Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello There!
everything's (almost) ok this morning...
Take a walk.. have a good day you all!
#SlavaUkraïni

1/n

2/ ok... short debrief to what happened yesterday evening. 'plus de peurs que de mal"
What happened is as i said in S-West #Bakhmut to #TchassivYar it was only scouting & probing and they were destroyed easily.
What happened close to #KrasnaHora area is that stupid #Wagner

3/ went "alone" to try to do something major, just because certainly #Prigozhin gave direct orders... but they were not supported from a joint forces ops with regular Ru army.. so they effing "failed". in Some places they even withdraw..
reminder :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1623800006103691264

4/ the situation is most difficult right now is in the area of #Kreminna
i have no direct report out of all the "regular channels" there, & it seems that they all agree on the fact that Ru are pushing there as much as they can & bringing in more heavy materials every day.

5/ clearly they have AT LEAST the objective to go back to administrative border by end of the month, & surely as explained 1000times, go back to #Lyman up to #Severskiy donets river this coming spring...
so right now it's really a huge battle there ! no doubt abt it.
ok in .

6/ up north Ru are trying to scout and push some small units to #Kupiansk direction but not success same to #Stelmakhivka & elsewhere they are just preparing for future offensive.
what is "interesting" is that we can clearly see that there is no real "command" there...

7/ Ru are not even working on their "push" in regard to joint operations elsewhere..
it's just crap right now up there, in the N-E they are just losing recce units for nothing....
IMO they just put in their report at the end of the day : "we tried!"

8/ Also this is what it looked like yesterday.. We still need to recognize that Ru forces r quite close to #Koupiansk #Купянськ & it will certainly be in coming weeks as intense there as in Kreminna area right now. because this is a true important place to secure for both armies

9/ out of that, the frontline remains the same..
nothing to add.
and i still don't even understand how can RU are not even able to seize #Mariinka as it is only a pile of rubble now...

10/ just one last thing though..;
some "huge" reports yesterday :
Russia's new offensive force has prepared
- 1800 tanks
- 3950 armored vehicles
- 2700 artillery units
- 810 self propelled guns
- 400 jets
- 300 helicopters

To be launched in next coming weeks
but... wait.

11/ we had some "reports" like that before... and nothing really came true after a while...
so let's not confuse what they still have in reserve & the forces they will "push" for real at one go, & how (joint ops) & what will remain in the "rear" etc etc..
tsn.ua/ato/velikiy-na…

12/ Also in terms of artillery we still need to see how they'll overcome their own limits in terms of ammo & what is the real support they will have from dedicated intel teams (it takes huge ressources)

Anyway.. just to end this report :
Alleged Russians losses yesterday.
nice

13/ and this what Ru are using right now to try to probe for next gen major attack.
because to be honest, as they did not used much lately, we can expect for next big offensive, a major volley of everything they still have in reserve...
so one time 150 or like more recently,

14/ on 2 or 3 diff days (just to have proper feed back and reajust) they can send up to 150 missiles -like #Kalibr and maybe hundred-ish of #Shahed

we also will see soon about that.

ok that's it for now! see you later!
let's back to work!