1/ Part 2 -
Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on January 29, 2022
Datas/figures.
first thing first today's recap :
2/ Week / (weeks reminder) recap
3/ early weeks recap & month recap
(NB. the weeks are from Sunday to Sunday but the month recap is from 24th (first day of war to 23rd of the following month)
4/ weeks before reaching critical limits for current RU army - at this format-
(i take 5800 MBTs bc 15% to add and extra 10-15% for repair = approx 7.6k to 8.5k)

Slope is quite steep this week directly acting on the current global stat (like in the scheme if you need info)
5/ i do not have updated graphics but here some to help you visualize some datas if need be
(with the help of Peter!)
6/ if needed some materials and complementary informations here as a reminder (unroll the thread)
7/ Also for the people telling "yeah but Russians are still advancing" etc etc - and before my next Macro analysis...
just watch this map again... &consider to get OUT of some very closed-up/magnified "maps" sometimes.
nothing is going wrong
8/ considering the Gigantic amount of men and materials Ru have poured in, during these last months.
on the contrary .. it shows how Ukraine is managing really well (considering who they are facing) what is happening now.
also consider this 1km/month on the "worst" area.
9/ recap of the day from gen staff
to date - i still need to do a thread about missiles & what might certainly remains as twittos claims r clearly BS & not even able to understand the com tactics of SBU/Budanov when he "presumably" assess the remaining stock or production rate.
10/ to make you smile, some VERY important graphic concerning the famous #Leopard2 😅😅😅👋
11/ Also did you know that #Bakhmut existed over 100 years before #USA was established?
Here's the map of Cossack city and fortress of #Bakhmut in 1618 (from @EuromaidanPR )
and also this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…
taken in April 2014 - back to Ukr in July !!
So keep cool people !
12/ #Leopard2 again
13/ ok and last but not least (as usual)
i'm just going to paste here the datas of killed in ukraine (we could also apply a safe 15%-20% on top of that, as we always have some delay to actual and real reports)
14/ "Leur ais-je donner assez de support de réflexion?...J'espère qu'ils auront bien compris tous les tableaux, il ne manquerait plus qu'ils me demandent des infos jusqu'à minuit.... "

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More from @HeliosRunner

Jan 31
Hello there!
Ru have failed in all their attacks.
Quite a lot of losses yesterday on Ru sides.
#Ukraine remains strong everywhere.
Have a good day friends! take care you all!
2/ Ru are trying not to use as much as heavy armored vehicles as they did last week as they directly experienced the hedgehog strategy (willingly chosen by #Zaloujni #Zaluzhny) so we are still "contemplating" thousands of Ru bodies impacted every single days... #RussianLosses ImageImage
3/ Gen staff reports :#Zsu grateful for the support and help #Canada and #GreatBritain !
Engineering training is important in identifying places where explosive objects r installed & ways to identify how mines r installed & defuse booby traps.
Saper job all the way babe! ImageImageImage
Read 15 tweets
Jan 30
Hello there!
Have a good day my friends!

1/ small recap from this night and this morning actions (only where it has make a diff) : Image
2/ In the #Bakhmut surroundings, #UAarmy has repelleed some direct attacks by the Ru in the areas of #Rozdolivka, #Vasyukivka, #Paraskoviyivka, #Bakhmut south /west
indicating that now, and for certain, Ru troops have globally crosser the river & are directly moving on.
it Image
3/ seems to me from the raports i have checked and reports i've read from diff units that Ukr in the area have greatly suffered from having lots of losses in past months of direct battle & young soldiers with no much experiences except from 4 months, r not entirely up to the task
Read 16 tweets
Jan 29
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on January 29, 2022
#RussianArmy is still moving forward in a dozen of different areas & put maximum pressure but these are still very minor success. North #Bakhmut area one of them.
#AFU not in #Kreminna
#UkraineMap
2/ Quick recap.
first, about #Kupiansk #Svatove area
the general FEBA line remained quite the same for the last couple months even if extremely violent combats are happening everywhere & Ru trying to push back #UAarmy everywhere & vice versa. no real gain. only attrition for both
3/ the only thing that is quite "annoying" imo is that #UAarmy had to defend & destroyed (digesting) a very important "mass" of Vatniks there, & they r still enable to secure a famous natural line of defense that would have give them some "air" before Spring & next Ru offensives
Read 28 tweets
Jan 29
Hello There !
Bon dimanche à tous !
Щасливої ​​неділі всім моїм друзям!
#Ukraine
2/ Hello to Nate @natemook who is doing a tremendous/outstanding job out there, even when it's real cold out there (as you can tell) & i wish all the best to all the amazing & good people out there like Irina & Igor!
3/ Bonjour à l'ami @CedricMas qui, mais est il nécessaire de le rappeler encore, nous fait part de son suivi quotidien sur ce conflit...
et qui est un fervent observateur de toutes les manipulations de la part de la Russie et depuis bien des années..
Read 10 tweets
Jan 29
1/ C'était prévu... le #SBU @ServiceSsu & Podoliak avaient indiqué qu'allait survenir une longue/ tres structurée & violente campagne de déstabilisation (num mais pas que : psyops globale) afin de détruire la réputation des #Ukrainiens pour faire plier les volontés occidentales..
2/ Je pense qu'ils vont aussi essayé de déstabiliser des comptes ayant une certaines "importances", qu'ils ont préalablement bien identifiés & dont je fais parti.
pourquoi je dis ça me direz vous. simplement parce que depuis exactement 48h j'ai noté un afflux constant de nvx
3/ followers aux profils tres tres particuliers ; africain - avec tous une TL "à peu près clean" mais lorsque que l'on regarde les réponses ou like, bcp sont uniquement là pour rt des infox ou casser du "Fra" en Afrique etc.
d'autres part, ces comptes ont des dates de crea tres
Read 14 tweets
Jan 28
1/ Alors ça aussi autre gros "sujet" ces derniers jours... puisque mon "chouchou" Piotr Toltstoï a fait parler de lui..
mais en réalité moi je me suis marrer qd j'ai vu la rediff de l'interview.
c'est du grand grand théâtre RuCCCP rien d'autre!
j'ai vu bcp de commentaires sur
2/ sa "volonté" et détermination etc..
du vent dans le vent.
vous avez surement loupé tout un ensemble d'informations qu'il nous a lui meme fourni par son langage corporel lors des principaux messages.
Pour faire simple il ne croit pas une seconde à ce qu'il raconte, et ce sur
3/ quasiment tous les sujets.
il a même et cela m'a meme surpris -tant c'était criant- baisser les yeux et la voix, sur les "buts de guerre" en disant que comme on (nous) ne savez rien, cela leur permettrait au besoin d'arrêter qd ils voudraient en disant que les objectifs
Read 5 tweets

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