's had a wild up and down ride in 2022. Looking back at our report headlines, here’s how the year played out (I chose one per month to show market shifting)…
January 19th, 2022: “Prepare for Rising Rates”
February 21st, 2022: “Housing Strength Persists Despite 4% Mortgage Rates”
C-suite commentary on yesterday’s Tricon Residential earnings call alluded to single-family rental ‘shadow supply’ thesis...
“Starting to see return to normal seasonality in new lease trade-outs and moderation in overall level of rent growth.”
“One of the factors at play could be a higher supply of rental homes that we’re seeing in our markets, which might be caused by would-be home sellers opting to rent out their homes in light of challenging mortgage environment.”
Home builder commentary from our survey this month was about as negative as I've seen to date. Here's some of the market color that jumped out...
#OklahomaCity builder: "Biggest challenge is your customers who just closed their home and see you drop prices by $30,000."
#Jacksonville builder: "Buying land at the top of the market and having to pull every incentive lever to sell is not a recipe for success. We'll cut starts ~60% to 70% in 2023."
I wrote this piece for @FortuneMagazine yesterday, hoping to shed light on two items possibly weighing down home purchase activity that don’t get all that much attention. The main points were as follows… fortune.com/2022/09/09/spe…
1) A boatload of existing homeowners are locked in and in love with their sub-5% mortgage rate (many sub-3%), most of which tell us they won't purchase again if mortgage rates stay close to today's levels.
2) Existing homeowners also account for about half of all home purchases (almost all of them use a mortgage), so the implied hit to potential home sales is meaningful near-term.
August home builder sentiment and sales/prices/starts survey results are in. Top themes: 1) Home price cuts along with other incentives are helping sales (for now). 2) Supply chain is healing as demand drops and builders quickly slow housing starts. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “A lot of spec inventory to work through. August was a very poor month for sales across the board. Cancellations spiked from July and buyers showed no sense of urgency.”
#Baltimore builder: “Jumbo loan rates below 5% are helping buyers move forward in that segment.”
Home price trends across 20 top housing markets. Pace of price increases moderating (left chart), which you can see in our underlying home price index flattening out or actually falling in a few markets (right chart). Start it off with #Atlanta.