Thread by @eleonoratafuro

Lavrov is in #SouthAfrica today, kicking off his second African tour since the invasion of #Ukraine. He already visited four African countries last July & in February there will be four more. So why is #Russia launching this diplomacy offensive in Africa now? A short 🧵

According to TASS, the two ministers will discuss preparations for the 2nd Russian-African summit slated for July 26-29 in St. Petersburg. They could also exchange views on #BRICS, presided over by South Africa this year.

tass.com/politics/15655…

SA is one of Russia's most important allies on a continent that is divided over the invasion of #Ukraine and related Western isolation attempts. Moscow wants to show it still has trade &security partners who won't stop doing business with 🇷🇺 because of its aggression against 🇺🇦

While Ramaphosa says 🇿🇦is neutral & proposed to mediate, he also blamed NATO for the conflict. Meanwhile, FM Pandor has criticised the West for secondary sanctions & its selective condemnation of 🇷🇺while ignoring issues such as the Israeli occupation of 🇵🇸 reuters.com/world/blinken-…

🇷🇺 narratives abt Western double standards &patronising attitudes resonate well in Africa and speak to the history of the USSR helping anti-colonial movements. They are a key part of Moscow's soft power strategy on the continent today, as I claim here: saiia.org.za/research/russi…

🇿🇦 neutrality, though, is increasingly called into question as Pretoria will hold military exercises with the Chinese and Russian navies on February 17-26. A Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons will also participate in the drills aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/23…

🇿🇦 also matters to 🇷🇺 attempt to shift to settlements in national currencies bypassing the USD - and US sanctions. The BRICS bloc has already begun granting loans from its New Development Bank and conducting trade in national currencies. issafrica.org/iss-today/serg…

While 🇷🇺 GDP & FDI in Africa are dwarfed by 🇨🇳 or 🇪🇺 ones, Moscow promotes economic opportunities in agriculture, hydrocarbons or digital technologies to several African govt -some of them considered as pariah states. It's geopolitics that matters anyway ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…

Security is also part of the game: the infamous #WagnerPMC has secured partnerships with resource-rich states that faced security challenges and struggled with weak governance, sometimes feeling abandoned by its Western partners
ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…

To know more about 🇷🇺African strategy after Ukraine, have a look at this dossier I co-edited with @lu_ragazzi ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…

I've also analysed Lavrov's trip and the wider Russian strategy in Africa on @BBC__newsday today. You can listen to the podcast here (from min.28:10):

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1…