Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Prigozhin and #Girkin – both critics of Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s conduct of the war and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)–are likely competing for influence and patronage among pro-war politicians disillusioned with the progress of the war. isw.pub/UkrWar012623

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1618814597468930052

2/ ISW last fall assessed that Russian nationalists are split among three distinct groups that pursue different objectives while unilaterally criticizing the Russian MoD: Russian or proxy veterans, nationalists with their own private forces, and milbloggers & war correspondents.

3/ #Girkin represents the veteran faction due to his connections with veteran organizations such as the All-Russian Officers Assembly, while #Prigozhin is a self-proclaimed nationalist with access to a parallel military structure.

4/ While both have avidly denied their political aspirations in #Russia, they have continued to criticize the Russian MoD and the #Kremlin in an effort to boost their prominence in Russian society against the backdrop of Russian military failures.

5/ #Prigozhin and #Girkin are likely competing for favor with the same pro-war nationalist patronage networks within the #Kremlin that are represented by outspoken nationalist politicians.

6/ #Prigozhin’s attack on #Girkin may benefit #Putin, however. Prigozhin is very prominent in the Russian information space, and many milbloggers accused Girkin of lacking combat experience and cowardice in response to this exchange.

7/ Prigozhin may have attempted to undermine #Girkin to gain influence in the nationalist space while also but not necessarily intentionally discrediting one of #Putin's most prominent critics. #Prigozhin is likely trying to maximize his influence to avoid Girkin’s fate.