Pretty amazing video from a #Ukrainian amphibious incursion across the Dnieper from #Kherson to the #Russian held eastern bank. Source reported it recently, purports to be taken Feb 3rd. Cannot verify that & not sure if it was released previously. New to me. Geolocated below.
The fast boat we see is likely coming to pick up the UA soldiers & not drop them off though hard to tell. At first glance the raid seems rather pointless, endangering the men's lives for no obvious potential gain. The RU reaction likewise seems overkill as it is unlikely to have
killed any of the UA troops but did cause much damage on their side of the river. This alone could be the main point of the raid, plus intel gathering including noting the RU reaction. It is evident however that the RU forces at this point prefer a standoffish position along the
river due to accurate Ukrainian (Western provided) artillery on the west bank that can hit their forces. This is why even a small incursion like this is detected by air assets alone and dealt with artillery. Without the artillery danger from the other bank, some armored vehicles
would have quickly neutralized the small landing team (without destroying several buildings on the delta). Though the RU reaction may be a bit wasteful of property, the UA action as has been typical as careless with its men's lives. In any event, the action in broad daylight so
clearly captured by a Russian UAV shows us that like all fronts, the Kherson front remains tense and that neither side can afford to depopulate its respective bank of troops, without risking an advance from the other.
The key event currently occurring in #Ukraine is the operational encirclement of #Bakhmut. I have not commented on it in a while since there is plenty of coverage on it & there are other underreported strategic battles going on. I also commented on it many months ago. Back in May
I suggested that surrounding it was much preferable than a direct assault (as RU was wont to do at the time) back in May
& that is after the Severodonetsk cauldron would be closed (which was sealed coincidently also as we discussed prior at Bilohorivka) &
after taking the needed routs north and south of the city. I proposed the following potential routes to close the cauldron & surround but not enter Bakhmut from the north. A few days later I commented on the unreported salient south of Popasna and how it was the key to both the
The mercurial & intrepid Yevgeny #Prigozhin, head of the famed PMC "Wagner" Group (currently critical in the battles around Bakhmut), purportedly in the navigator seat of a SU-24 bomber over the conflict zone. Unlike many other leading Putin supporters, he is anything but boring.
#Prigozhin states that they return from a bombing run in Bakhmut. Tomorrow he will get on a Mig-29 (air-to-air fighter). Politely (with formal address) challenges #Zelensky to meet in the air. If Zelensky wins, he takes Artemovsk (Bakhmut), if not, RU advances to (the) Dnipro.
Unfortunately, #Zelensky, having no flight suit, but only a green shirt, will not be able to participate in the duel.
Perhaps if #Biden can provide the gear through an aid package drawdown? Add it to the deficit. Many lives could be saved.
This operation is proceeding fairly rapidly as we discussed. There are conflicting reports about UA withdrawals of Bilohorivka, and the RU capture of the town. Either way, there are solid reports of attacks from the southeast towards Hryhorivka & Serebrinka as the Russian forces
press northwards against the forest belt and southwards against it from the Kreminna front. The UA forces again face an option to withdraw from Bilohorivka or face their encirclement. They may already have made their choice, we will see as we get further clarity on the situation
on the ground. We must keep in mind that securing this wide forest belt between Kreminna and the Donets river is important for several reasons concurrently. For the UA, this forest belt is a highway of troops protected from detection from the air to threaten Kreminna & the vital
Following up on the Kreminna forest front. I believe it is critical for #Russian forces to seal off the length of the forest belt along the Siverskyi river. To do to this southern forest flank precisely what they were not able to do to the western flank of the Izium forest belt
a few months back (and as discussed in the quoted previous post). So this is what we are talking about, a combination of complex river system (Siverskyi Donets) or alluvial plain with natural dense forests, and a wider managed forestry plantation. Russia has been able to hold
Dobrova (which was key), and edges of the forest south of Kreminna. Torske and Zarichne are held by UA forces easily supplied from a build up in Lyman. However, with Dibrova in RU hands, UA forces are using river crossings in the south from the Siversk front to greatly multiply
We now get to discuss the #Kreminna front finally. In light red (DPA map)we see very roughly future likely #Russian lines of advance around #Bakhmut & #Siversk. Hope to discuss those again in detail but for now let us assume these involve an operational encirclement of Bakhmut
(followed by a total one) and an advance on Siversk by hitting the strong eastern UA line from the rear, and advancing northwards along the high ground. This would push the front to the final Donbass line of defense, the formidable Kostyanivka - Slovansk line. The menacing
creature to the Russian effort is the often ignored Kreminna front, especially its thick forest belt. It is here where UA forces can leverage their preference for forest cover and assault the less densely defended northern/Kharkhov front, where they made such large gains a few
#Russian sources have released this striking video purported to be of an S-300 AA battery being destroyed around Kreminna (a front I wish to update about shortly). I however have geolocated it to Lisa Stinka
aout 70km from the Kreminna front line. The S-300 is a very powerful proven anti air system. If the video is indeed new, the relative ease in which the RU UAV is flying over enemy territory to direct a strike on a S-300 (can't verify that but it does look like it) battery deep
behind enemy lines is further proof of the growing confidence and proficiency of of RU forces in the air. #Ukraine started out the war with up to 100 S-300 systems, though most were likely in a bad state of disrepair and many have been destroyed. However, a core group of working