Thread by @TheFactFindr

#IMPORTANT The #MSCI Weight Reduction in #AdaniGroup is Just the Start of more events to come.

I highlighted the likelihood of #MSCI in the #THREAD BELOW

https://twitter.com/TheFactFindr/status/1619218782941245440

1/n what did MSCI Say ?
"MSCI has received feedback from a range of market participants concerning the eligibility"
“Characteristics of certain investors have sufficient uncertainty that they should no longer be designated as free float pursuant to our methodology.”

=> basically MSCI felt there is truth in what #Hindenburg portrayal of a "Close Relationship" with the FIIs
MSCI Also Said
"This determination has triggered a free float review of the Adani Group securities" which will be informed in Mid-feb and implemented by End-feb

Using the analysis of the Hindenburg Research report, rough numbers indicate (my calculations) outflows.
Adani Ent: $95mn
Adani Pow: $25mn
Adani Total Gas: $220mn
Adani Trans: $210mn
Adani Green & Adani Port dont get impacted.

In my there are several more events that would be triggered by #MSCI and purely based on my opinion.
1) Index Provider FTSE will also implement the same but the impact would not be as large
2) As more data emerges on the other FIIs not mentioned in the #HindenburgReport

2 contd) there could be more weightage tweaks

3) An action by MSCI and FTSE would put pressure on the #NSE to also consider their free float. BIG ONE

4) Its very possible that pending investigation, #SEBI could put restrictions on the so called #AdaniGroup friendly FIIs/FPIs.

5) Significant losses for $ #BOND holders & #Equity holders (ETFs) of ADANI group Secuities, given concerns around the web of entities & money highlighted by #Hindenburg, #WSJ, #FT Analytics, a potential CLASS ACTION Lawsuit against #AdaniGroup is quite possible IMHO.

6) IMHO, this would put even more pressure on the likes of @LICIndiaForever whos the ONLY Active Discretionary Institutional Buyer of #Adanigroup (Ex ports & cement) stocks to hold off... basically NOT DOUBLE DOWN.....

7) IMHO, given very (1) limited CASH FLOW support, (2) Limited incremental buying (3) NO Valuation Support with Significantly lower DCF valuation vs Current mkt Price... there is likely to be pain for equity holders

8) Pressure on the Stock Price would also put pressure on Lenders - both Organized and Unorganized - to also reduce but for sure NOT ADD INCREMENTAL exposure to the group which Required TONS of CAPITAL every year.

9) Recall that GROUP Debt rose in FY21 from Net Debt of 1.2 lac cr to 2.2 lac Cr despite group operational Cash flows..... that's a massive 1 LAC CRORE of INCREMNETAL borrowing in FY22.
But this does not include many recent acquisitions.

9 contd) ACEM & ACC $10bn Acquisition happened in FY23. The Port in Israel, Egypt & Sri Lanka and potentially Bengal happened in FY23. NDTV happened in FY23. It's very easy to lose count.

Mere Dost Picture Abhi Baki Hai

Some Other #AdaniGroup related New... #Bangladesh

Bangladesh wants to renegotiate power deal with Adani. No wonder. Exclusive analysis for AdaniWatch shows Bangladesh will be paying double the cost of power from other plants.
adaniwatch.org/is_bangladesh_…

#Total Energies is likely to put on hold the $4Bn Investment in #AdaniHydrogen
ft.com/content/10c093…

#AdaniGroup The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the #UK has launched a probe against Adani Group and Elara Capital.
livemint.com/news/world/ada…

@WSJ did their own Research. Adani Offshore Investor Has Links to Adani. wsj.com/articles/adani…